Indien je erin gelooft eventueel terugkopen na de fusie.
- Forum verkenner
- Berichten: 44
- Lid geworden op: 11 feb 2017 15:58
- waarderingen: 13
Agrium and Potash clear final regulatory hurdlesjos schreef:Potash Corporation - Rally Will Continue Above $20
Dec. 22, 2017
Potash Corp. breaks through the $20 level, yet main positive catalysts have not yet materialized.
The upcoming sale of SQM stake as well as merger with Agrium should support the stock.
The story of Uralkali shows why Potash Corp. shares deserve the premium of the "best in breed".
bron:https://seekingalpha.com/article/413339 ... ontinue-20
Staat nu boven de 20 USD. De Belegger die potash corporation in haar model portefeuille had, heeft een verkoopsorder geplaatst aan dagwaarde. Angst om de 30% roerende voorheffing te moeten betalen bij de fusie met Agrium. Ik overweeg ook om nu te verkopen.
Anderzijds: "The merger is conditioned on the sale of SQM within 18 months of the merger so the sale will happen. What is uncertain is the price that the sale will fetch but the virtues of the merger are not dependent on that price. POT paid a pittance for its interest in SQM that is now worth billions which does speak well for its business acumen in having made that acquisition. Given your despondent outlook on the prospects for Nutrien going forward, it does not sound as if it would be your cup of tea."
Dit is een comment bij de seekingalpha bijdrage.
Dec. 27, 2017 2:51 PM
The merger of equals between Potash Corporation (NYSE:POT) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU) received its final regulatory clearance with an approval from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
The merger transaction is expected to close on January 1.
"This final clearance marks a significant milestone in bringing two industry leaders together," says Agrium CEO Chuck Magro.
The new entity will be called Nutrien and trade under the ticker symbol NTR.
bron:https://seekingalpha.com/news/3320220-a ... email_link
Feb. 5, 2019
Nutrien (NTR -0.6%) agrees to acquire Actagro, a manufacturer of environmentally sustainable soil and plant health products and technologies, for $340M.
NTR says Actagro's premier commercial portfolio includes ~30 specialty products that have a track record of increasing crop productivity and financial returns for growers.
NTR expects the deal to be accretive to earnings in the first year and to generate ~$55M in run-rate EBITDA two years after closing with the realization of synergies and organic growth opportunities.
bron:https://seekingalpha.com/news/3429783-n ... email_link
Nutrien is het voormalige Potash Corporation.
Nutrien: Strong Long-Term Dividend Stocksjos schreef:"Agrium, Potash get OK for merger from Canada
Sep. 11, 2017 5:55 PM ET|About: Agrium Inc. (AGU)|By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor
Agrium (AGU +2.8%) and Potash (POT +3%) have gotten an unconditional OK from the Canadian Competition Bureau for their merger via a no-action letter today.
The two had previously gotten unconditional approvals in Russia and Brazil, while it awaits results in the U.S., China and India.
The CCB says the deal isn't likely to lead to a lessening or prevention of competition in potash, phosphate fertilizers and nitric acid.
The two expect to close the deal and become "Nutrien" by the end of Q4."
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3294753-a ... email_link
Aandeelhouders van POT zouden 4 aandelen Nutrien krijgen.
POT heeft ook 33% van de aandelen van het lithium mining comp. SQM
Aug. 22, 2019
Nutrien has multiple long-term growth catalysts in their favor.
The Ag industry is about at the bottom the cycle with plenty of potential upside ahead.
Nutrien's stock is trading at reasonable valuation levels, which allows for price appreciation.
The healthy cash flow is conducive to maintain and increase the dividend over time.
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Nutrien (NTR) is sitting in a good place right now as the company believes that we are at the bottom of the Ag industry business cycle. The company strongly feels that there is more upside than downside for their business from here.
Sure the company faced headwinds in the first half of this year with poor weather conditions for growers. However, there are multiple positive growth catalysts that can help drive strong results for Nutrien for multiple decades. The stock's reasonable valuation leaves room for price appreciation as Nutrien continues to grow revenue and earnings.
Long-Term Outlook for the Agriculture Industry
Nutrien is poised to benefit from the long-term positive growth factors associated with the Ag industry. Nutrien provides fertilizer (potash, nitrogen, and phosphate) and other products to growers. The company is positioned well in the industry as the largest provider of crop inputs in the world.
There is expected to be 2 billion more people in the world to feed as the global population is expected to grow to 10 billion by 2050. This is expected to drive a 50% increase in the demand for protein over the next 30 years. Over the same time period, the amount of arable land is expected to decrease by 25%. These conditions make it likely that farmers will need to grow more efficiently while minimizing growing costs.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that Wheat, one of the most highly traded commodities is expected to experience an 18% increase in trade through 2028. Wheat consumption is expected to increase 11.5% through 2028.
