Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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https://dbtnews.com/2020/10/27/market-a ... me-to-buy/

Market Analysts see Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK] gaining to $2.50. Time to buy?

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [AMEX: NAK] traded at a low on 10/26/20, posting a -1.94 loss after which it closed the day’ session at $1.01. The company report on October 7, 2020 that Northern Dynasty Welcomes US Government Action to Address Critical Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX:NDM)(NYSE American:NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) acknowledged today the first tangible step the US government has taken to address the threat to America’s economy and military security posed by a severe over-reliance on foreign adversaries for the supply of critical mineral and metals.

On October 5, 2020, the United States government announced it would direct the $60 billion US International Development Finance Corporation, a federally-funded lender and investor created under President Trump, to invest $25 million in a UK-based mining group that specializes in producing rare earth metals. The investment in TechMet Ltd. will go toward developing a mine in Brazil that produces nickel and cobalt, both essential for the manufacture of electric vehicles, mobile phones and batteries.

The results of the trading session contributed to over 5695392 shares changing hands. Over the past one week, the price volatility of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. stands at 4.30% while the volatility over the past one month is 6.55%.

The market cap for NAK stock reached $499.02 million, with 506.59 million shares outstanding and 494.96 million shares in the current float. Compared to the average trading volume of 16.85M shares, NAK reached a trading volume of 5695392 in the most recent trading day, which is why market watchdogs consider the stock to be active.

What do top market gurus say about Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK]?
H.C. Wainwright have made an estimate for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. shares, keeping their opinion on the stock as Buy, with their previous recommendation back on October 19, 2017. While these analysts kept the previous recommendation, Gabelli & Co raised their target price to Buy. The new note on the price target was released on December 21, 2016, representing the official price target for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. stock.

The Average True Range (ATR) for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. is set at 0.07 The Price to Book ratio for the last quarter was 4.04.

How has NAK stock performed recently?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK] fell into the red zone at the end of the last week, falling into a negative trend and dropping by 0.00. With this latest performance, NAK shares dropped by 0.00% in over the last four-week period, additionally plugging by 67.16% over the last 6 months – not to mention a rise of 76.23% in the past year of trading.

Overbought and oversold stocks can be easily traced with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where an RSI result of over 70 would be overbought, and any rate below 30 would indicate oversold conditions. An RSI rate of 50 would represent a neutral market momentum. The current RSI for NAK stock in for the last two-week period is set at 44.86, with the RSI for the last a single of trading hit 38.16, and the three-weeks RSI is set at 44.20 for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK]. The present Moving Average for the last 50 days of trading for this stock 1.0909, while it was recorded at 1.0160 for the last single week of trading, and 0.9600 for the last 200 days.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK]: Deeper insight into the fundamentals
Return on Total Capital for NAK is now -47.38, given the latest momentum, and Return on Invested Capital for the company is -48.11. Return on Equity for this stock declined to -48.27, with Return on Assets sitting at -43.72. When it comes to the capital structure of this company, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK] has a Total Debt to Total Equity ratio set at 2.55. Additionally, NAK Total Debt to Total Capital is recorded at 2.49, with Total Debt to Total Assets ending up at 2.29. Long-Term Debt to Equity for the company is recorded at 0.67, with the Long-Term Debt to Total Capital now at 0.66.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.’s liquidity data is similarly interesting compelling, with a Quick Ratio of 1.10 and a Current Ratio set at 1.10.

Insider trade positions for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK]
There are presently around $57 million, or 17.90% of NAK stock, in the hands of institutional investors. The top three institutional holders of NAK stocks are: KOPERNIK GLOBAL ALL-CAP FUND, LP with ownership of 18,314,510, which is approximately New of the company’s market cap and around 37.40% of the total institutional ownership; KOPERNIK GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC, holding 14,605,876 shares of the stock with an approximate value of $14.75 million in NAK stocks shares; and RUSSELL INVESTMENTS GROUP, LTD., currently with $7.67 million in NAK stock with ownership of nearly -12.275% of the company’s market capitalization.

Positions in Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. stocks held by institutional investors increased at the end of August and at the time of the August reporting period, where 48 institutional holders increased their position in Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [AMEX:NAK] by around 22,147,821 shares. Additionally, 33 investors decreased positions by around 6,067,791 shares, while 18 investors held positions by with 28,562,963 shares. The mentioned changes placed institutional holdings at 56,778,575 shares, according to the latest SEC report filing. NAK stock had 30 new institutional investments in for a total of 19,940,789 shares, while 13 institutional investors sold positions of 194,481 shares during the same period.







