Daarom deze nieuwe subfolder over een aandeel dat ik al enige tijd volg:
"Pinterest: My Top Stock For 2022
Dec. 31, 2021 10:21 AM ETPinterest, Inc. (PINS)FB, META, PYPL, SHOP18
Pinterest has executed solidly ever since IPO by investing in advertising, new products and international expansion. This has led to consistent revenue growth.
Arguably, the only blemish on Pinterestâ€™s results is the variability in MAU growth, caused by COVID-19.
Pinterestâ€™s current valuation indicates that growth would be over. More likely, Pinterest could still grow for many years, given its many recent investments and innovations.
Although it is unknown when the stock will start to recover, the current stock price provides a high likelihood for long-term outperformance since Pinterest remains in the early innings of its platform monetization.
Apple iPhone XR resultaat Homepage Pintste toepassing op mobiele
5./15 WEST/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) stock has been beaten down ever since the MAU trend began to reverse to the downside, which has spooked investors. Pinterest has seen further downside pressure due to the general anti-growth market sell-off lately, in the wake of the failed PayPal (PYPL) acquisition. However, Pinterest is still quite early in the monetization of its platform, which could continue to propel growth for many years.
Pinterest is a social media company that has core use-case that allows its users to browse and save inspirational images. Like other social media peers, Pinterest then monetizes its users through ads.
Simple enough, but for Pinterest, this is only the beginning. As it turns out, Pinterestâ€™s use cases align quite well with shopping and e-commerce. Indeed, some have called this social commerce, and Pinterest has been investing for many quarters in making its platform shoppable. This started with product catalog uploads. Last year, this expanded towards Pinterest partnering with Shopify (SHOP), and currently, Pinterest is starting to make the full shopping experience possible on-platform through seamless checkout. Pinners engaging with shopping surfaces increased 20% QoQ and 60% YoY and Pinterest entered seven new markets.
Additionally, like other platforms such as Meta Platforms (FB) Instagram, Pinterestâ€™s newest investment is in video and a creator ecosystem around this media type. This should drive increased engagement in the long term. To this end, Pinterest introduced the Idea Pin as its "video-first native content format". This format is focused on inspirational and actionable content rather than entertainment like most platforms. Hence, this is a differentiated feature.
Pinterest further expanded on this format in Q3 through the introduction of Takes and Pinterest TV. Indeed, if it sounds like Pinterest is heavily innovating, this is correct since Pinterest has also hired a chief content officer, announced TwoTwenty as a high-velocity experimental product team and acquired Vochi to further improve its video tools.
The end-goal is to integrate pins, video, ads and shopping to create a truly social commerce beast.
Lastly, Pinterest is also investing in its international (monetization) expansion. Although Pinterest entered a few dozen new markets in the last two years, international ARPU still trails the U.S. by over 10x.
Pinterest has executed its strategy very strongly since its IPO, and this is also visible in its financials. In Q3, revenue grew 43% to $633M, although the QoQ growth was negligible. Still, note that Pinterest was lapping a 58% growth quarter in 2020.
Pinterestâ€™s revenue can be broken down into two pieces: MAU (monthly active users) and ARPU (average revenue per user).
One of the main concerns in 2022 regarding Pinterest has been its ability to grow its userbase, or its lack thereof. MAU growth started to decline in Q1 and even declined sequentially in Q2. Nevertheless, from a long-term viewpoint, Pinterest MAUs are still up by about 50% since IPO.
MAU volatility can easily be attributed to COVID-19, since Pinterest saw a large spike in users at the onset of COVID-19. Nevertheless, Pinterest's trend prior to COVID-19 was to add about 15M users per quarter. This means Pinterest is currently at around the userbase that investors would have expected by now if there had been no COVID-19. In other words, in the bullish case, Pinterest should soon start to resume MAU growth (although there is admittedly no evidence yet for a MAU recovery).
Offsetting the MAU weakness has been ARPU growth. Although this metric tends to be quite lumpy and seasonal, U.S. ARPU has grown by nearly 2x in two years from 2.93 to 5.55. International ARPU has grown 3x to 0.38.
Despite the majority of MAUs being international, international revenue accounted for just 21% of revenue in Q3.
Perhaps, the market is right that the Pinterest growth story is finished. After all, Pinterest has guided for just high teens growth in Q4. Estimates are in line with this guidance at ~$830M revenue.
Although this represents a solid 31% QoQ growth, Pinterestâ€™s previous Q4 QoQ growth rates were 60%, 43%, and 44%. While clearly Q4â€™20 was boosted by higher MAU growth, there could be some level of margin for a beat. Additionally, the Q1 and 2022 guidance should provide some further insight into the extent of the slowdown in growth.
Pinterestâ€™s historic financial performance combined with the many currently ongoing investments implies the long-term potential still remains significant. Hence, this view does not seem to be aligned with the stock performance over the last year. In other words, Pinterest seems fundamentally mispriced.
