Walt Disney

[tec7]

Ik blijf voorlopig aan de kant staan maar hou de evolutie wel in het oog.

[sjos]

Ik blijf voorlopig aan de kant staan maar hou de evolutie wel in het oog.

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is set to report its fourth quarter results on Wednesday and investors will watch out for improvement in the streaming business after the media conglomerate’s announcement regarding price hikes, cost-cutting initiatives and focus on making quality content.
Wall Street expects Disney to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71, while revenue is expected to grow 6.3% at $21.41 billion.
Disney, which is aiming to achieve profitability for its streaming segment by 2024, is facing a host of challenges including the Hollywood strike that delayed production, higher production cost and falling subscribers due to intense competition from rivals including Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Video.
However, to allay investor worries, Disney boosted price for the core ad-free Disney+ service by 27% in August, while raising Hulu’s ad-free service by 20%. Mirroring Netflix’s move, Disney CEO Bob Iger also said the company will get in to the issue of password sharing by 2024.
“We are optimistic that Disney Plus price increases will be highly revenue and OI accretive and that the adsupported tier will drive strong advertising revenue growth at DTC in FY24,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne.
Disney also hired PepsiCo veteran Hugh Johnston as its CFO, aiming to help the entertainment giant turn its fortune amid pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz, sagging share price and decline in its streaming business.
The stock has fallen more than 5% so far this year.
“Disney needs a hard catalyst, which refers to a tangible event that exerts an immediate and straightforward influence on a company's stock price,” pointed out Seeking Alpha analyst Piotr Kasprzyk.
Investors are also looking for the company to maintain growth in its Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, while expecting commentaries regarding capital spending for its park business, the sale of its India operation and acquiring Hulu stake.
Over the last two years, Disney has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 50% of the time.
Seeking Alpha analysts, Wall Street and Seeking Alpha’s Quant ratings are bullish considering the stock a “buy”.
Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions, compared to 14 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have seen one upward revision versus 13 downward moves.

Bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4032006-s ... q4-results

[sjos]

Entertainment- en mediaconcern Walt Disney heeft het afgelopen kwartaal het aantal abonnees bij zijn streamingdienst Disney+ zien stijgen met bijna 7 miljoen tot 112,6 miljoen abonnees. Met name buiten thuismarkt Noord-Amerika is het aantal afgesloten abonnementen toe, toegenomen meldt het bedrijf bij de presentatie van zijn kwartaalcijfers. De afgelopen kwartalen liep het aantal abonnees nog terug.
In totaal hebben de streamingdiensten van het mediaconcern, waar naast Disney+ ook Hulu en Disney+ Hotstar onder vallen, ruim 5 miljard dollar (4,7 miljard euro) opgebracht. Dat is 12 procent meer dan in hetzelfde kwartaal vorig jaar.

In het derde kwartaal heeft Walt Disney een omzet van 21,2 miljard dollar (19,7 miljard euro) geboekt, een stijging van 5 procent vergeleken met hetzelfde kwartaal vorig jaar. Overige inkomsten zijn afkomstig uit de pret- en themaparken, maar ook uit sportzender ESPN en de filmdivisie, met studio's als Pixar Animation, Lucasfilm en Marvel Studios. Onder de streep bleef een winst over van 694 miljoen dollar, tegenover 254 miljoen dollar in hetzelfde kwartaal vorig jaar.

Bron: Belga

[sjos]

De Tijd echter zorgt voor entertainment:
"ENTERTAINMENT
Groei pretparken dempt verder afkalvende klassieke tv-business Disney
Entertainmentreus Disney houdt koers om zijn verlieslatende streamingdivisie breakeven te krijgen. Dat is cruciaal omdat zijn traditionele cashkoe, klassieke tv, verder krimpt."
Bron: De Tijd vandaag 08.00 h

[sjos]

De Tijd echter zorgt voor entertainment:
"ENTERTAINMENT
Groei pretparken dempt verder afkalvende klassieke tv-business Disney
Entertainmentreus Disney houdt koers om zijn verlieslatende streamingdivisie breakeven te krijgen. Dat is cruciaal omdat zijn traditionele cashkoe, klassieke tv, verder krimpt."
Bron: De Tijd vandaag 08.00 h

Biggest stock gainers
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) gained as much as 6% after exceeding profit expectations in its Q4 earnings report. The increase was attributable to more aggressive cost-cutting and stronger-than-expected growth in streaming subscriptions. Despite falling short of the consensus mark in top-line revenue, the company is on track to achieve $7.5B in annualized cost savings, surpassing expectations by $2B.