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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

Bericht door Droopymaes »

Op Yahoo Finance maakt 1 van de 'kenners' gewag van de "Certificate of Reasonable Assurance" (van de staat van Alaska).
https://dec.alaska.gov/Applications/Wat ... =20411&v=1

Volgens haar zou er nadien nog de "CMP" van NAK moeten volgen om nadien de ROD te kunnen krijgen van de ACOE.

Er vanuit gaande van 90d na FEIS, zouden we 18 nov uiterlijk de ROD moeten kunnen krijgen...

Fingers Cossed.
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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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** Eindelijk nog eens een bericht van NDM/NAK **

Northern Dynasty Issues Technical Report: Southwest Alaska’s Pebble Project Hosts the World’s Most Significant Rhenium Resource

October 2, 2020·10 mins read
VANCOUVER / ACCESSWIRE / October 2, 2020 / Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX:NDM)(NYSE American:NAK) ("Northern Dynasty" or the "Company") has issued a Technical Report on Alaska's Pebble Project, including a revised mineral resource estimate announced in August (see Northern Dynasty August 20, 2020 news release) that establishes Pebble as the single most significant source of Rhenium in the world.

The ‘2020 Technical Report on the Pebble Project, Southwest Alaska, USA' dated September 30, 2020 can be accessed on www.sedar.com. According to the updated mineral resource estimate, at a 0.30% copper-equivalent cutoff,[1] the Pebble deposit contains:

2.6 million kg of Rhenium, 57 billion pounds of copper, 71 million ounces of gold, 3.4 billion pounds of molybdenum and 345 million ounces of silver within the 6.5 billion tonnes in the combined Measured and Indicated categories at a grade of 0.40% copper, 0.34 g/t gold, 240 ppm molybdenum, 1.7 g/t silver and 0.41 ppm rhenium; and

1.6 million kg of Rhenium, 25 billion pounds of copper, 36 million ounces of gold, 2.2 billion pounds of molybdenum and 170 million ounces of silver within the 4.5 billion tonnes in the Inferred category at a grade of 0.25% copper, 0.25 g/t gold, 226 ppm molybdenum, 1.2 g/t silver and 0.36 ppm rhenium.

After Pebble, the most significant deposits of Rhenium in the world exist at copper porphyry mines in Chile, including Chuquicamata (3.8 million kg) and El Teniente (2.76 million kg).[2]

Rhenium is considered a strategic metal by US Congress, the US Geological Survey, the US Department of Interior and the US military due to its primary use as an alloying metal in jet engine turbine blades, combustion chambers and exhaust nozzles - applications that rely on the metal's ductility and high melting point. Jet engine and related military applications account for ~80% of annual US Rhenium consumption, in addition to industrial applications that employ Rhenium as a catalyst - including for the production of high octane, lead-free gasoline.

Last year, the US imported 39,000 kg of Rhenium from foreign producers, while producing just 8,400 kg at six domestic mining operations. The addition of Pebble's future Rhenium production to existing domestic supply has the potential to drastically reduce US import reliance.[3]

The vulnerability of the United States' strategic metals supply chain, including Rhenium, has been identified and reinforced through a number of federal government programs and initiatives. For instance:

Presidential Order 13817, issued by President Trump in December 2017, instructs the Secretary of the Interior to establish a list of critical minerals and to develop recommendations to streamline permitting, and increase the domestic production of these critical minerals.[4]

In publishing its ‘Final List of Critical Minerals 2018,' which included Rhenium among 35 critical minerals, the US Department of Interior noted: "The United States is heavily reliant on imports of certain mineral commodities that are vital to the Nation's security and economic prosperity. This dependency of the United States on foreign sources creates a strategic vulnerability for both its economy and military to adverse foreign government action, natural disaster, and other events that can disrupt supply of these key minerals."[5]

A second Presidential Executive Order, issued September 30, further emphasizes the importance of developing mines that will provide a domestic supply of these critical minerals. The order "declares a national emergency with the aim of enhancing domestic mining production and processing for critical minerals, rare earth materials" with follow up timelines to enable the "United States to broadly enhance its mining and processing capacity, including for minerals not identified as critical minerals and not included within the national emergency declared in this order. By expanding and strengthening domestic mining and processing capacity today, we guard against the possibility of supply chain disruptions and future attempts by our adversaries or strategic competitors to harm our economy and military readiness."[6]

The primary source of Rhenium around the world is mining operations based on copper porphyry deposits like Pebble, which recover Rhenium as a by-product through the treatment of molybdenum concentrates.

