Luckin Coffee - LK

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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

Bericht door Stefkamielkafkajr »

Stefkamielkafkajr schreef:
07 okt 2020 22:30
hopla het gaat hier goed vooruit +22%
reeds even over de 6$ gegaan :up:
het gaat hier weer een top weekje worden samen met sorrento therapeutics
hmmm nabeurs nog flink gezakt spannend afwachten wat het straks gaat doen bij opening :clap:
Altice europe,aegon,, euronav, acacia pharma,fagron,,, greenyard ,pharming, , econocom.Xfab.oxurion.sorrento therapeutics.luckin coffe adr







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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

Bericht door Munnybunny »

Stefkamielkafkajr schreef:
08 okt 2020 13:42
Stefkamielkafkajr schreef:
07 okt 2020 22:30
hopla het gaat hier goed vooruit +22%
reeds even over de 6$ gegaan :up:
het gaat hier weer een top weekje worden samen met sorrento therapeutics
hmmm nabeurs nog flink gezakt spannend afwachten wat het straks gaat doen bij opening :clap:
$6+

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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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Boert hier flink achteruit de laatste 2 dagen
Altice europe,aegon,, euronav, acacia pharma,fagron,,, greenyard ,pharming, , econocom.Xfab.oxurion.sorrento therapeutics.luckin coffe adr

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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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The Revival in Luckin Coffee Could Score You 1,000% Gains
Once dead, Luckin Coffee is storming back to life

By Luke Lango, InvestorPlace Markets Analyst Oct 12, 2020, 12:52 pm EDT

In InvestorPlace’s financial newsletter The Daily 10X Stock Report, which is aimed at delivering to your inbox, every single day, a stock pick that could rise by at least 10x, I alerted subscribers on July 27 that disgraced and beaten-up Luckin Coffee (OTCMKTS:LKNCY), despite all odds, looked like a strong buy with huge upside potential. Since then, Luckin stock surged more than 125% higher.

Needless to say, our subscribers are happy about that one, just as they’re happy that we told them about names like Nio (NYSE:NIO), Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG), Kandi (NASDAQ:KNDI) and Digital Turbine (NASDAQ:APPS) back when those were still penny stocks (to read more about the newsletter, click here).

But guess what? This big revival rally in LKNCY stock is far from over.

And today, I’m going to tell you what I told our subscribers back in July: Luckin Coffee, presently valued at less than $1.5 billion, is in the midst of a resurgence that could see this company be worth nearly $20 billion one day.


Of course, the execution risks here are large. They should not be discounted. This stock is not for your lunch money. It’s also run up quite a bit in a short amount of time, and is in technically overbought territory, so there’s no need to rush into Luckin stock today.

But the turnaround thesis here is compelling enough, with enough long-term upside potential, that LKNCY is an attractive, long-term investment opportunity for aggressive, risk-seeking investors.

Without further ado, then, let’s jump in to talking about that turnaround thesis.

A Legitimate, Thriving Business

We all know Luckin Coffee as that Chinese coffee chain which was supposed to be the Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) of China, but got derailed by an enormous fraud in which company executives dramatically overstated revenues and simply fabricated orders.

Ever since that ordeal came to light, Luckin Coffee went from Wall Street darling to penny stock.

But, unlike various Chinese stock frauds before it, Luckin stock is not a pump-and-dump scheme with no substance.

The company still operates 6,500 coffee houses in China, is still the country’s largest retail coffee company and still employs a genius, innovative, small footprint, mobile-ordering-focused business model that is perfectly suited to serve cheap coffee in a quick manner to urban consumers who love their smartphones.

The company’s app is still one of the top 10 most downloaded food and drink apps in China.

Luckin Coffee still grew revenues by 250%+ in 2019, still has more than $1 billion in cash on the balance sheet to weather near-term volatility, and still has an opportunity to grow to 10,000… 20,000… 30,000 or more stores in the long run.

This is a legitimate business with legitimate growth drivers. And legitimate long-term growth prospects.

Insiders just committed fraud for nine months in 2019. Those insiders are now gone, and the company appears ready to honestly grow the business from a clean slate.

Putting the Fraud in the Rearview Mirror

All the bad stuff that Luckin Coffee had coming its way because of its fraud scandal, has for the most part already happened.

The C-suite has been reshuffled. Bad actors have been removed. The internal investigation into the fraud has wrapped up. Luckin’s Nasdaq de-listing has already happened. The numbers have already been restated. Some fines have already been levied (and to date, they’ve been nothing more than slaps on the wrist).

Meanwhile, it appears like Luckin Coffee is getting back to business as usual.