Momenteel: DIS 90.63 +6.13 +7.25%

[sjos]

Disney: More Pain Likely - Only For Contrarian Buyers
Nov. 14, 2023 10:00 AM ETThe Walt Disney Company (DIS)CMCSA
Summary
DIS may face more pain in the near term, as rumors suggest a potential sale of its profitable linear network business as a way to fund the unprofitable Hulu acquisition.
The restart of its content productions from December 2023 may also trigger expanded expenditures, delaying its eventual FY2024 cost savings.
Depending on the DIS management's choice of fund-raising for Hulu, be it through debt, share dilution, and/ or cash, we believe that its near-term prospects are uncertain.
Iger continues to push for a potential reinstatement of dividends before the end of the calendar year as well, with any announcement likely to be disappointing.
As a result of the mixed prospects, it is immediately apparent that the DIS stock is only suitable for growth-oriented investors looking for undervalued contrarian plays.
We previously covered Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) in August 2023, discussing its intensified streaming monetization efforts, likely taking a leaf out of NFLX's playbook with paid sharing from 2024 onwards.
This was on top of the raised D2C subscription prices from October 2023 and entry into sports betting, likely to bring forth improved top and bottom lines, resulting in our Buy rating then.
In this article, we will be discussing DIS's mixed prospects as the restart of content productions from December 2023 may trigger expanded expenditures, delaying its eventual cost savings. This is on top of the potential divestiture of its highly profitable linear networks, as a way to finance the Hulu acquisition.
Given its mixed near-term prospects, the stock is only suitable for contrarian investors who are looking to buy and hold for the long term. We shall discuss further.
DIS' Near-Term Prospects Appear To Be Uncertain
For now, DIS has recorded a bottom-line beat in its FQ4'23 earnings call, with revenues of $21.24B (-4.8% QoQ/+5.4% YoY) and adj EPS of $0.82 (-21.1% QoQ/+173.3% YoY).
DIS Cost Optimizations
DIS' profitability tailwind in the latest quarter is partly attributed to the management's aggressive cost optimizations at an annualized sum of $7.5B, compared to the original guidance of $5.5B.
However, we believe that eagle-eyed investors may note that most of the cost savings is attributed to the reduced content spend of $1.5B, thanks to the previous SAG-AFTRA/WGA strikes.
With both strikes already concluding, we believe that DIS is unlikely to sustain this one-time cost saving, attributed to the restart of content productions from 2024 onwards, if not December 2023.
While we maintain our optimism surrounding the media company's robust IPs, it remains to be seen when the superhero fatigue may end, with the management already delaying several of its upcoming Marvel movies. The latter is likely attributed to the underwhelming box office returns thus far, while partly delayed by the strikes.
We believe that Mr. Market and shareholders are keenly aware of these headwinds as well, with the DIS stock already returning most of its hyper-pandemic and pre-pandemic gains, drastically returning to its 2014 levels.
It is also uncertain when bullish support may materialize, given the stock's lower lows and lower highs since the March 2021 top.
We believe that DIS' headwinds have yet to end as well, since it may have to fork out approximately $15B for Comcast's (CMCSA) 33% stake in the streaming service, Hulu. This is based on our assumption that Hulu may be valued at $45B, in our previous CMCSA article here, with an FWD EV/Revenue valuation of 4x, thanks to its high growth trend.
It also remains to be seen if its rumored linear TV divestment may occur, as a speculative way to raise funds for the potentially expensive Hulu acquisition. While its linear networks may not be a revenue driver at $2.6B (-61.1% QoQ/-10.3% YoY) by the latest quarter, it is a bottom-line driver at $0.8B (-57.8% QoQ/in line YoY) for the entertainment segment after all.
While it is unknown how the DIS management may actually execute the divestment, we believe that it may be a mistake to sell off its profitable cable channels to pay for the currently unprofitable Hulu, despite cable's irreversible secular decline and the potentially "accretive synergy/churn benefit worth $30B."
For now, the media company already reports a moderating long-term debt of $42.1B (-5.4% QoQ/-7% YoY) and growing cash/short-term investments of $14.18B (+23.8% QoQ/+22.1% YoY) by the latest quarter.
Depending on the DIS management's choice of fund-raising for Hulu, be it through debt, share dilution, and/or cash, we believe that its near-term prospects are uncertain, especially since Iger continues to push for a potential reinstatement of dividends before the end of the calendar year.
If a dividend is declared, we believe the sum may not match the annualized sum of $1.76 prior to the suspension in FY2019, attributed to its reduced Free Cash Flow generation of $4.9B in FY2023 (+345.4% YoY), compared to FY2019 FCF levels of $8.7B (-11.2% YoY).
As a result of these developments, we believe that things may get worse for DIS, before it gets better.
DIS's Valuations Have Merely Normalized To Its Historical Means
For now, DIS' FWD valuations appear to be drastically moderated compared to their 1Y and 5Y means.
However, we would like to highlight that its FWD EV/EBIT of 13.96x and FWD P/E of 19.95x have only normalized from the hyper-pandemic heights of 66.93x/479.99x to its 3Y pre-pandemic means of 13.72x/18.01x.
Based on DIS' FY2023 EBIT generation of $12.9B (+6.6% YoY) and its FQ4'23 share count of 1.83B, we are looking at an EBIT per share of $7.04 (+6% YoY). Combined with its FWD EV/EBIT valuation of 13.96x, it appears that the stock is trading well below its fair value of $98.27.
For now, the consensus forward estimates seem to be rather optimistic, with DIS expected to record a top and bottom line CAGR of +6.2% and +8.7% through FY2026, reversing the decline in its EBIT profitability at a CAGR of -2.3% between FY2017 and FY2023, respectively.
Based on the consensus FY2026 adj EBIT estimates of $16.5B, it appears that there is still an excellent upside potential of +42.4% to our long-term price target of $125.77 as well.
While these growth projections may occur in the far future, thanks to its highly profitable theme park business and improving monetization of the D2C segment, we are not certain if the floor to the DIS stock's decline may materialize in the near term. This is especially with the relatively intense FY2024 content and capex spending guidance of $25B (-8% YoY) and $6B (+20% YoY), respectively.
This is compared to its FY2019 levels of $17.6B and $4.9B, implying that we may see its FCF generation temporarily disappoint, depending on the speculative divestment of its linear networks.
So, Is DIS Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
As a result of the mixed prospects, it is immediately apparent that the DIS stock is only suitable for growth-oriented investors looking for undervalued contrarian plays.
While we are cautiously optimistic about its long-term prospects, there may be more pain over the next few quarters of uncertainties, with it remaining to be seen if the $80s bottom may hold.
Therefore, while we may rate the DIS stock as a Buy, investors may want to observe its movement for a little longer, before adding according to their risk appetite and dollar cost averages, preferably at its tried-and-tested support level of $80s for an improved margin of safety.
Additionally, investors should closely monitor the management's next few moves, since they may be crucial in reversing Mr. Market's currently pessimistic sentiment.