As proposed, the Pebble Project will produce approximately 15,000 tons of molybdenum concentrate each year over 20 years of mining and mineral processing. The Rhenium content in Pebble's molybdenum concentrate is forecast to be in the range of 900 ppm.

The Final Environmental Impact Statement ("EIS") for Alaska's Pebble Project was released by the lead federal regulator, the US Army Corps of Engineers ("USACE"), in July 2020 following 2½ years of intensive study by 11 federal, state and local regulatory agencies, and extensive consultation with public stakeholders and Alaska Native tribes. The EIS found:

Pebble will protect the water resources of southwest Alaska;

Pebble will have no measurable impact on any fish population or fishery in the region; and

Pebble will make a profound economic contribution to the state and the nation, and particularly to the struggling Alaska Native villages in the project area.

The USACE is expected to issue a final Record of Decision for the Pebble Project this fall.

The technical information in this release was reviewed and approved by Stephen Hodgson, P.Eng., and David Gaunt, P.Geo., Qualified Persons who are not independent of Northern Dynasty. David Gaunt is also responsible for the August 2020 resource estimate.

About Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.

Northern Dynasty is a mineral exploration and development company based in Vancouver, Canada. Northern Dynasty's principal asset, owned through its wholly owned Alaska-based U.S. subsidiary, Pebble Limited Partnership ("PLP"), is a 100% interest in a contiguous block of 2,402 mineral claims in southwest Alaska, including the Pebble deposit. PLP is the proponent of the Pebble Project, an initiative to develop one of the world's most important mineral resources.

For further details on Northern Dynasty and the Pebble Project, please visit the Company's website at www.northerndynastyminerals.com or contact Investor services at (604) 684-6365 or within North America at 1-800-667-2114. Review Canadian public filings at www.sedar.com and US public filings at www.sec.gov.

Ronald W. Thiessen
President & CEO

US Media Contact:
Dan Gagnier
Gagnier Communications
(646) 569-5897

Forward Looking Information and other Cautionary Factors

This release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. These statements include statements regarding (i) the mine plan for the Pebble Project, (ii) the social integration of the Pebble Project into the Bristol Bay region and benefits for Alaska, (iii) the political and public support for the permitting process, (iv) the issuance of a positive Record of Decision by the US Army Corps of Engineers and the ability of the Pebble Project to secure state permits, (v) the right-sizing and de-risking of the Pebble Project, (vi) the design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project mine plan, (vii) exploration potential of the Pebble Project, (viii) future demand for copper and gold, (ix) the potential partnering of the Pebble Project, and (x) the ability and timetable of NDM to develop the Pebble Project and become a leading copper, gold and molybdenum producer. Although NDM believes the expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements should not be in any way be construed as guarantees that the Pebble Project will secure all required government permits, establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project or develop the Pebble Project. Assumptions used by NDM to develop forward-looking statements include the assumptions that (i) the Pebble Project will obtain all required environmental and other permits and all land use and other licenses without undue delay, (ii) studies for the development of the Pebble Project will be positive, (iii) NDM's estimates of mineral resources will not change, (iv) NDM will be able to establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project, and (v) NDM will be able to secure the financing required to develop the Pebble Project. The likelihood of future mining at the Pebble Project is subject to a large number of risks and will require achievement of a number of technical, economic and legal objectives, including (i) obtaining necessary mining and construction permits, licenses and approvals without undue delay, including without delay due to third party opposition or changes in government policies, (ii) finalization of the mine plan for the Pebble Project, (iii) the completion of feasibility studies demonstrating that any Pebble Project mineral resources that can be economically mined, (iv) completion of all necessary engineering for mining and processing facilities, (v) the inability of NDM to secure a partner for the development of the Pebble Project, and (vi) receipt by NDM of significant additional financing to fund these objectives as well as funding mine construction, which financing may not be available to NDM on acceptable terms or on any terms at all. NDM is also subject to the specific risks inherent in the mining business as well as general economic and business conditions, such as the current uncertainties with regard to COVID-19.

The National Environment Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement process requires a comprehensive "alternatives assessment" be undertaken to consider a broad range of development alternatives, the final project design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project and associated infrastructure may vary significantly from that contemplated in this presentation. As a result, the Company will continue to consider various development options and no final project design has been selected at this time.