To recap, after a strong 2020 and trading into the $70 or even $80 range for many months, Pinterestâ€™s decline started after Q2 and, except for the brief PayPal rumors, has continued its decline back to the mid-$30s, pretty much back to where it was around IPO. Indeed, the TTM P/S has declined from 30x to 10x in less than a year and from 25x to 10x in less than half a year. The forward P/S is around 7x.
I have regularly covered Pinterest. My initial thesis was that Pinterest was positioned to replicate the performance of larger peers in social media and advertising, such as Facebook (FB). Pinterest, as a growth company, would obviously have to accomplish this by delivering continued and sustained high growth.
So, given some of the trends in the last year, 2022 may nevertheless mark an inflection for this thesis, which implies some risks. For example, Facebook has never experienced a stock decline to the same extent as Pinterest, and neither has Facebook ever stopped growing its MAU count.
Although bulls have argued Pinterest does not need to grow its MAUs to grow revenue, if Pinterest could reverse the MAU downward trend, this may bring back investor confidence. On the other hand, management has explicitly stated that it is prioritizing investments in its creator ecosystem over short-term ad revenue; this could reduce revenue growth going forward, which could delay the stock recovery and growth.
A last risk is that, despite the stock having lost so much of its value over the last year, forward analyst estimates have not been reduced accordingly. This means that Pinterest may not have the opportunity to meaningfully beat analyst estimates, which may â€“ just like the previous consideration â€“ prevent a short-term stock recovery.
In summary, the biggest near-term risk might be Pinterest guiding 2022 revenue below estimates. Analysts currently expect Pinterest to grow by over 25% in 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha). Although those are not excessive expectations given Pinterest's past track record, admittedly, the Q3 results and Q4 guidance were both not particularly remarkable. Nevertheless, this may prove to be just noise in the long term: some expect Pinterest to continue to grow double digits to perhaps ~$10B revenue by 2030 (Source: Seeking Alpha, based on 3 analysts). So, even though Pinterest is my top pick for 2022. Ultimately, Pinterest should likely be bought with a multi-year holding mindset.
Pinterestâ€™s decline in valuation from 30x to 10x TTM P/S in less than a year presents a significant investment opportunity. As described, Pinterest is still early in its monetization. Pinterest continues to invest in ads while further building out a shopping platform and creating a video and creator ecosystem. These investments could deliver significant long-term returns. Further, international revenue has also continued to increase at a high rate.
In the near term, the question is when (or if) MAUs will resume its steady long-term rate like prior to COVID-19, and to what extent ARPU growth would be able to step in to compensate for the lower ARPU.
This article was written by Arne Verheyde
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/447743 ... stock-2022
Ook nog: https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/ ... re-all-up/
Beaten-down and out-of-favor growth stocks Fastly (NYSE:FSLY), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), and Skillz (NYSE:SKLZ) were all up big today. The stocks increased a respective 6.8%, 6.6%, and 7.4% as of 3:30 p.m. ET.
There was no specific news causing the rally, but all three names have been volatile in the last month or so since the omicron variant showed up. It caps a terrible 2021 for the three fast-growing businesses as general investor sentiment has favored value stocks in year two of the pandemic. Fastly is down 57% on the year, Pinterest is down 42%, and Skillz is down 61%.
...In contrast, Pinterest is actually profitable, having generated a very healthy 15% net profit margin in its last quarter. However, the social media company's trajectory has been losing steam as many users have been spending more time away from home this year. Monthly average user growth, an important metric for social network firms, is showing signs of possibly stalling out as Pinterest laps the boom in internet use from 2020. ...
Laatste artikelen op Beursig.com
Jan. 05, 2022 7:45 AM ETPinterest, Inc. (PINS)By: Chris Ciaccia, SA News Editor
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) shares look set to rebound one day after multiple analysts urged caution on the stock, including one downgrading the stock on worries over user declines.
Pinterest (PINS) shares gained nearly 2% to $33.78 early Wednesday, after falling 9% to finish at $33.13 on Tuesday. Separately on Tuesday, Pinterest (PINS) hit a 52-week low of $32.42.
On Tuesday, Guggenheim downgraded the stock, citing Pinterest Ads Manager data, which is pointing to user declines for the second straight month, while download data also suggested further decline.
As such, Guggenheim cut its fourth-quarter estimate to 438 million users, down from 447 million.
Guggenheim also cut its price target to $39, down from $46, as the firm said it still sees "value creation potential for the company's large global user base," but it does not see the use case "developing as rapidly as peers, creating risk that competitors improve their social commerce offerings more quickly than Pinterest capitalizes on its position."
Wolfe Research started coverage on Pinterest (PINS) at Peer Perform, noting that it likes the product transition at the Ben Silbermann-led company, but it sees "near-term uncertainties on its revenue and MAU growth trajectory are likely to keep multiples under pressure."
Separately on Wednesday, Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion upgraded Pinterest (PINS) to overweight with a $53 price target, noting that the recent sell-off provides an opportunity.