Bron: seekingalpha

[sjos]

""Niet de films, maar de parken zijn de grootste geldmachine van Disney. Het zijn dan ook de derde en vierde "Frozen"-film die het merk relevant moeten houden. Want dat is wat het is: "Frozen" is een sterk merk op zichzelf", vertelt Broos."

Bron: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/11/23 ... franchise/

[Phillipe]

Update: activistische belegger neemt aanzienlijk belang in Disney19:36

. Investeerder Third Point van de activistische belegger Dan Loeb heeft een "aanzienlijk" belang genomen in Disney, nadat eerder dit jaar juist nog een groot belang in het entertainmentbedrijf werd verkocht.

In een brief aan Disney CEO Bob Chapek prees Loeb de groei van Disney's streaming-abonnees. Maar de activistische belegger wil ook dat Disney de kosten agressiever gaat verlagen en een aantal stappen overweegt om zijn portfolio te vernieuwen.

Zo roept Loeb Disney op om de rest van streamingdienst Hulu te kopen en om een spin-off van ESPN te verkennen. Verder is het bestuur van Disney aan vernieuwing toe, aldus Loeb.

"We verwelkomen de standpunten van al onze investeerders", zei Disney maandag in een reactie, waarin het ook de expertise van zijn bestuur prees.

Vorige week kwam Disney met beter dan verwachte kwartaalcijfers. Streamingdienst Disney+ wist 14,4 miljoen nieuwe abonnees aan te trekken.

Het aandeel Disney stijgt maandag zo'n 3 procent in New York.

Upate: om reactie Disney toe te voegen.