A quick glance through Weibo (NASDAQ:WB), which is basically the Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) of China, shows that tons of users are regularly posting about Luckin Coffee drinks, with the ostensible implication being that Chinese consumers are still buying lots of Luckin coffee.

Looking ahead, the company is set to report earnings sometime in November, and that will give management an opportunity to provide closure to the fraud scandal, restore investor confidence and enthusiasm and paint an optimistic picture of how the company moves forward from here.

All in all, then, it increasingly appears that Luckin Coffee is putting its enormous 2019 fraud scandal in the rearview mirror and is ready to finally move forward on executing against its enormous growth opportunity in China’s booming coffee market.

China’s Booming Coffee Market

Central to the bull thesis on Luckin stock is that Luckin Coffee finds itself at the epicenter of the booming Chinese retail coffee market.

The idea is simple. Young consumers in China are becoming more and more like their U.S. and European counterparts every day. Recently, this includes an uptick in coffee consumption in China. As young consumers increasingly become the driving force of China’s consumer economy, China’s retail coffee market will go from nascent to enormous by the end of the decade.

In numbers, the idea is also very simple.

There are about 35,000 coffee houses in the U.S. to service roughly 330 million consumers, equating to about 100 coffee houses per million people. While that may seem like a lot, it’s not. Throughout North America and Europe, the U.S. is one of the smallest coffee drinking nations, and therefore, has a relatively low number of coffee houses per capita.

For example, Canada is one of the world’s largest coffee drinking nations. There are over 8,000 coffee shops for about 40 million people, implying 200 coffee houses per million people.

Of course, because of heavy and embedded tea culture, China per capita coffee consumption will forever lag U.S. and Canada per capita coffee consumption. But an increasingly westernized young consumer class will continue to drive rapid growth in China’s retail coffee market, and by the end of the decade, China could very reasonably feature around 50 coffee houses per million people.

At a population of 1.4 billion people, that implies roughly 70,000 coffee houses in China by 2030.

According to Euromonitor, there are less than 20,000 coffee houses in China today.

Thus, this is market which could nearly 4x in size over the next decade, with Luckin Coffee leading this hyperbolic growth.

Huge Upside for Luckin Stock

With more than 6,500 locations, Luckin is the biggest coffee chain in China in terms of retail locations, and it’s not even close.

Given Luckin’s unique and hyper-scalable business model, Luckin should be able to sustain leadership position in terms of retail locations for the foreseeable future. At present, the company controls about 35% coffee retail unit market share in China. Assuming that share positioning remains at 35%, then in a China retail coffee market that may feature 70,000 shops by 2030, Luckin could be operating around 25,000 coffee shops in China alone.

Throw in some expansion into Southeast Asia and maybe Japan, and I think Luckin could easily operate 30,000 coffee shops by 2030.

Starbucks does about $1.3 million in revenue per U.S. store, which roughly equates to about $775 in sales per square foot. That’s only growing, because of rising coffee demand, population growth and inflation. It’ll hit $1,000 by the end of the decade. Let’s say Luckin does about half of that, or about $500 in sales per square foot. Stores average around 400 square feet, implying average annual unit volumes of $200,000.

On 30,000 stores, that implies revenues of $6 billion.

Starbucks operates around 15% operating margins. Luckin should be able to achieve similar margins at scale, as lower list prices on the coffee are offset by lower labor and rent expenses from operating smaller stores.

Tack a 15% operating margin on $6 billion revenues. Take out 20% for taxes. You’re left with $720 million in net profits. Throw a 26x multiple on that, which is the average forward earnings multiple for SBUX stock — and you get to a potential future market cap for Luckin of nearly $20 billion.

At the Luckin stock price today, the company is valued at less than $1.5 billion.

So, to that end, Luckin has more than 1,000% upside potential from current levels.


The Bottom Line

Wall Street wrote off Luckin Coffee as just another pump-and-dump Chinese stock fraud.

It’s not.

Some investors are starting to warm up to the idea that Luckin Coffee has a realistic opportunity to put its enormous 2019 fraud scandal in the rearview mirror, and very soon, get back to executing on its huge opportunity in China’s booming coffee market.

That’s why LKNCY stock has surged over the past few months.

If management does successfully execute against this enormous opportunity – granted, a huge “if” – then the recent surge in Luckin stock is just the beginning of a much bigger and longer uptrend in which the stock could rise more than 10X.

Of course, this is a very risky investment. It’s not for everyone. But for those with an appetite for risk and looking for big returns, Luckin is worth putting on your radar.
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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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https://m.sohu.com/a/424868770_10026900 ... 00115_3w_a

What supported Luckin's rapid recovery after the storm?