Champion said 2022 is likely to see improving user trends and a "stable mobile app user base," along with an emerging e-commerce surface and progress in shopping, while adding it should see improved international monetization and an improved EBITDA profile.
"In our view, the risk/reward is now attractive for a commerce-focused advertising platform with shopping optionality and ~60% incremental EBITDA margins," Champion wrote.
Pinterest (PINS) is one of a number of high-beta stocks that sold off more than 50% from 52-week highs, suggesting the prospect of a January high-beta squeeze.
-Added throughout the day yesterday. I think the teens growth guidance will prove to be conservative. At this point I'm ok if US desktop MAU's continue to fall off a bit. Arpu is growing north of 30%. Ex-US MAU's will continue to grow and be further monetized. Trading at 8.5x forward sales. The fact remains that they have a massive MAU base that others would love to get their hands on. If PINS current leadership cant stabilize the MAU losses someone else will will eventually step in to do it for them and it will be at a share price considerably higher than yesterday's $32. Who wouldn't want a plug in acquisition that's profitable with 400M users to further monetize?
-...en meer op:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3785321-p ... r-declines
NYSE - 11/01/22 - 23H
Is er nu een bodem gelegd bij de 33 $ ?
Expectations for the digital ad giants are heavy in 2022, but Barclays is warning of some heavy buy-side forecasts that may leave buyers disappointed with slower growth.
The firm notes that the consensus forecast is for Google (GOOG, GOOGL) to grow revenues 17% this year, and for Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) to grow by 21% - and a "similar cadence for 2023." And buy-siders are likely expecting better than that.
"We are increasingly concerned these flagship names may disappoint looking ahead based on the massive penetration gains that digital advertising has realized in the past 18 months," analyst Ross Sandler and team write.
Checks for Q4 have been pretty upbeat, but "this is more of a macro call, not based on near-term trends," the firm says.
Every few years the firm says it asks itself "At what time is digital advertising going to drop below 20% growth permanent, simply because the penetration rates are too high and there simply isnâ€™t any more meaningful areas for dollars to shift over?â€ť And amid discussions over whether Facebook ads are the "new rent," Barclays is looking to some historical examples as a proxy.
As a model, it cites Google growth rates from 2010-2016 in the UK - the highest digital ad market by penetration. After crossing into the mid-30% range in penetration, despite all the innovation in mobile ads at the time, Alphabet was only able to grow in the mid-teens.
Now, after a couple of years of demand pull-forward spurred by the global COVID-19 pandemic, today's digital ad penetration sits around mid-60% worldwide, Barclays says. And while the first half of this year will be artificially lower growth due to well-understood tough comparisons, the real "disappointment could materialize" in the second half and in 2023.
Barclays is also concerned that TV could see a "mini-renaissance" this year and take some share back from digital channels (outside of YouTube (GOOG, GOOGL)).
There is a "mega-trend" that could offset the headwinds, the firm argues: Given the shift of ad budgets toward "value-based automation" at Google and Facebook, channel checks lead it to believe that "there is upwards of $10 billion of ad spend that could shift over from this increased 'smart' advertising using machine learning."
Expanding its view to the whole sector, Barclays says valuations for Alphabet and ("especially") Meta are "far from demanding currently, but are also predicated on the usual beat-and-raise cadence that weâ€™ve seen over the past 18 months." If growth starts to become a concern, the large caps could trade "sideways" and some of the small caps could feel pressure.
Its "most out-of-consensus call" is that Snap (NYSE:SNAP) could surprise to the upside, but "we are not sure if it matters given the current tape and SNAPâ€™s industry-high EV/Rev." Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) has "well over a 50% hit rate on tanking the quarter ahead of senior equity refresh" often on expenses. (That's this quarter.)
Meta (FB) and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) feel "solid" toward the higher end of guided ranges, while Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) looks more in-line, Barclays says, and may be losing share to TikTok (BDNCE) in the "experimental" line item.
The digital ad sellers (including Meta Platforms (FB), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Snap (SNAP)) were prominent in Jefferies' 2022 Internet picks
Pinterest: Engagement Concerns Are Overblown
Jan. 19, 2022 7:21 AM ETPinterest, Inc. (PINS)SNAP, TWTR6
Pinterestâ€™s (NYSE:PINS) share price has declined significantly in 2021 as the result of a decline in monthly active users (MAUs) and general concerns over growth stock valuations in an inflationary environment. There are likely to be further MAU declines in Q4 before Pinterest returns to growth in 2022. The importance of this is being overblown though as there are specific reasons for the decline and Pinterestâ€™s current user base is more than sufficient to justify its current share price. Revenue will continue to grow, driven by increasing advertiser familiarity with the platform and improving advertising and shopping tools. Pinterest should move significantly higher later in the year as user numbers stabilize, margins improve and strong revenue growth continues.