For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and its home jurisdiction filings that are available at sedar.com

[1] CuEQ uses metal prices of $1.85/lb for copper, $902/oz for gold and $12.50/lb for molybdenum, and recoveries of 85% for copper 69.6% for gold, and 77.8% for molybdenum in the Pebble West zone and 89.3% for copper, 76.8% for gold, 83.7% for molybdenum in the Pebble East zone. Contained metal is based on 100% recoveries. Further details on the mineral resource estimate are available in the August 20, 2020 news release.

[2] https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1802/p/pp1802p.pdf

[3] United States Dept of the Interior, US Geological Survey - Mineral Commodities Summaries 2020 - Rhenium

[4] President of the United States, Executive Order 13817 - A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals, December 20, 2017 https://www.federalregister.gov/documen ... al-mineral

[5] Department of the Interior, Final List of Critical Minerals 2018, Federal Register, May 18, 2018 (Notices) https://www.federalregister.gov/documen ... erals-2018

[6]President of the United States, Executive Order - Addressing the Threat to the Domestic Supply Chain from Reliance on Critical Minerals from Foreign Adversaries - September 30, 2020 https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential ... versaries/

SOURCE: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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Game over zekers nu het Biden wordt.....?

https://www.outsideonline.com/2418304/p ... -explainer
" The word crisis in Chinese is composed of two characters: the first, the symbool of danger .... the second, of opportunity"

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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http://m.digitaljournal.com/pr/4876524

NDM op een virtuele investeerders-meeting.
Kan wel eens belangrijk zijn met de datum van 18/11 als uiterste mitigation filing date in het achterhoofd.

Op Yahoo gelezen:
NDM Presents on Monday the 16th at 11:00-11:25am

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/438858 ... is-greatly


Northern Dynasty Minerals: With Biden Winning, Pebble Mine's Probability Of Success Is Greatly Diminished

Nov. 12, 2020 4:45 PM ET|36 comments | About: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK)
Harrison Schwartz
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Summary
Northern Dynasty Minerals has seen extreme volatility this year due to the rise in gold and, more importantly, intense political drama and scandals surrounding permitting its Alaskan mining property.

Most Democratic leaders and activists are opposed to the Pebble Mine with Trump being apprehensive to allow permitting (under pressure from Trump Jr.).

The Obama-Biden Administration blocked the project in 2014 and Biden has vowed to do so again. With Biden winning and Congress moving to the left, Northern's prospects are further diminished.

However, if Northern wins the Pebble mine permit, I estimate that the company's fair value would rise to $4.1 per share if not higher, 400% greater than its price today.

Due to the expected permit veto, I would avoid the company. However, its warrants may be a better opportunity.

Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Conviction Dossier get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today »

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) is a precious and rare-earth metal exploration company headquartered in Alaska. The company does not currently have meaningful revenue-generating operations but has been pursuing a highly politically-charged project in a copper-gold-molybdenum project in Alaska.

This "Pebble Mine" project has the potential to significantly boost NAK's value. It is known that there are significant likely reserves of gold, copper, and molybdenum (a rare-earth metal that is largely produced in China). It is not entirely clear what returns these reserves will generate, but other analysts have estimated an unequivocal permit approval would increase NAK's fair-value to $2-$4 per share.

Indeed, the long-term return potential could be even higher as major mining companies look to acquire. However, Northern Dynasty has been pulled deep into the muck of ongoing U.S. political turmoil. With Biden expected to take office in January, NAK's prospects appear to have turned from poor to awful.

A Microcosm of U.S. Political Turmoil
The Pebble project has been subject to significant angst among political leaders as its location is home to a major wild salmon fishing area and is home to hundreds of fishing, hunting, and outdoor businesses and organizations. Not only are many environmental groups fighting the mining project but also Republicans like Donald Trump Jr., and Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski, who recently pledged to take further congressional actions including the use of the federal appropriations process to protect the Bristol Bay region. It is worth pointing out the Murkowski is the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee which gives her power Federal over environmental policy.

The Alaskan Republican Party has officially endorsed the Pebble Mine project's development and in July, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released an environmental impact statement supporting development. However, the stock has lost over half to its value since June and recently suffered large losses on the Biden victory as he has stated his opposition to the mine's construction. See the stock's recent performance below:

ChartData by YCharts
The peak came in July as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers gave NAK a positive environmental review. However, the stock plummeted in August after the Trump administration blocked the mine's development. The Corps then gave Northern Dynasty 90 days to respond to its mitigation plans to protect wetlands.