[sjos]

Update: activistische belegger neemt aanzienlijk belang in Disney19:36

. Investeerder Third Point van de activistische belegger Dan Loeb heeft een "aanzienlijk" belang genomen in Disney, nadat eerder dit jaar juist nog een groot belang in het entertainmentbedrijf werd verkocht.

In een brief aan Disney CEO Bob Chapek prees Loeb de groei van Disney's streaming-abonnees. Maar de activistische belegger wil ook dat Disney de kosten agressiever gaat verlagen en een aantal stappen overweegt om zijn portfolio te vernieuwen.

Zo roept Loeb Disney op om de rest van streamingdienst Hulu te kopen en om een spin-off van ESPN te verkennen. Verder is het bestuur van Disney aan vernieuwing toe, aldus Loeb.

"We verwelkomen de standpunten van al onze investeerders", zei Disney maandag in een reactie, waarin het ook de expertise van zijn bestuur prees.

Vorige week kwam Disney met beter dan verwachte kwartaalcijfers. Streamingdienst Disney+ wist 14,4 miljoen nieuwe abonnees aan te trekken.

Het aandeel Disney stijgt maandag zo'n 3 procent in New York.

Upate: om reactie Disney toe te voegen.

Summary
Disney shares have experienced a significant decline since March 2021, but recent price action suggests a potential buying opportunity.
Volume indicators show that institutions and smart money are accumulating shares of Disney, indicating bullish sentiment.
Momentum indicators, such as the Percentage Price Oscillator, indicate both short-term and long-term bullish momentum in Disney's stock.
In this article, I will outline why I think now is an opportunistic time to buy shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). I will examine price action, volume, momentum, and relative strength using a weekly price chart. I will also identify a risk management strategy in case the stock goes against my thesis. Let’s look at the weekly price chart.
Chart 1 shows the weekly price action of DIS since late 2020. DIS shares hit $202.36 in March 2021 and ever since then DIS shares have declined. Chart 1 also shows the 30-week exponential moving average (EMA) which I like to use as a medium to long-term moving average. After DIS hit its high in March 2021 there was no technical indication that the high was reached. However, there were some indications that you should’ve exited DIS, albeit not when the stock was over $200. For the eight months after DIS hit $202.36, DIS shares stayed above the upward sloping 30-week EMA, which I would regard as bullish. However, in September 2021 DIS shares closed below the 30-week EMA and that was a good sign to close a long position in DIS. Then in November 2021 the real decline began. Price closed below the low that DIS made in January 2021. Also, noteworthy, in November 2021 the 30-week EMA started rolling over. It was no longer trending upwards. It doesn’t make sense to own stocks that are below a downward sloping 30-week EMA. DIS declined to a low of $89.94 in July 2022. Then DIS rallied back to $126.07 in August 2022, but DIS couldn’t hold the 30-week EMA. It’s rare that a stock can stay above a downward sloping 30-week EMA for any length of time. DIS then went on to make a new low, a lower low, at $83.80 in December 2022. DIS rallied again to $117.80 in February 2023 which was a lower high compared to the high made in August 2022. You can see the series of lower lows and lower highs, which is the definition of a downtrend. A positive note on the rally to $117.80 is that DIS managed to stay above the 30-week EMA for five weeks. That indicated that the decline in DIS may be approaching an end. There was one more new low to be made, however. In October 2023 DIS reached its last low at $78.48. All told, DIS declined by 61% from its high in March 2021. It underperformed the SP 500 index during that time as well. Since then, I’ve seen bullish price action in DIS. In November 2023 DIS recaptured the 30-week EMA. More importantly, DIS has stayed above this EMA for the last 12 weeks. Another bullish sign is that the 30-week EMA has flattened out and is now sloping upwards. I like to own stocks that are above an upward sloping 30-week EMA. The last indication of bullish price action is that DIS rallied to $96.20 in November 2023. This too was a lower high, so it was nothing to get excited about. Yet the decline from there was noteworthy. DIS fell to $88.69 a couple of weeks ago. During this decline, DIS stayed above its 30-week EMA. If the price exceeds $96.20 without falling below $88.69 then a trend changed will be confirmed. DIS will then have a higher high and a higher low. The definition of a bullish trend. Right now, I like the price action of DIS. I think it’s bullish.
Volume looks constructive as well. Since August 2023 all the big weekly volume bars, black bars, are on weeks of rising prices. This tells me that institutions or smart money is accumulating shares of DIS. They will only do this if they think that DIS shares are undervalued at current prices. I think volume is bullish.