In the June quarter Pinterestâ€™s user growth slowed dramatically, which management blamed on lockdowns easing. Many of Pinterestâ€™s core use cases (dĂ©cor, gardening, cooking, DIY) benefited disproportionately from pandemic lockdowns. As a result, Pinterestâ€™s user growth through the pandemic was boosted and this has created a headwind as the economy has reopened. The impact of this has been exacerbated by the fact that many Pinners use the platform relatively infrequently and for specific purposes. Declines in pandemic use cases have been somewhat offset by an increase in out-of-home use cases, like fashion and beauty.
Pinterest was not the only platform to benefit during the pandemic though. In aggregate, social media platforms gained 490 million users in 2020, a growth rate almost double that of 2019. Social media appears to be approaching saturation though as 90% of people with access to the internet now using social media. Further growth is likely but this will be at a modest rate, driven by continued penetration amongst existing internet users and increased internet adoption. The average user has accounts on 8.4 different social platforms and spends almost 2.5 hours per day on social media. It seems unlikely that hours per user will increase significantly further, which puts a wide range of web applications in competition for user attention. This is supported by the fact that growth in internet usage per user and social media usage per user has stagnated in recent years, although mobile continues to make up an increasingly large percentage of user time on the internet (~53%).
Pinterestâ€™s user engagement over the past 12 months has varied by use case and demographic:
Shopping engagement has been more resilient than overall engagement
Search engagement rates remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels
Gen Z Pinners have been particularly engaged with Idea Pins
U.S. MAUs under 25 grew double-digits YoY in Q2 and Gen Z was Pinterestâ€™s fastest growing demographic. Gen Z users returning to school in person may have created headwinds though as there was an iOS update last year which resulted in a large amount of engagement (4 million users in Q3 2020). These were likely low-quality users that churned quickly.
MAU losses have also been concentrated amongst web-based users in the US (down double digits YoY in Q3), whereas global mobile app MAUs continue to grow double digits YoY. Low quality web-based users (less engaged) contributed to excess growth during the pandemic but are now churning. Approximately 75% of Pinners are mobile users and they contribute the vast majority of revenue, meaning continued growth here is supportive of revenue growth going forward. Web users are not worth a lot to Pinterest from a revenue perspective but are still important as they provide top of the funnel acquisition. On November 2nd US MAUs were approximately 89 million and global MAUs were approximately 447 million. Expectations are that Q4 MAUs will come in somewhere around 430 million and Pinterest believe that MAUs will return to a more seasonal growth pattern going forward.
Google implemented search algorithm changes in 2021 that potentially impacted Pinterestâ€™s web-based users. Unlike most social media platforms, Pinterest is heavily reliant on search for traffic. This is a problem that is likely to subside over time as mobile app users become increasingly dominant. Pinterest is also trying to address this problem through their creators strategy by creating content that attracts users on a regular basis rather than waiting for specific use cases to arise (published-subscribed model). Creators are a temporary headwind though as this part of the platform is not monetized. Pinterest are also investing in things like marketing, a taste graph and better personalization to increase engagement.
Pinterest is not the only company that is facing headwinds due to difficult comparisons to pandemic inflated numbers. Ecommerce platforms have also seen web traffic stagnate or decline, a problem that will likely become significantly worse as consumer spending normalizes.
Annual Web Traffic Growth
Similarly, search data points towards a temporary boost for social media and ecommerce during the pandemic that is now unwinding. The pandemic was possibly a headwind for Instagram though as the platform is largely used by people to show others what they are doing. With many people in lockdown, there was less to show. Pinterest, Etsy (ETSY) and Shopify (SHOP) all showed similar trends, an initial increase in search interest at the start of the pandemic followed by a normalization of search interest. If anything, this trend was less pronounced for Pinterest than Shopify or Etsy.
Hiring data also points towards sector wide slowdowns in ecommerce and social media, rather than Pinterest specific issues. Shopifyâ€™s hiring has slowed dramatically in recent months and job openings mentioning Shopify in the job requirements are also declining, pointing towards slower revenue growth going forward. The number of job openings has also been declining for Etsy and Snapchat (SNAP), indicating that these companies are expecting slower growth going forward.
Pinterest are attempting to transition from a place to view static images from the web to a place where people can discover immersive lifestyle content. Pinterest believe they are uniquely positioned to tie together lifestyle inspiration with communities of shared interests and planning and shopping tools. In support of this Pinterest introduced Idea Pins, which are multipage video Pins that are an evolution of Story Pins. Pinterest decided they need a Story-type product thatâ€™s different from other social platforms and hence Idea Pins are permanent. Pinterestâ€™s focus on short-form video content to drive engagement, potentially increases competition with other platforms like Snapchat, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube and could reduce the differentiation of Pinterestâ€™s platform.
Idea Pins are Pinterestâ€™s first publishing tool and they enable creators to share ideas with lasting value. Pinterest believe that Idea Pins can change Pinterest from a passive experience to active one where users are following people and brands, helping to increase engagement. Idea Pins can also provide inspiration and help users to purchase items that they have seen. Pinterest says they see 9x the average comment rate on Idea Pins compared to standard Pins. Creators already have a range of platforms to choose from with excellent monetization potential though and it may be difficult for Pinterest to gain a strong foothold in a crowded marketplace, particularly given the low engagement of most users.