While Trump wants to increase rare-earth metal production, he has not been supportive of the Pebble mine. However, there was still hope among many investors that he would change his mind as he later mentioned "no-politics" would be involved in the review process. With Biden expected to take office in January and an overall increase in Democratic control in Congress, Northern Dynasty's prospects are severely blunted.

The CEO of the Pebble Limited Partnership also resigned in September after calls were secretly recorded (by activists posing as potential investors) where he boasted about relationships with GOP leaders and his effort to funnel money to Alaska's Republican politicians. Pebble's leadership also said that it planned to raise additional capital from investors and another $1.5B from the State of Alaska.

Given the pushback from lawmakers against the project, it is highly unlikely that they would give Northern Dynasty funds to pursue the project. This is problematic because it means the company may be making efforts to mislead investors (behind closed doors) about the viability of its project. This has caused short-seller J Capital Research to claim the company is 'gaslighting investors'.

With Democratic leaders taking office and many Republicans not supporting the Pebble project, Pebble's projects have been seriously diminished. The company has been pulled into a very similar situation to the owners of the Keystone XL Pipeline. The only major difference is that Northern is entirely dependent on Pebble's successful permitting and there appear to be more bipartisan efforts against Pebble. Biden has vowed to block the mine, so investors should be very cautious about betting that it will be approved.

What is NAK Worth Given a Permit Victory?
At this point, it is still possible Pebble will eventually be improved. It is home to one of the largest copper and gold deposits in the world and the company states its total resource is equivalent to 1.8% of all gold ever mined (latest investor presentation pg. 5). Indeed, this is a huge resource worth many billions, particularly for a company with a market capitalization of only $397M.

Of course, if it can manage to win a successful 'record of decision' from the Army, it will still need to go through State permitting and is not expected to commence mining operations until 2026-2027. Still, the company would likely sell the mine to a larger company quickly after a successful permit, opening the door to a quick estimated 3-5X return from its current price.

While the probability of a successful permit has declined, the project would likely deliver very strong returns to investors due to the vast resources which are inferred by exploration. Northern believes they would pull 362K oz of gold out of the ground per year which currently be worth $680M in revenue. This would likely around 200-$300M in profits based on the AISC of most miners.

Add on the significant copper, silver, and rare-earth estimated reserves, Northern could certainly generate $500M+ in annual profits. This gives me a conservative estimated fair-value valuation of $2B using a low "P/E" of 4X (400% higher - $4.13 per share) which depends on successful permitting and development. The risk that these estimates are not accurate remains an additional risk factor to consider.

The Bottom Line
There is little doubt that NAK will deliver significant returns if it can successfully win a permit. The company has made an effort to demonstrate its environmental feasibility and the Army Corps of Engineers did state that it believed the project would meet standards. Still, the company has been pulled deep into the era of U.S. political drama and division as well as growing environmental activism. Even worse, it has become one of the few areas where there is some bipartisan agreement that the Pebble project should not go forward. Since the Army COE operates at the pleasure of the President, he could have the project vetoed as the Obama-Biden Administration did in 2014.

In the less likely chance that Northern wins this battle in the face of recent events, it would likely double (if not more) so it is probably best not to short the stock. Personally, I would not touch the company and would much rather buy safer gold miners which are not a subject of U.S. political drama. Still, the company does have warrants trading on Canadian exchanges which I believe offers a much better risk-reward opportunity since they will gain more in the off-chance that the mine is successfully permitted and not blocked by the Biden administration.
Laatst gewijzigd door Droopymaes op 13 nov 2020 09:41, 1 keer totaal gewijzigd.
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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/murko ... 28679.html

Murkowski resource report disappoints Pebble Mine opponents
Thu., November 12, 2020, 2:22 p.m. GMT+1·2 min read
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Opponents of Alaska's Pebble Mine said they are disappointed with U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s wording of a bill to fund federal resource agencies.

Murkowski was involved in releasing the bill Tuesday that includes a 240-word passage about the mine in an explanatory report, Alaska Public Media reported.

The Republican senator can help determine the Pebble project’s outcome because she chairs the appropriations subcommittee writing annual bills to sustain the U.S. Department of the Interior and federal environmental agencies.

The Pebble Limited Partnership has proposed an open-pit mine with related infrastructure including a power plant and water treatment plants and tailings storage sites. The project is located in Alaska’s Bristol Bay region, where about half the world’s sockeye salmon comes from.

The Pebble partnership maintains the mine would do no measurable damage to the bay's salmon.

Tim Bristol, director of conservation organization SalmonState, said Murkowski appears to have passed up a chance to demonstrate her commitment to an October statement in which she said Pebble is the wrong mine in the wrong place.