The first 10 months of 2020 will be an extraordinary period for Ruixing Coffee. Many people did not expect that after crossing the triple door of the epidemic, capital pressure and regulatory penalties, Ruixing's current business pace seems to become more and more stable.



Ruixing Coffee after the storm is still popular with consumers

In August of this year, it was reported that nearly half of Luckin Coffee's stores had achieved breakeven, and the company's daily cash income was stable at around 13 million yuan.

Luckin not only did not fall in the crisis, but also accelerated the speed of product innovation. According to incomplete statistics, as of September this year, Ruixing Coffee has launched 89 new products, giving consumers a sense of freshness, and market feedback is also very good. For example, the thick milk latte series that the Luckin team spent more than 100 days to prepare became a hot drink on the Internet as soon as it was launched on the market and was highly sought after by consumers.

Not only that, Luckin Coffee has also updated its refined marketing strategy to narrow the distance between the brand and customers by deploying private domain traffic. Customers can join a WeChat group in nearby stores. There are "welfare officers" in the group to serve everyone. From issuing coupons to organizing various activities, they are like close assistants in everyone's daily life, thereby increasing the frequency of customers' consumption.

According to data, as of July this year, Luckin has more than 60 million active users, nearly 10,000 WeChat groups, and its private domain users can contribute 35,000 direct orders every day. By the end of August, Ruixing’s private domain users had reached 3 million.

In addition, at the beginning of September this year, when colleges and universities across the country entered the school season, Ruixing also actively expanded the campus market and presented three major gifts to college students, the school opening package, the college store community, and the value-added order. And this is undoubtedly the extension of Luckin's refined marketing strategy in vertical market segments.

Since the “unlimited scene” strategy was proposed in 2018, Luckin Coffee has expanded customer consumption locations from coffee shops to offices, university campuses, transportation hubs, hospitals, tourism and other scenes, and satisfies users through different types of theme stores Diversified scene requirements.



Behind the rapid recovery, look at the changes and changes of Ruixing

In the past few months, Luckin Coffee has not only survived the storm, but also achieved a rapid recovery in the post-epidemic period. What is behind this?

The first is the constant of Luckin: its business foundation is still solid.

At present, Ruixing still has 4000 offline stores, 30,000 employees, and more than 60 million active users. This is Ruixing's basic disk.

China Food Industry Analyst Zhu Danpeng believes: "The real sales of Luckin Coffee in 2019 were more than 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of more than 200%, indicating that it has been recognized by consumer users."

The second is where Luckin's advantage lies: the level of digitalization is unique in the industry.

Gao Hongqing, the managing partner of Lianchuang Capital, analyzed: “Luckin Coffee has reconstructed the supply chain with digital logic and changed all aspects of retail, including the logic of location selection, the logic of operation, etc., and has explored a digitalization for the entire new retail industry. Retail specimens."

The most intuitive example is that there is no dedicated cashier in the Luckin Coffee store. This link can be solved through the online APP. At the same time, it can reduce the queue problem in the store and bring more convenience to consumers.

The third is Luckin's great changes: After the crisis, the company used time to gain more room for development through rapid adjustments.

Since July this year, with Guo Jinyi officially serving as the chairman and CEO of Ruixing Coffee Company, Cao Wenbao is responsible for the overall operation of the store and is solely responsible for store location selection and expansion. CMO Yang Fei is also responsible for business growth and took over some of the responsibilities of the original COO. Wu Gang is responsible for supply chain and external strategic cooperation. It can be said that the adjustment of Ruixing's management has been in place. At the same time, from the strategic level, Ruixing has slowed down the pace of store expansion and turned to refined operations.

Such changes ensure the stability of Luckin's core decision-making mechanism and allow the company to develop towards a more stable business model.

From popularity to heart, everyone's confidence in Ruixing is back

If it is said that when the Ruixing crisis broke out, users had to redeem coupons and caused a burst of orders, and they had a negative psychology. Now, when people feel that the service and quality remain the same when they consume at Ruixing, they will naturally treat Ruixing More and more confident in the development of.



Of course, Luckin itself has also made many measures to raise "qi":

Internally, in order to stabilize the military spirit, Ruixing paid April's salary in advance, which also allowed the outside world to see the real operating conditions of Ruixing. Perhaps Luckin is the new retail brand that has recovered the fastest since the epidemic and does not reduce employees' wages.

Externally, after the crisis broke out, Luckin wrote guarantees for suppliers to reduce their risks, and to pay for goods on time, so that partners were completely at ease.

At the consumer level, Luckin's original intention of "being a good coffee that everyone can afford and drink" has never changed.