InQ3 the number of weekly active Idea Pins creators had grown 30x since the start of the year, and the time spent on those Pins has been increasing as well. Idea Pins are not currently monetized as Pinterest is focused on developing the user experience first and hence, they are dragging attention from more monetized surfaces and reducing revenue growth. Pinterest believe that Idea Pins will be both engagement and revenue-accretive over time though.
In the June quarter Pinterest introduced Idea Pins to Creators in 22 markets and are also developing other new tools to help creators on the platform build their presence. Pinterestâ€™s creator code initiative aims to ensure Pinterest remains a positive and supportive environment. Pinterest will be adding new features to help creators faster community which go beyond likes and comments, including tools that let people share their creations, ask and answer questions and share encouragement and tips.
Apple User Privacy
Appleâ€™s (AAPL) privacy push has created headwinds for most companies who are reliant on mobile advertising revenue, although the size of the impact has varied significantly between companies. Snapchatâ€™s disappointing earnings in Q3 appears to have been the catalyst for a significant pullback in digital advertising stocks, after Snapchat tried to lay the blame of the lackluster performance on Apple. While Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) initiative is impacting advertisers, the impact has been relatively muted and companies are developing workarounds. In Snapchatâ€™s case, ATT appears to be the scapegoat for management over extrapolating elevated revenue growth caused by the pandemic.
The impact of ATT is dependent on the extent to which companies rely on targeted advertising and third-party signals. Pinterest do not believe that Appleâ€™s ATT policy changes have materially impacted its business. This should not be surprising given that Pinterest is more top of the acquisition funnel and less focused on directly attributing purchases to individuals. App install ads are heavily dependent on IDFA but are not a significant revenue contributor for Pinterest, which also helped to limit the impact.
Pinterest is also able to leverage strong on-platform signals in their adtech solutions. Pinterest has rich first-party data and users often have commercial intent, making Pinterest far less dependent on third party signals. Pinterest is continuing to invest in seamless checkout and believe this will also dampen the impact of privacy changes. Keeping activity on platform is becoming increasingly important as attitudes towards privacy change. If transactions occur on the platform, then Pinterest has complete attribution visibility without relying on third-party signals.
Despite the poor performance of Pinterestâ€™s stock, the companyâ€™s financial performance continues to be strong. While Pinterestâ€™s revenue growth is expected to decline to approximately 20% in Q4, it should be noted that it is still 46% over a 2-year period and a significant component of the slowdown is the difficult comparable period. The social media boycott of Facebook in late 2020 has also made the second half of 2021 a difficult comparison period for Pinterest. Pinterest also attributed the weak Q4 guidance to supply chain issues affecting CPG advertisers, higher CPAs potentially impacting price-sensitive advertisers and new features taking attention from more monetized parts of the platform. Price increases are consistent with Pinterestâ€™s strategy to grow their advertiser base, increase auction density and deliver ads more efficiently over time, but in the short-term it may increase churn for price-sensitive advertisers.
Pinterest believe the investments they have made in shopping, automation and tools are working, causing advertisers to recognize the value of Pinterestâ€™s platform. Pinterest introduced feature improvements like auto bid and campaign budget optimization for advertisers. This has contributed to revenue growth over the last 12 months and is increasing advertiser confidence in Pinterestâ€™s platform. In 2021 revenue growth was driven by larger advertisers, particularly retailers, and the international business. Revenue growth has also shifted between verticals as the pandemic has evolved, with areas like DIY normalizing and areas like travel and beauty performing strongly. Macro supply chain issues are believed to impacted advertising spend by CPG companies in Q3.
Pinterestâ€™s strategic priorities include diversifying their advertiser base and increasing the value of advertising inventory. Pinterest offers advertisers users who have commercial intent, unique user demographics and brand safety, supporting increased prices. Pinterest are also focused on increasing engagement and improving the user experience. In support of this Pinterest prioritizing Idea Pins, which are shifting people from image grids to streaming experiences. Idea Pins are not currently monetized though and this is consuming some of Pinterestâ€™s highest value ad inventory, creating temporary headwinds. The estimated negative impact of this on revenue growth was mid-single digits in Q3.
Pinterest Revenue Growth
The closer a platform is to purchasing decisions the more easily it can monetize through advertising. This places Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) in strong positions as users are often in the process of making a purchasing decision when they are shown advertisements. In comparison, Facebook has succeeded through sheer scale and the granularity of user data, which has allowed them to very accurately target users. Many people believe that Twitter has massive potential and has simply been mismanaged, while ignoring the fact that Twitter users are not planning purchasing decisions and that Twitter lacks the scale and data to compensate for this. Pinterest sits in a unique position in that users are often planning purchasing decisions, sometimes extremely large purchases (wedding, home renovation). This is somewhat offset by Pinterestâ€™s low user engagement, but it is a leap to think that Pinterest users have little value solely as a result of this.