“I think if we would’ve seen something that essentially recommended no spending be allowed in the next fiscal year to move forward with the Pebble project, that would’ve been a little more reassuring. But this doesn’t do that,” Bristol said. “It just seems to sort of describe the situation as it is right now.”

Murkowski’s Pebble passage reiterates that the Army Corps of Engineers determined the mine cannot be permitted as proposed, noting project managers have until mid-November to submit a wetlands mitigation plan.

The appropriations committee report encourages the government to deny the permit if the Pebble partnership fails to submit a complete and functional plan by the deadline.

Murkowski spokeswoman Karina Borger said the senator wanted the Corps to know it must hold the mitigation plan to a high standard and Pebble should end the process if the requirements cannot be met.

Pebble spokesman Mike Heatwole said the company is on track to produce a plan by Nov. 18.

The Associated Press

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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Northern Dynasty Minerals Faces Many Challenges Getting Pebble Mine Into Production
Nov. 13, 2020 5:31 AM ET | About: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK)


Outlook for federal support for the Pebble Mine has diminished with Biden's election. State political support is also mixed, while there is considerable opposition in Bristol Bay.

If the mine receives federal and state approval, Northern Dynasty would still need to find a partner willing to fund most of the project.

Given the protests and future legal battles around the mine, any potential partner would likely demand a better deal than what Anglo American got with its partnership.

There is also uncertainty about how operating costs may have evolved since the 2011 PEA.

Northern Dynasty's increasing share count limits its upside even if it manages to pass all those hurdles.

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Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) faces a host of challenges with getting Pebble Mine into production. The federal political environment for the mine has deteriorated with Biden's election. Even if the mine receives federal approval, its outlook at the state level looks uncertain due to significant local opposition. As well, there is the challenge of finding a partner willing to fund most of the project while dealing with legal battles and protests.

If the Pebble Mine does eventually make it into production, common shareholders may still not benefit that much. Northern Dynasty would probably have to give its partner most of the Pebble Project, and Northern Dynasty's outstanding share count has already more than quintupled since the end of 2014.

Northern Dynasty Minerals also trades as NDM on the Toronto Stock Exchange. A conversion rate of $1.00 USD to $1.31 CAD is used in this report.

Massive Political Risk
From a political standpoint, the Pebble Mine faces massive challenges. If President Trump had won a second term, there was a reasonable possibility that the mine would progress at the federal level, although Donald Trump Jr. opposed the mine due to its potential impact on the Bristol Bay fishery.

Joe Biden previously expressed his opposition to the Pebble Mine, so with his victory, there is a higher chance that the Pebble Project will be essentially on hold until at least early 2025.

The former CEO of the Pebble Partnership (Tom Collier) did indicate that he believed that a Biden administration would have trouble overturning federal permits once those permits are issued. Northern Dynasty is expected to submit a mitigation plan in the next couple weeks to address issues that the US Army Corps of Engineers [USACE] brought up in regards to the potential mine impact on wetlands and streams.

After that, a final decision could be made before the January changeover in federal government. However, there is no guarantee that a decision will be made by then or that the decision will be favorable to the Pebble Mine. As well, there is still uncertainty about how far the Biden administration would go to challenge the Pebble Mine if the USACE renders a favorable decision on the mine before the transition.

Even if the Pebble Project gets federal approval, there is also uncertainty about its ability to get state approval. Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy is one of the elected Alaskan officials who is probably most open to the project, but there appears to be mixed views towards the project from other Alaskan Republicans. For example, the Alaskan Republican Party announced that it supported the mine, but Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan have come out against the project.

Support for the Pebble Project among Alaskans seems uncertain as well. One poll indicated that 31% of Alaskans supported the construction of the Pebble Mine, while 62% opposed construction of the mine. This is a poll commissioned by the Bristol Bay Defense Fund but was done by a legitimate polling organization. Typically, partisan-commissioned polls done by legitimate polling companies have a modest bias of a few points. Adjusting for that would still put the Pebble Mine at well under 50% support in Alaska.

Funding Risk
Assuming that the Pebble Project gets both federal and state approval, it still needs to get funding for the mine. The total project costs were recently estimated at $5.5 billion USD. Northern Dynasty had $11 million USD in unrestricted cash on hand at the end of Q2 2020 and increased that to around $53 million USD in October (after a July equity offering). It also had a market capitalization of around $1.2 billion USD in late July, which represents its recent peak.