Luckin Coffee's nearly 5,000 stores, 60 million users, and 30,000 employees are its strengths, and its rapid resilience, super execution and abundant cash flow have created conditions for its turnaround against the wind. More importantly, Luckin's positive attitude towards everything makes people full of confidence in the future of this company.
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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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The Turnaround Thesis Is Surprisingly Strong with Luckin Coffee
The re-appointment of a star-quality board director bodes well for Luckin stock


Luckin Coffee (OTCMKTS:LKNCY), once hailed as the Chinese coffee chain equivalent of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), has provided plenty of drama and intrigue. Long-term investors in Luckin stock, meanwhile, have had their patience and internal fortitude tested on more than one occasion.

As I’ve reported previously, Luckin stock was booted off of the Nasdaq stock exchange and currently trades on the over-the-counter markets. This unfortunate incident, however, wasn’t even the most scandalous development associated with Luckin.

In what might be compared to soap opera, Luckin was embroiled in alleged accounting fraud and a number of high-ranking officials at the company either quit or were dismissed.

Eventually, Chinese regulators decided to fine Luckin and a number of connected firms a total of 61 million yuan, which at the time equated to roughly $8.98 million. So, with all of that in the rear-view mirror, is there any reason to own Luckin stock now?

A Closer Look at Luckin Stock

Interestingly, on Oct. 16, Luckin stock closed at $5.01. That’s interesting because technically, this means that the stock wasn’t classified as a penny stock anymore.

You see, a penny stock is defined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange commission as a stock trading for less than $5. It’s typically a good sign if a stock can get above penny-stock status. Therefore, traders tend to watch that $5 level closely.

Moreover, Luckin stock bulls have attempted to push the share price above $5 multiple times since April of 2020. Generally speaking, they haven’t succeeded in these attempts.

It will be interesting to see if the Luckin stock buyers can defend this crucial level throughout the fourth quarter of 2020. Hopefully, $5 will become a support level rather than a ceiling of resistance.

A ‘Shao Me’ Story

Because the company doesn’t have a reputation for full transparency, words won’t be enough to convince the markets of Luckin’s legitimacy. Thus, dogged by scandal, Luckin has become a show-me story for legions of skeptics.

A step in the right direction is the re-appointment of Sean Shao as an independent director to Luckin’s board. This re-appointment was pursuant to a Sept. 2 shareholder meeting.

How consequential is Shao to Luckin’s future? According to InvestorPlace contributor Will Ashworth, Luckin’s future rests in this man’s hands.

That’s quite a grand claim, to say the least. Could there be merit to Ashworth’s contention? Let’s take a closer look and see if Shao is truly the right man for the job.

If the Shao Fits

In addition to being an independent director at Luckin from May 2019 to July 5 of this year, Shao has amassed a track record that ought to impress any skeptic. Here’s a shortened curriculum vitae for your perusal:

Bachelor’s degree in art from East China Normal University
Master’s degree in public health care administration from UCLA
Member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants
Worked at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CPA Ltd. for roughly 10 years
Served as the CFO of ChinaEdu

Held board and/or other executive-level positions at 21Vianet Group (NASDAQ:VNET), Jumei International Holding Ltd., Lightinthebox Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LITB) and China Biologic Products Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CBPO).
Led the independent investigation into Luckin’s accounting irregularities

That’s an impressive track record. Moreover, Shao’s re-appointment was requested by Centurium Capital. In August, that company was reported to possess 11.7% of the voting power at Luckin.

Evidently, Centurium believes in Shao’s ability to turn Luckin around and help restore its standing in the marketplace. And judging by Shao’s resume, I’d say he’s a great fit for that role.

The Bottom Line

In the wake of an accounting scandal, only time will tell whether Luckin can wipe the bitter taste from investors’ mouths. However, with Shao back on board (literally), at least there’s hope on the horizon for patient Luckin stock holders.
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Because the company doesn’t have a reputation for full transparency, words won’t be enough to convince the markets of Luckin’s legitimacy. Thus, dogged by scandal, Luckin has become a show-me story for legions of skeptics.


Zal niet zo heel lang meer duren, denk ik wanneer ze de audit publiceren.

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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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Munnybunny schreef:
21 okt 2020 14:09
Because the company doesn’t have a reputation for full transparency, words won’t be enough to convince the markets of Luckin’s legitimacy. Thus, dogged by scandal, Luckin has become a show-me story for legions of skeptics.