Pinterest is positioned to be a leader in social commerce and as they build out their advertising and shopping tools and attract new advertisers their ARPU will increase. Many Pinterest users are also unmonetized or undermonetized by choice, as Pinterest is prioritizing the health of the platform. International revenue continues to grow rapidly, driven by the opening up of new geographies. Pinterestâ€™s ARPU for international users is low but this isnâ€™t because they canâ€™t monetize these users, it is because they have so far chosen not to. Pinterest engaged in a multi-year effort to localize content for international users to ensure the platform resonated internationally the same way it has in the US.
Pinterest will be opening up more Latin American markets in 2022 and will open up Japan this year as well. Pinterestâ€™s Investment efforts in LATAM and APAC are still early and these geographies are a large source of potential future growth.
Similar to other social media and ecommerce companies, Pinterest's hiring has slowed in recent months. Weak growth in employees is clearly not a positive but it should be kept in mind that Pinterestâ€™s business is extremely scalable and they can grow revenue much faster than employees.
A platform effectively monetized through advertising can be an extremely attractive business, as illustrated by Facebookâ€™s 40+% operating profit margins. Facebook has managed to achieve this despite investing massive amounts in metaverse aspirations, an increasing need to moderate their platforms and operating WhatsApp with limited monetization. Pinterest is on a path to a similar level of profitability and cash flow generation due to the natural fit of their platform to an advertising monetization strategy. Companies like Twitter have failed to achieve high margins as their advertising tools are relatively ineffective, meaning high engagement, and hence costs, are required to generate revenue.
Pinterestâ€™s free cash flow margins have also been improving rapidly as the business scales, while maintaining robust revenue growth. Pinterestâ€™s ability to generate free cash flow is supportive of the stock going forward, even if user numbers stagnate.
Pinterest now trades in line with or at an EV/S discount compared to many companies with weaker growth prospects and less profitability potential. At current prices it is not difficult to envisage Pinterest trading on a single digit PE ratio in the next 5 years. A discounted cash flow analysis with very conservative assumptions also indicates Pinterest is deeply undervalued. I estimate that Pinterest is worth at least 85 USD per share, although it is unclear how long it will take for sentiment toward the stock to turnaround.
Like many companies, Pinterest benefitted significantly from the pandemic both in terms of financial performance and valuation. Unlike many similar companies though, Pinterest now trades on lower multiples than prior to the pandemic. This likely points towards some combination of Pinterestâ€™s stock appreciating and/or ecommerce/adtech stocks declining going forward.
Pinterestâ€™s user growth will continue once numbers stabilize post-pandemic, although likely at a fairly modest rate, and Pinterest will continue to rapidly increase revenue per user. With continued robust growth and the potential for high free cash flow margins, Pinterest will look extremely undervalued at current prices in coming years. This situation has come about from a combination of overblown fears of user losses, a pullback in adtech stocks due to Appleâ€™s privacy initiatives and a shift into stocks with short duration due to inflation concerns. Picking a bottom in this type of situation is difficult but Pinterestâ€™s risk-reward ratio is now highly skewed towards the upside.
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/448028 ... -overblown
Feb. 07, 2022
An investor concern for the past year has been the companyâ€™s declining MAUâ€™s however it looks like MAUâ€™s have bottomed removing it as an investor concern going forward.
Pinterest reported 436.8m MAUâ€™s on February 1st and is in the very early stages of monetizing this customer base which leaves room for continued long-term sustainable growth.
At a 6.9x LTM sales multiple, the market seems to ignore the obvious tailwinds for growth going forward.
Pinterest Takes Stock Public On New York Stock Exchange
Spencer Platt/Getty Images News
A market mispricing
As investors have been abandoning growth companies in the recent selloff, some companies have been left for the intelligent investor to pick up and Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) looks to be one of them.
The stock is now trading at around $27, down 70% from its highs. The drop has been partly due to the broader tech selloff and partly due to investors short term interpretation of quarterly results. MAUâ€™s seems to have reached a bottom with management saying that the company saw 436.8m MAUs on February 1 compared to 431m in the fourth quarter of 2021.
After four consecutive quarters of declining MAUs, this removes an investor concern and should result in a more positive sentiment towards the stock going forward.
A growth story that will continue
Pinterest has compounded revenue growth at a 50.5% rate for the past 3 years with FY21 revenue up 52% YoY - Q4 earnings release. User growth has certainly helped, growing 13.4% on average over the past 2 years, but ARPU growth has been the primary contributor to the impressive growth rates seen in the past. In line with Pinterestâ€™s historical results, ARPU growth will be the primary driver of future growth. At just 6.9x LTM sales the market seems to underestimate the monetization opportunity within Pinterestâ€™s existing user base. This is an opportunity to buy an already established company with a large user base in the very early innings of monetization which should result in a long-term growth story as I will demonstrate in the article.