Other commodities are expected to grow globally over this period as well. Rice and cotton are projected to experience consumption increases of 5.5% and 25% respectively. Soybeans and corn are expected to experience trade increases of 23.4% and 32.5% respectively.
Nutrien's crop inputs can help farmers achieve more efficient growth with high crop yields. Therefore, with long-term increases expected for top crops, Nutrien is likely to experience growing demand for their crop input products.
Nutrien's Competitive Advantages
Nutrien might be the best positioned company in the Ag industry. The reason for that is a result of the company's large size and competitive advantages. Nutrien's large size means that their 1,700 retail facilities are conveniently located for many farmers. Their vast distribution network is key to the company's success. The supply chain gets products to customers quickly and cost effectively.
The company's retail segment comprises about 67% of Nutrien's total revenue. So, it has a significant impact on Nutrien's top and bottom lines.
Another competitive advantage is Nutrien's integrated business model. Nutrien has 3,300 agronomists and field experts working closely with growers to help them maximize crop yields in cost effective ways. This system allows Nutrien to understand their customers' needs in order to provide them with the products that they need to grow successfully.
Nutrien is designed as a one-stop shop for growers. This makes the process of purchasing crop inputs more convenient and less of a hassle for their customers.
Nutrien's Business Segments Analysis
Nutrien's retail locations supply growers with crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, merchandise (animal health products, fencing, irrigation & storage equipment, etc.), and services such as soil/leaf testing, precision agriculture services, etc.
The retail segment had issues early this year due to unfavorable weather conditions. The weather was too wet in the U.S. and too dry in Australia. The volatile weather is one of the main risks for Nutrien. Farmers need the right amount of rain without flooding conditions for successful growing seasons.
Nutrien's retail business experienced a 1% decline in comp store sales in the 1st half of 2019 over the same period in 2018. Normalized comp store sales (accounting for the effect of foreign exchange rates) decreased by 3%. Although these results appear to be weak, they are pretty good considering that the Ag industry experienced a downturn over the past year and the growing season was poor so far in 2019. This demonstrates Nutrien's ability to hold up well during agriculture slowdowns.
Nutrien achieved an overall sales increase of 2% for the retail segment in the first half of 2019 as compared to the first half of 2018. These were solid results considering that it was a poor growing season in the first half of 2019. In the 1st half of 2019, sales of crop nutrients and seed increased, but sales of crop protection products, merchandise, and services were down. EBITDA for the retail segment declined 8% in the 1st half of the year.
If the Ag industry is on the verge of recovering as Nutrien expects, then the retail business is poised to perform well going forward. Of course, that depends on the weather being favorable for successful crop seasons.
The first half of 2019 was considered the worst planting season in history. Despite that, net sales for the Potash segment increased 27% and EBITDA increased 42% in the 1st half of 2019.
The Potash segment is diversified since it is applied to a wide range of crops. Nutrien is forecasting global demand for potash to be 65 million to 67 million tons for 2019. This was lowered from a previous estimate of 67 million to 69 million. The new estimate is about in-line with the global demand of 66.5 million tons from 2018....
...Nutrien's Reasonable Valuation
Here's a snapshot of how Nutrien compares to their peers:
Nutrien Mosaic (MOS) CF Industries (CF)
Forward PE 16.2 9.7 16.3
Price to Sales 1.5 0.78 2.24
EV/EBITDA 9.57 6.12 9.72
Mosaic does have Nutrien and CF Industries beat on valuation. However, Mosaic experienced a series of earnings estimate reductions in 2019. Mosaic had 19 downward EPS revisions in the past 90 days. The revisions for 2019 declined drastically by 29% from $1.75 per share down to $1.24. That typically puts negative price pressure on the stock, which was the case this year as the stock is in a declining trend.
Although Nutrien is trading higher than Mosaic, the stock is still at reasonable valuation levels, especially with the EV/EBITDA ratio below 10. Nutrien also has better cash flow than Mosaic leading to a higher dividend yield. Mosaic's dividend only yields 1%. Nutrien's reasonable valuation should allow the stock to grow as the company continues to increase overall EBITDA at a strong pace through 2023.
All three of these companies face the same long-term tailwinds and will probably perform well over the long-term. Nutrien has the advantage of having the largest retail network and being the largest potash producer.