Zal niet zo heel lang meer duren, denk ik wanneer ze de audit publiceren.
Normaal half november
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Re: Luckin Coffee - LK

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It’s Time for Luckin Stock to Put Up or Shut Up
LKNCY stock has jumped higher recently without any evidence of a healthy business

By Will Ashworth, InvestorPlace Contributor Oct 27, 2020, 8:19 am EDT

Luckin Coffee (OTCMKTS:LKNCY) is in the middle of a renaissance, of sorts. Over the past three months, Luckin stock has gained 80% through Oct. 23. Things are looking so good for the disgraced Chinese coffee company that InvestorPlace contributor Luke Lango recently suggested its revival could net you 1,000% gains.


There’s only one problem: Luckin hasn’t reported its results since November 2019.

A New Accountant

My colleague points out that it’s supposed to report earnings in November. Still, since it only appointed a new accounting firm — Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk LLP (MarcumBP) — in mid-September, the lack of any information on the company’s investor relations page suggests it’s going to take a while for investors to be brought up to speed on the company’s actual sales.

Yet, Luckin stock has gained 80% over the past three months and is trading near $5 for the first time since the spring. Of course, that was before the sales fabrication issue knocked its stock for an 80% haircut after the company’s confirmation of the sales discrepancies in early April.

That’s an ironic symmetry of numbers.

The last time I wrote about Luckin was on Sep. 21. I argued that former and now current director, Sean Shao, was a possible answer to the company’s troubles. Most certainly, Centurium Capital, one of Luckin’s largest shareholders, feels this way. It was the one who pushed for Shao’s reappointment.

However, I also highlighted InvestorPlace contributor Mark Hake’s 51-cent estimate for Luckin stock. I don’t believe he’s written about it since August. I’d be curious to see how he values the company’s stock two months later.

But I digress.

The True Value of Luckin Stock Has Yet to Be Revealed

As far as I can tell, investors have pushed Luckin’s share price higher for three reasons. They’re listed chronologically from oldest to newest.

Sean Shao’s re-appointment to the board. Shao was officially put back on the board after the company’s Sep. 2 vote by shareholders.

Appointment of new independent auditor and accountant. As I said earlier, MarcumBP was appointed to replace Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP. The appointment was made official Sep. 18. As the announcement stated, the company is working with its new accountant to get out its annual Form 20-F, which requires “foreign private issuers” to file an annual report within six months of the end of a fiscal year.

Luckin fined for indiscretions. Lastly, the company was fined the equivalent of $9 million Sep. 23 by the Chinese State Administration for Market Regulation. My colleague, Luke Lango, who thinks you could make a 1,000% return on Luckin, had something to say about the current state of affairs.

Under normal circumstances, that should have happened by June 30. As I write this, Luckin is four months past due. It most definitely is time to put up or shut up with regards to sales and earnings.

“The C-suite has been reshuffled. Bad actors have been removed. The internal investigation into the fraud has wrapped up. Luckin’s Nasdaq de-listing has already happened. The numbers have already been restated. Some fines have already been levied (and to date, they’ve been nothing more than slaps on the wrist),” Lango wrote Oct. 12.

He suggests that lots of Chinese are still buying coffee at Luckin locations, as evidenced by social media commentary. So, all is good.

But is it really? Luckin fabricated nearly $300 million in sales, and it was fined just $9 million or 3% of the revenue in question.

Investors Have No Way to Know If Things Are Better

Isn’t anyone worried that if the Chinese government is willing to turn a blind eye to this kind of transgression, there’s a real possibility that other shady activities could happen in the future with little or no consequence?

Let’s face it.

When you invest in China, you continue to take a risk knowing that the regulatory oversight isn’t nearly as robust as here in the U.S. Portfolio manager Michael Dzialo, who’s run Managed Asset Portfolios LLC since 2000, believes the earnings manipulation in China is significant.

“MAP has long avoided investing in Chinese companies – for good reasons. China’s corporate governance is weak, and the legal system does not do nearly enough to weed out frauds and regulate businesses. Even Chinese firms listed on U.S. exchanges aren’t subject to the same accounting oversight as publicly traded U.S. based companies,” Dzialo wrote in May.

“Short-sellers, who make their money when the price of a company goes down, have found an abundance of U.S. and foreign listed Chinese companies to bet against. While there will always be diamonds in the rough, there are also landmines. We strive to avoid those landmines.”

One of the landmines listed by the portfolio manager is Luckin Coffee. And for a good reason. It committed fraud within a year of its U.S. IPO listing.

Up 80% in one month and trading near $5, you have to be insane to buy its stock before the 20-F is out and the company’s done a reasonable job assuring investors that the worst is behind it.

Until then, you’re taking a huge risk on your capital, with absolutely no financial evidence the business remains healthy.


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