Global ARPU was up 23% YoY in their recent Q4 earnings report. The average US user contributed $7.43 in revenue for the fourth quarter up 25% YoY with their international ARPU growing 62% YoY to just $0.57.
There will always be a difference in international ARPU vs US ARPU however the current 1:13 difference seen in Q4 should continue to trend down. As Pinterest continues to mature as a business in coming years, we should expect continued strong growth in their international ARPUs, making the current 1:13 ratio shrink and fall more in line with peers.
The opportunity in detail
To get an idea of the global ARPU opportunity ahead, one could compare Pinterestâ€™s ARPU with similar platforms such as Metaâ€™s (NASDAQ:FB) family of apps, Snapchat (NYSE:SNAP), or Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). The only problem being that these arenâ€™t exactly similar apps, and this is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Unlike the apps mentioned, Pinterest is not a platform/app used on a day-to-day basis by all its users. ARPU will certainly always be higher when users spend time on the respective app every day. Pinterest simply isnâ€™t that kind of app/platform. This is also why MAUs are used as a key user metric and why Pinterest doesnâ€™t disclose DAUs on a quarterly basis â€“ it wouldnâ€™t make sense.
I will argue though that since Pinterest users are using the app to find inspiration for potential purchases, the company is closer positioned to the purchase than e.g., Snapchat and hence ads should be more costly, compensating for the lack of day-to-day engagement on the ARPU front. Nevertheless, it is of little value simply comparing Pinterestâ€™s ARPU to the names mentioned.
I have instead compared them to other platforms/apps on a US versus International ARPU basis. I find it valuable to get a sense of where more mature companies are in terms of the value derived from an international user versus a US user. I am using Meta for my comparisons since this is the most mature social media company.
These are probably more to the 1:12 side, but the +15 countries mentioned after Brazil and Mexico were European countries (and Canada) with these countries leaning more to the 1:4 ratio. Considering it together, my best guess would be an expected 1:7 ratio for Pinterestâ€™s international users against the current 1:13 ratio representing a large monetization opportunity for Pinterestâ€™s international users. Adding growing total MAUâ€™s on top as well as growing ARPU for the US segment and it suddenly becomes very interesting.
Note that the US ARPU to international ARPU ratio has declined from 1:36 in Q4 of 2019 to the recent 1:13 seen in Q4 of 2021.
A pro forma valuation estimate is presented below:
Pinterest reported a 23% MAU CAGR during the pre-covid period (Q417-Q42019). They then reported a 13.4% CAGR for the Q419-Q421 period. MAU growth has been and will be derived primarily from their international user segment with US MAUâ€™s growing 29% in the Q42017-Q42020 period and international MAUâ€™s growing 159% in the same period.
I use a 5% annual growth rate estimate for international MAUs and a 3% growth rate for US MAUs. This would result in 94m and 401m US and international users in FY24 up from the Q421 user count of 86m and 346m.
I use a 15% growth rate for US ARPU, which is just above the estimated 12.3% CAGR for the global digital advertising market.
International ARPU is set to continue rapid growth and should as a result shrink the current 1:13 gap and move it closer to a 1:7 international ARPU to US ARPU ratio. I use a 35% growth rate for international ARPU which seems reasonable given the 115%, 62% and 80% growth in international ARPU during 2019, 2020 and 2021. This would shrink the ratio from 1:13 today to 1:9 in FY24.
These conservative estimates result in pro forma FY24 revenue of $4.7B which represent a 3-year revenue CAGR of 22%. For context, SA analysts expect somewhere around a 20-25% growth rate for 2022 and 2023 declining to around 10% in 2024 which results in expected 2024 revenue of around $4.4B. I believe this is too conservative and I find it unlikely that revenue growth decelerates to 10% for many years to come using the information and data available today. To add additional color, senior equity analyst Ali Mogharabi from Morningstar expects a 17% average compounded annual growth rate for revenue over the next 10 years (updated on February 4th, 2022).
I believe a reasonable long term operating margin expectation for Pinterest is somewhere in the 30-35% range. The current 6.9x LTM sales therefore implies a P/OI of 20.7 using my long-term operating margin estimate. I think this multiple is too low given Pinterestâ€™s prospects and possibilities. If we apply a 7x sales multiple on FY24 sales, we get a market cap of $32.9B in three years. I view 7x sales to be a fair multiple if the company meets my +20% growth estimates. I do not factor in any shareholder dilution from the current 690m diluted shares outstanding since this number has been steady during all of 2021 and Pinterest is now profitable. A 2024 market cap for Pinterest of $32.9B represents an IRR of 21% (expecting the currently 40m non-vested shares to vest during the next 3-year period). Using a 15% discount rate I find the company to be 13% undervalued using the current â€śdilutedâ€ť market cap of $18.8B or $27.25 per share.
To sum up the valuation. User growth has been set to grow a modest 5% and 3% for the international and US segment. US ARPU is set to grow with the overall online ads industry while benefiting from continued user data collection which will improve targeting and overall improvements to advertiser tools on Pinterest. International ARPU is set to grow faster than US ARPU which is in line with history as the international ARPU to US ARPU ratio continues to shrink to be more in line with peers which I view as a logical development going forward.