Thus, it would need to raise most of the funds for the mine development from partnering with a major mining company. That major mining company would need to put up several billion dollars' worth of capital while also dealing with the potential for legal battles and protests. I believe that it will be difficult for Northern Dynasty to find a partner willing to endure that. If Northern Dynasty can find a partner, the terms of the agreement will likely be quite unfavorable to Northern Dynasty due to the risks to the partner. It would not be surprising for Northern Dynasty to have to give up 75% or more of the project ownership in exchange for the partner funding most of the capex.

Additional Dilution
Northern Dynasty's outstanding share count has gone up from 95 million at the end of 2014 to 467.7 million at the end of Q2 2020 as it has needed to raise money multiple times to fund its continuing operations. After its most recent share offering, Northern Dynasty appears to have 508 million shares outstanding. Fully diluted, it has around 555.5 million shares outstanding.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 2020
95.0 221.9 270.9 308.2 313.4 422.9 467.7


Source: Northern Dynasty Minerals

Northern Dynasty has averaged operational cash burn of approximately $40 million USD per year over the last several years. If all its outstanding options and warrants are exercised, it may have enough cash on hand to last until mid-2022.

By 2025, it could end up with approximately 656 million shares outstanding if it raises money to fund ongoing cash burn (between mid-2022 and the beginning of 2025) at an average of $1.00 USD per share. At $0.50 USD per share, it may end up with 756 million shares outstanding by that point.

Valuation and Conclusion
I consider Northern Dynasty Minerals to be a sell at its current share price. It is facing deteriorating support at the federal level (due to the 2020 election) and has uncertain support at the state level. There is also the prospect of considerable local opposition from Bristol Bay fishermen and residents.

If Northern Dynasty is able to secure the necessary mine permits anyway, it still needs to find a partner willing to fund most of the project and to deal with the inevitable legal battles and protests to come. Northern Dynasty may need to give up a majority stake in the project to achieve this. If it gives up an 80% stake in the project and has around $500 million USD in remaining funding commitments, I'd estimate that Northern Dynasty's share could be worth around $1.5 billion USD net of debt once the mine enters production. This is based on current metal prices and the costs assumed in its 2011 PEA (which is quite outdated at this point). Escalating costs could make the value of the project considerably less.

Thus, Northern Dynasty may be worth around $2 USD per share (assuming further dilution to fund operations) if it can get permits, find a partner to fund most of the project and get the mine into operation with the level of costs assumed in its 2011 PEA. Given the relatively low probability of achieving all that, at close to $1 USD per share, Northern Dynasty appears to be overpriced currently. If one assumes 20% odds (which I think is on the high side) of the mine making into production this decade, Northern Dynasty would be worth around $0.40 USD per share.

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NAK/nor ... 8al0l.html

Northern Dynasty: Compensatory Mitigation Plan for Alaska's Pebble Project submitted to US Army Corps of Engineers
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November 16, 2020 - 9:25 am
VANCOUVER, BC / November 16, 2020 / Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX:NDM)(NYSE American:NAK) ("Northern Dynasty" or the "Company") announces that its 100%-owned US-based subsidiary Pebble Limited Partnership (the "Pebble Partnership") has submitted a Compensatory Mitigation Plan ("CMP") for the Pebble Project to the US Army Corps of Engineers ("USACE") ahead of the 90-day deadline that expires on November 18, 2020.

Northern Dynasty and the Pebble Partnership believe the submitted CMP fully satisfies mitigation requirements for the proposed copper-gold-molybdenum-silver-rhenium mine in southwest Alaska.

Following publication of a positive Final Environmental Impact Statement ("EIS") in July 2020, the USACE published its mitigation requirements for Pebble on August 20, 2020 and provided the Pebble Partnership with 90 days to submit a CMP to address them. Filing an approved CMP for the project is a necessary prerequisite to receiving a federal Record of Decision ("ROD").

"The 'in-kind' and ‘in-watershed' requirement for mitigation the USACE established for Pebble clearly sets a high bar for offsetting project effects on wetlands and other aquatic features, but it's a challenge we have embraced and believe we can achieve," said Ron Thiessen, Northern Dynasty President & CEO.

"Based on the findings of the Final EIS, we already know Pebble can operate safely and reliably, while fully protecting the water, fish and wildlife resources of Bristol Bay. Meeting the USACE's challenging mitigation requirements provides even greater evidence that Pebble can and will co-exist with commercial, subsistence and sport fisheries in southwest Alaska."

