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Ik doe een gewaagde gok. Nasdaq100 binnen 1-2 jaar 30 tot 50% lager dan vandaag. Dan is het sowieso over en out met Cathie. Ik kan mij moeilijk voorstellen dat we deze peperdure niveaus lang gaan vasthouden... waarderingen van groeibedrijven zijn exuberant momenteel. We zullen het zien wat het wordt. Ik heb zelf al een aantal beurscrashes meegemaakt, de eerste was de TMT crast einde jaren 90.
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- Lid geworden op: 31 okt 2013 09:48
- Locatie: Pangasinan
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Al maanden horen we niks meer van hem: Jack Ma, de steenrijke oprichter van Alibaba, houdt zich stil sinds hij in ongenade is gevallen bij de Chinese autoriteiten. In The Wall Street Journal lezen we wat er is mis is gegaan. ‘Hij gedroeg zich te veel als een Amerikaanse ondernemer’, zeggen mensen die Ma goed kennen. ‘Hij heeft waarschuwingen daarover jarenlang in de wind geslagen.’ Ma had zich bescheidener moeten opstellen, niet alleen aan zijn eigen zakenbelangen moeten denken en méér moeten doen voor de gemeenschap’, heet het in kringen van de partij. Toen Ma probeerde om de relatie met de autoriteiten te verbeteren was het te laat.
Het jammere aan de situatie is dat de beurskoers nog maar weinig correleert met de fundamentele waarde. Er gaan mensen hier nog veel geld aan verdienen of net aan kwijt geraken.
Mogelijk te zeggen welk het meest plausibele is.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/445126 ... -is-enough
The question on everyone's mind is: How far will the CCP go and just how bad could things get for BABA investors?
The China Risks
The risks associated with China and the CCP, as well as the VIE structures that Chinese companies use to trade abroad, are easily misunderstood. It is a complex situation, and many things could happen, so I'm going to try to boil it down to three possible scenarios:
A word that has been thrown around a lot lately, is "delisting". To trade in the US, companies have to follow certain rules and the accounts have to be audited by the SEC. Chinese companies were exempt from this to an extent, but the US and SEC are now imposing the same rules on China. This would mean that Alibaba would have to expose its accounts to US auditors, which it doesn't do now. As things stand, these Chinese companies have around 2-3 years to comply with this.
Will BABA get delisted? I feel like this is unlikely. BABA is the largest Chinese company, and, although under different standards, it has been publicly reporting its accounting since its IPO. Even if China/BABA wants to hide something nefarious, there's no reason to believe they couldn't still do it even after being audited by the SEC. Fraud happens within the US borders, so there's little chance of stopping it abroad.
Nonetheless, could the US just delist, and ban OTC trading of BABA as a political move even if they "comply"? Of course, anything is possible, but it is hard to see how this move would make sense geopolitically. Financial institutions in the US have significant exposure to BABA, with 42% of shares owned by institutions, and it would not serve the country's image very well.
A much more prevalent threat, in my opinion, is the idea that China might nationalize Alibaba. How likely is this? Still unlikely, but much more likely than a year ago. The CCP has already taken a stake in other private companies, such as ByteDance. Furthermore, the Ant financial restructuring was mostly done to allow the CCP more control over the company's activities in the fintech space.
If China did nationalize BABA, then it is possible that owners of VIE shares would be left holding the bag. The VIE structure is considered illegal in China, which would give the CCP the perfect excuse to disregard the "rights'' of these investors. Alibaba wants to use the VIE structure to obtain funding, but a company owned and funded by the CCP would have no such need.
Of course, such a move would severely limit BABA's international expansion efforts. But again, this might not concern the CCP that much, especially given the latest political moves which show that China is trying to distance itself from the outside.
BABA activities curtailed
Lastly, the most significant risk, and something that is taking place right now, is the idea that BABA's growth and profitability might suffer as a result. This has indeed already happened with the Ant Financial restructuring, which could have reduced the value of the company by 20-30%. Capital restraints and the newly imposed data privacy laws will also curtail BABA's profit-making abilities.
For years, BABA has been hailed as an eCommerce monster, which also had incredible upside thanks to higher profit businesses in Cloud and Fintech. Now, Alibaba's CEO has come out to talk about the slowdown in Cloud growth as well as regulatory concerns.
BABA might continue to trade and operate for years to come, but just how profitable will the company be for investors, when their needs are second to those of the CCP? This is perhaps the biggest concern, in our opinion, that investors face today.