Why does this opportunity exist? â€“ risks
The market selloff which has most noted within the fast-growing tech companies has created this opportunity. On a more fundamental note, there are a few things that investors should consider:
The competition for usersâ€™ daily smartphone time continues to toughen. Companies continue to develop engaging features within their respective apps and new companies continue to come up with new solutions and ideas to capture user time. This results in an obvious but also very real risk which is Pinterest potentially losing user time to other apps/platforms/websites.
Investors must ask themselves a very basic question before buying PINS stock. Is their product good enough to retain or grow the user base and time spent going forward?
It looks to me like the market selloff has created a compelling opportunity to buy Pinterest stock. There are certainly risks involved in owning the company however a 21% IRR on conservative estimates leaves room for negative surprises. The stock looks de-risked at $27 per share and this might be a good opportunity to buy. On that note, I assign PINS stock a buy rating.
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/448500 ... o-continue
Feb. 11, 2022 11:03 AM ETPinterest, Inc. (PINS)PYPL, MSFT, ATVIBy: Joshua Fineman, SA News Editor
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) rose 6.1% after a report earlier speculated that the company could see takeover interest with its shares down about 55% in the past 6 months.
Pinterest could become the target for a potential takeover again after its shares fell 21% in the past month, Dealreporter speculated earlier in its "morning flash" piece, without citing any sources.
The report highlighted PayPal's (NASDAQ:PYPL) interest last year in a potential deal with Pinterest, though PayPal in late October said it wouldn't pursue an acquisition of the art-sharing social media network. The report also mentioned Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported interest in a Pinterest deal from early last year, though it seems unlikely at this point given MSFT's pending $68B planned acquisition of Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI).
Last week, Pinterest Q4 earnings top estimates, but concerns remain.
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3799236-p ... stock-drop
Mar. 15, 2022
Pinterest (PINS +0.8%) is now moving into exporting its content further and wider, allowing users to hit other social channels with their ideas.
Starting Tuesday, its users can download and share published Idea Pins on channels including Facebook and Instagram, pursuing audiences off Pinterest's own platform.
Idea Pins will be downloaded as a watermarked video stitching them all together, ending with an end card displaying the creator's name and username, the company says.
It's moved to simplify the process: Users selecting an icon will start a download of a video, and take the user to the Facebook or Instagram app with a created story open and the video pasted in, ready for editing and/or posting.
Other platforms can see sharing as well, Pinterest says: Its download options provides for quickly saving and uploading watermarked Idea Pin content on platforms like Snapchat and TikTok.
Last week Pinterest's annual advertiser summit brought a number of new shopping features, including Checkout.
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3813690-p ... -platforms
Ik hoop nog altijd op een overname of samensmelting
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Al vijf beursdagen stijgende
A go-to for idea generation, Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Wednesday, April 27th, after market close.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.04 (-63.6% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $572.45M (+18.0% Y/Y).
During Q4 2021, revenue grew 20% Y/Y, beating consensus by $19.43M. Monthly active users or MAUs slipped to 431M; average revenue per user climbed and beat expectations: $1.93 per user vs. expectations for $1.84. Dig deeper in company presentation
Cash and equivalents grew to $1.42B at year-end, vs. $669.2M previous year. Last quarter, company acquired video creation and editing app, Vochi.
Morgan Stanley downgraded on 'too much uncertainty, Analyst Brian Nowak lowered his rating to equal weight from overweight and slashed his price target to $30 from $53.
Open source ecommerce platform, WooCommerce and Pinterest announce strategic partnership.
Previous month, company eased out video sharing to other social platforms.
Optimistic commentary on the stock with a Buy rating by contributor who states: 'stock isn't investable at a full position right now, but we remain fundamentally optimistic'
Hold rating and commentary that states, 'We think Pinterest has continued to lose its competitive edge.'
Over the last 2 years, PINS has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 11 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 6 upward revisions and 8 downward.
More from recent news, company execs got to face some of the bearish questions facing the company in recent months. Co-founder and CEO Ben Silbermann said the company was "clear-eyed about these recent headwinds."
Day before, social media stocks jumped higher as Elon Musk bought Twitter.
Over the last one year, stock has declined 75%, taking a look at ratings against peers.
comments: 1. Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS - Get Rating) CEO Benjamin Silbermann sold 59,154 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Thursday, April 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $20.58, for a total value of $1,217,389.32
Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS - Get Rating) Director Evan Sharp sold 59,142 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, April 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $20.58, for a total value of $1,217,142.36.
2. Silbermann sells a portion every quarter (as do many CEO's). His sale dates are Jan, April, July and Oct, always on the 21st. So, nothing to see here
bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3826883-p ... n-store-q1
PINTEREST INC US72352L1061 / Nyse
Cotation temps rĂ©el NYSE - 26/04/22 - 23H 05mn 00s
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