Momentum is on the side of buyers in DIS. The top pane of Chart 1 shows the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO). This is a simple momentum indicator to understand. The PPO shows momentum in two ways. The most common way of showing bullish momentum is when the black line is above the red line. That is a short-term indication of bullish momentum. You can see that this condition exists now. The second way of showing bullish momentum is when the black line is above the center line or zero level of the chart. Right now, that condition exists. Note that this condition just occurred. The black PPO line was below the center line or zero level from October 2021 to December 2023. That long-term bearish momentum coincided with the long decline in DIS from about $170 to its last low at $78.48. I prefer to own stocks that are showing bullish momentum. Right now, DIS shows both short-term and long-term bullish momentum using PPO.
Relative strength is shown on the bottom pane of Chart 1. Beating the SP 500 index is hard to do, as I have mentioned before. To outperform the major index, you must own stocks that are outperforming the major index. This indicator is useful in this regard and is easy to understand. It is just a ratio of DIS to the SP 500 index. If the back line is rising, that tells you that DIS is outperforming the SP 500 index. Conversely, if the black line is falling, then DIS is underperforming the major index. You can see that DIS underperformed the SP 500 during DIS’s long decline. Now the relative strength indicator has flattened out and shows a slight upward bias. This is the only indicator in Chart 1 that doesn’t show an outright bullish indication currently.
Whenever I buy a stock, I like to have an exit plan in mind to protect my capital. Proper risk management allows me to preserve my capital and ease my mind. One way to preserve your capital is to say that if DIS closes below its 30-week EMA, you will exit the position and then reevaluate the situation. There is no harm in taking that stance. You can always get back into DIS a week or two later.
Another way to protect your capital is to have a stop loss on your position. A rule of thumb that I use is to not take a loss on a stock that is more than 1% of my account equity. In other words, if my account equity is $100,000, 1% of that is $1,000. I do not want to lose more than $1,000 on my position in DIS. So based on the closing price of $95.36 I would look for a price level that would show that my bullish thesis could be incorrect. The recent low as mentioned above is $88.69. If DIS closed below that level, that may be an indication that my bullish thesis is incorrect. So, let’s say we don’t want to own DIS if it closes below $88.00 to give it some cushion. The difference between buying at $95.36 and selling at $88.00 is $7.36. Take the $1,000 figure which represents 1% of the account equity or my maximum amount of money I am willing to lose and divide that amount by $7.36. That tells me how many shares I can buy of DIS, which would be 135 shares. Buying 135 shares of DIS at $95.36 is an investment of $12,873.60. I then put in a stop loss of $88.00. If my stop loss is hit, I end up selling my shares for a total of $11,880.00. That would be a loss on the trade of $993.60 or 7.71%. That’s not the outcome I want, but it’s not insurmountable either. I can make up that loss of 7.71% much easier than a loss of 15%, 25%, or 61% like the decline DIS had from March 2021 to its low in October 2023. I like to keep my losses manageable, so I always use a stoploss like the one described above.
In summary, DIS looks like a buy to me at current prices. It has bullish price action and is above an upward sloping 30-week EMA. Volume shows that smart money has been accumulating shares of DIS. Momentum is bullish in both the short-term and long-term. Relative strength shows a slight bullish indication, but it could be better. Lastly, if you take a position in DIS, I recommend using either a close below the 30-week EMA or a stop loss on your position to limit your exposure in the event my bullish thesis turns out to be incorrect.

Bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/466553 ... l-analysis

[sjos]

Pixelworks jumps on TrueCut Motion tech deal with Disney
Jan. 30, 2024 11:50 AM ETPixelworks, Inc. (PXLW) StockDISBy: Tiyashi Datta, SA News
Pixelworks (NASDAQ:PXLW) shares soared over 40% on Tuesday after the company reached an agreement with Walt Disney (DIS) studios to bring a collection of films that uses TrueCut Motion technology to select home entertainment devices.
TrueCut Motion technology, a registered trademarks of Pixelworks, provides filmmakers with shot-by-shot motion grading tools and eliminates motion playback anomalies, while maintaining the desired brightness levels, the company said.
California-based Pixelworks, which provides video and pixel processing semiconductors and software, was trading at near $2.15 in morning trade on Tuesday. Overall, the stock gained nearly 4% in the last one year.
"TrueCut Motion technology brings a new level of creative reach to our filmmakers like never before," said Rachel Hutter, Head of Operations, Disney Studios.
Bron: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4060169-p ... ith-disney