Risks to the Investment Thesis
There is still some uncertainty regarding the trade situation between the U.S. and China. The final outcome could affect the demand for crops being exported out of the United States. If an unfavorable outcome occurs for the U.S. agriculture industry, it could have a negative effect on Nutrien's sales.
Consolidation among Nutrien's peers or increased competition could eat into Nutrien's market share. This could lead to less growth for Nutrien in the future.
The Agriculture business depends on favorable weather to thrive. Seasons that are too wet or too dry could reduce demand for Nutrien's products/services.
Long-Term Nutrien Investment Outlook
Although there are unfavorable weather conditions occasionally in the short-term that could negatively affect Nutrien and their customers, it is important to look at the company with a long-term perspective. The global trends of long-term population growth driving increased demand for crops and lower arable land over time are likely to drive long-term growth for Nutrien.
The stock's reasonable valuation leaves room for growth as revenue and earnings increase over multiple years. With the Ag cycle at a possible bottom, there is likely to be more upside than downside for Nutrien from here.
erefore, the stock has the potential to perform better going forward than the stagnating range it has been trading in recently. In the meantime, investors are awarded with a decent 3.6% yielding dividend. With long-term growth in Nutrien's favor, the dividend has a good chance of increasing over time.
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/428738 ... dend-stock
Anglo American Plc has moved to buy a giant U.K. potash mine that was running out of money, adding another major growth project for the century-old miner.
The deal for Sirius Minerals Plc is likely to secure 1,200 jobs and save the development of a mine in one of the U.K.’s most economically deprived areas. It’s also a further sign that Anglo is committed to growing its business -- adding a second major project to its Peruvian copper-mine development -- at a time when most rivals are reluctant to expand.
Anglo said it’s in advanced talks with Sirius about a possible 5.5 pence-a-share offer that values the company at about $508 million. While that’s a premium of 34% on Sirius’s closing share price on Jan. 7, the company was worth more than $2.3 billion 18 months ago, before its funding plans dried up.
Sirius’s plans were thrown into doubt last year after it suspended a bond sale, required to unlock a $2.5 billion credit facility from JPMorgan Chase & Co. The company was forced in November to scale back its plans, but had also said it was talking with potential investors or buyers.
Anglo said it will build the mine for the same $3.1 billion that Sirius earmarked in its updated plan. Anglo shares fell 1.7%, while Sirius rallied as much 46%, before trading 32% higher as of 9:11 a.m. in London.
The deal will be a huge relief for an economically depressed region. Overlooking the seaside town of Whitby, the setting for part of Bram Stoker’s “Dracula,” Sirius has already started work on two giant shafts and a 37-kilometer (23-mile) tunnel to transport the potash to the port at Teesside. Once a key steelmaking region, it’s fallen on hard times as plants closed. Some locals are set to benefit from mineral rights, while others have bought shares in the company.
Sirius, backed by Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart, plans to extract polyhalite from a mine more than a mile deep. One of the shafts is already more than 100 meters deep, with 1,200 staff and contractors on site.
So far, the company has spent about $1.5 billion, including building a plant to make concrete supports for the tunnel. Once in production, Sirius planned to employ about 1,000 people and export $2.5 billion in potash each year.
For Anglo it adds a major potash resource as the company looks to retreat from thermal coal.
“We are unashamedly transitioning our portfolio to later cycle products that we believe the world will need as it goes forward,” Chief Financial Officer Stephen Pearce said on a call with reporters.
The miner has been cutting thermal coal production in recent years, with output falling from as much as 80 million tons to less than 30 million tons. In recent months, it has been hinting that it will look to move away from the dirtiest fuel altogether.
It also further separates Anglo from its larger diversified rivals. The company is already in the process of building a $5 billion copper mine in Peru, albeit with a Japanese partner to cut the cost and risk. While the company has also been returning money to shareholders, it’s been more measured than Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group.
“We fundamentally believe part of our responsibility is to keep an eye on growth over all the aspects of different time frames,” said Pearce. He said the company doesn’t expect the deal to change its dividend policy.
It also marks a return for Anglo both to fertilizer and the U.K. The company sold its phosphates business in Brazil in 2016 as it looked to weather a crisis. It exited the U.K. before that, when it sold its Tarmac business.
Sirius said on Wednesday that, subject to the successful outcome of talks, it has indicated to Anglo that it expects to recommend a firm offer at the price set out in the proposal.
Anglo said it reserves the right to reduce any offer by the amount of any dividend or other distribution by Sirius. Under U.K. takeover rules, the company has until Feb. 5 to announced a firm intention to make an offer.
Bank of America Corp. and Centerview Partners U.K. LLP are the joint financial advisers to Anglo, while JPMorgan is advising Sirius.
bron: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-minerals
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