In addition to meeting the rigorous environmental standards enforced in the Clean Water Act and other US federal legislation, Thiessen said the Final EIS for Pebble indicates the project will make important, positive socioeconomic contributions to the region, the state and the nation.

"Pebble will also deliver the critical and strategic minerals the United States requires for its economic and military security," he said, "while helping facilitate the transition to a ‘lower carbon future.'"

Thiessen said Pebble Partnership technical/permitting staff and expert, third-party consultants in Alaska have prepared a high-quality mitigation plan to fully satisfy the lead federal agencies' requirements - including undertaking extensive field investigations this summer and fall. He cautioned Pebble won't be releasing any details about the CMP until it is accepted by the USACE and posted to its website.

"We have an experienced team in Alaska that has identified both the means and mechanism to meet the ‘in-kind' and ‘in watershed' mitigation requirements, and complete a CMP that we believe will be acceptable to the USACE in form and content," he said. "Until this work is completed to the Corps' full satisfaction, we won't be discussing the details of our plan."

There is no statutory timeline for the USACE's review of the Pebble CMP. Northern Dynasty's current expectation is that its sufficiency will be confirmed prior to or concurrent with issuance of a final Record of Decision.

About Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.

Northern Dynasty is a mineral exploration and development company based in Vancouver, Canada. Northern Dynasty's principal asset, owned through its wholly owned Alaska-based U.S. subsidiary, Pebble Limited Partnership ("PLP"), is a 100% interest in a contiguous block of 2,402 mineral claims in southwest Alaska, including the Pebble deposit. PLP is the proponent of the Pebble Project, an initiative to develop one of the world's most important mineral resources.

For further details on Northern Dynasty and the Pebble Project, please visit the Company's website at www.northerndynastyminerals.com or contact Investor services at (604) 684-6365 or within North America at 1-800-667-2114. Review Canadian public filings at www.sedar.com and US public filings at www.sec.gov.

Ronald W. Thiessen
President & CEO

US Media Contact:
Dan Gagnier
Gagnier Communications
(646) 569-5897

Forward Looking Information and other Cautionary Factors

This release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. These statements include statements regarding (i) the mine plan for the Pebble Project, (ii) the social integration of the Pebble Project into the Bristol Bay region and benefits for Alaska, (iii) the political and public support for the permitting process, (iv) the issuance of a positive Record of Decision by the US Army Corps of Engineers and the ability of the Pebble Project to secure state permits, (v) the right-sizing and de-risking of the Pebble Project, (vi) the design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project mine plan, (vii) exploration potential of the Pebble Project, (viii) future demand for copper and gold, (ix) the potential partnering of the Pebble Project, and (x) the ability and timetable of NDM to develop the Pebble Project and become a leading copper, gold and molybdenum producer. Although NDM believes the expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements should not be in any way be construed as guarantees that the Pebble Project will secure all required government permits, establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project or develop the Pebble Project. Assumptions used by NDM to develop forward-looking statements include the assumptions that (i) the Pebble Project will obtain all required environmental and other permits and all land use and other licenses without undue delay, (ii) studies for the development of the Pebble Project will be positive, (iii) NDM's estimates of mineral resources will not change, (iv) NDM will be able to establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project, and (v) NDM will be able to secure the financing required to develop the Pebble Project. The likelihood of future mining at the Pebble Project is subject to a large number of risks and will require achievement of a number of technical, economic and legal objectives, including (i) obtaining necessary mining and construction permits, licenses and approvals without undue delay, including without delay due to third party opposition or changes in government policies, (ii) finalization of the mine plan for the Pebble Project, (iii) the completion of feasibility studies demonstrating that any Pebble Project mineral resources that can be economically mined, (iv) completion of all necessary engineering for mining and processing facilities, (v) the inability of NDM to secure a partner for the development of the Pebble Project, and (vi) receipt by NDM of significant additional financing to fund these objectives as well as funding mine construction, which financing may not be available to NDM on acceptable terms or on any terms at all. NDM is also subject to the specific risks inherent in the mining business as well as general economic and business conditions, such as the current uncertainties with regard to COVID-19.

The National Environment Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement process requires a comprehensive "alternatives assessment" be undertaken to consider a broad range of development alternatives, the final project design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project and associated infrastructure may vary significantly from that contemplated in this presentation. As a result, the Company will continue to consider various development options and no final project design has been selected at this time.

For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and its home jurisdiction filings that are available at www.sedar.com

SOURCE: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.

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Re: Northern Dynasty Minerals - NAK

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