Sun, January 24, 2021, 3:36 PM·3 min read
Up more than 1,150% in the past year, Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO (NIO) turned into one of the best-performing stocks of 2020 -- but one analyst thinks there are more gains to come.
Initiating coverage on the "epitome of Chinese luxury brand[s]" and "domestic leader in EV manufacturing," Nomura analyst Martin Heung argues that even after its steep run-up, Nio stock remains a "buy" and has at least another 30% to run (above Friday's closing share price of $61.95).
So why does Heung like Nio? In one word: Growth. And in another word: Batteries.
On the growth front, Heung observes that EV-friendly infrastructure in China is improving, encouraging more car buyers to make the leap to electrics. "Conservatively," says the analyst, by as early as 2025 16.5% of new cars sold in the Middle Kingdom should be electrics, which implies an overall 31% annual sales growth rate for the industry (and probably a faster growth rate for leaders like Nio). Additionally, at some point electrics should reach critical mass (Heung estimates this will happen at 20% market penetration), which will convince even more car buyers to transition to electrics -- accelerating sales growth further.
Helping Nio to maintain a market-leading position in China will be its "batteries as a service" (BaaS) business model, in which Nio sells cars to customers, leases the batteries to run those cars -- and then offers customers the ability to swap out their current batteries for new, fully-charged batteries as a faster alternative to charging the batteries.
"By improving swapping time to only three minutes" and by placing such battery swapping stations throughout "most parts of the major cities in China, NIO hopes to redefine the whole user experience of owning an EV," says Heung. Swappable batteries, notes the analyst, helps to eliminate customers' range anxiety at the same time as it reduces wait times at charging stations, improving the customer experience in two different ways. Additionally, when arguably the most expensive and most important part of an electric car -- the battery -- is removed from the equation, customers will no longer need to worry about whether an aged car battery might reduce the resale value of their cars years down the road, removing yet another impediment to making a sale.
In this way, Nio's BaaS strategy also helps to differentiate Nio's offerings, and builds a moat around the business. Widening and deepening that moat even further (to steal a phrase from Warren Buffett), Nio is encouraging customers to sign up for long-term, five-year battery leases in exchange for a lower cost per year -- essentially locking customers into its ecosystem for the lease term.
All of the above, says Heung, positions Nio to become "the dominant power in China," in electric vehicles, at a time when EV adoption is surging, says the analyst. Even valuing the stock at a 25% discount to the prices investors are paying for its highest profile US rival, Tesla (on a price-to-sales basis), Heung feels these factors justify placing an $80.30 price target on Nio stock.
So, that’s Nomura's view. Let’s have a look at what the rest of the Street has in mind for NIO shares. Based on 8 Buys and 6 Holds, the analyst consensus is a Moderate Buy. However, going by the $59.40 average price target, shares are anticipated to be changing hands at a 4% discount.
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Recordmaand voor NIO
De Chinese bouwer van elektrische auto’s NIO NIO.N0,00% , die op de New York Stock Exchange noteert, gaat hoger in de voorbeurshandel. Straks dus in het oog te houden.
NIO maakte bekend dat in januari 7.225 auto’s heeft geleverd, wat eennieuw maandrecord is. In vergelijking met een jaar eerder is dat een toename met meer dan 350 procent. Van de grote SUV ES8s werden 1.660 exemplaren geleverd, van de compacte SUV ES6s 2.720 exemplaren en van de ‘coupé SUV’ EC6s 2.845 stuks.
In januari werd het gamma uitgebreid met een sedanmodel, de ET7 (foto). Sinds begin juli 2020 ging de koers van NIO maal 8.
(04/02) - Bron: Reuters
NIO INC SIGNED AGREEMENT WITH CHINA'S HEFEI CITY GOVERNMENT TO BUILD EV INDUSTRIAL PARK IN HEFEI FOR EV RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND MANUFACTURING BASES
Tesla p/b= 50.26
Nio p / b= 72.29
Dus aan de hand van deze gegevens is NIO 'nog' meer overpriced dan TESLA
Is er iets dat er in de toekomst zit aan te komen die deze p/b rechtvaardigt?
Maar imo rechtvaardigt het wel op dit moment een hogere premium (als ze die groei kunnen aanhouden).
https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-rel ... and-full-1
Quarterly Total Revenues reached RMB6,641.1 million (US$1,017.8 million)i
Quarterly Deliveries of the ES8, the ES6 and the EC6 were 17,353 vehicles
Full Year Total Revenues reached RMB16,257.9 million (US$2,491.6 million)
Full Year Deliveries of the ES8, the ES6 and the EC6 were 43,728 vehicles
Financial Highlights for the Fourth Quarter of 2020
* Vehicle sales were RMB6,174.0 million (US$946.2 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 130.0% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of 44.7% from the third quarter of 2020.
* Vehicle marginii was 17.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with negative 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 14.5% in the third quarter of 2020.
* Total revenues were RMB6,641.1 million (US$1,017.8 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 133.2% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of 46.7% from the third quarter of 2020.
* Gross profit was RMB1,141.9 million (US$175.0 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing an increase of RMB1,395.7 million from a gross loss of RMB253.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of RMB556.1 million from the third quarter of 2020.
* Gross margin was 17.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with negative 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 12.9% in the third quarter of 2020.
* Loss from operations was RMB931.4 million (US$142.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a decrease of 67.0% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and a decrease of 1.5% from the third quarter of 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, adjusted loss from operations (non-GAAP) was RMB871.2 million (US$133.5 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a decrease of 68.6% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and a decrease of 2.9% from the third quarter of 2020.
* Net loss was RMB1,388.6 million (US$212.8 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a decrease of 51.5% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of 32.6% from the third quarter of 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was RMB 1,328.4 million (US$203.6 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a decrease of 52.8% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of 33.1% from the third quarter of 2020.
* Net loss attributable to NIO’s ordinary shareholders was RMB1,492.2 million (US$228.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a decrease of 48.4% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and an increase of 25.6% from the third quarter of 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and accretion on redeemable non-controlling interests to redemption value, adjusted net loss attributable to NIO’s ordinary shareholders (non-GAAP) was RMB1,326.2 million (US$203.2 million).
* Basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share (ADS)iii were both RMB1.05 (US$0.16) in the fourth quarter of 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and accretion on redeemable non-controlling interests to redemption value, adjusted basic and diluted net loss per ADS (non-GAAP) were both RMB0.93 (US$0.14).
* Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investment were RMB42.5 billion (US$6.5 billion) as of December 31, 2020.