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Umi
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Re: Facebook

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https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... ssion=true

Interview met Zuck -> Metaverse :think:


& CS verhoogt koersdoel FB naar 480USD; wat de stijging van vandaag verklaart.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3718590-f ... d-recovery


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Doctor Copper
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Re: Facebook

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sjos
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Re: Facebook

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Now for something completely different:

Pinterest: The Business Has Fundamental Challenges
Aug. 18, 2021 11:31 AM ETPinterest, Inc. (PINS)FBSNAPTWTR
Summary
Low engagement destroys an important bull thesis. It is unlikely that Pinterest will ever achieve Average Revenue per User comparable to SNAP or Facebook.
Already before the pandemic, the rate of growth in the number of MAUs had been slowing down.
Even if the company returns to user growth again, the growth rate is likely to be much lower than before the pandemic.
We are neutral on the company.

Investment Thesis
The latest Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) report was the biggest disappointment in the last reporting period for many investors. The market was disappointed with the decline in the number of US MAU in the second quarter of 2021. However, many analysts soon began to play down this fact. SA Authors Rating for the company is 4.45, with no bearish or neutral positions. We are ready to receive a dose of negativity because, in our opinion, the Pinterest business has fundamental problems:

The obvious one is to attract new users to the US market. The results of the 2nd quarter of 2021 are not an anomaly, but a pattern, since the growth rate of new users slowed down before the pandemic.
User engagement rate. Obviously, the engagement rate on Pinterest is noticeably lower than on other social media platforms. This fact destroys the thesis about the huge potential for ARPU growth because the value of 1 active Pinterest user is much lower than the value of 1 user of other social media.
Thus, in our opinion, the company's growth potential is not as great as many believe. We are neutral on Pinterest.

Number And Engagement Of Users
The value of social media lies solely in the users. It is the users and their involvement that ultimately generate revenue for the company. Thus, to attract new advertisers and strengthen relationships with existing advertisers, it is important for Pinterest to a) increase the number of users and b) increase their engagement. This is where we face the fundamental challenges of the company.

Although the decrease in MAU in the second quarter came as a surprise to the market, this is a natural phenomenon. Before the pandemic, we saw a steady decline in the rate of new user growth. At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2019, there was a surge since the management began to localize content in global markets, but after that, the decline in the growth rate continued. We saw that the 2nd quarter results are not an anomaly but a pattern that became pronounced against the background of increasing users in 2020.

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
MAU 239 231 251 265 291 300 322 335 367
Growth, YoY 36.57% 24.86% 23.04% 22.69% 21.76% 29.87% 28.29% 26.42% 26.12
(Source: Created by the author, based on the company's information)

The management says that the churn was mainly in the group who use the application from a computer, and the number of users from mobile phones remains stable. The company also focuses on the sustainability of positions among Gen Z. This is nothing more than an attempt to focus on user engagement. However, user engagement is another Achilles heel of the business. Ask yourself which social network you use most: Pinterest, Snapchat, or Instagram. Morgan Stanley recently surveyed interns. When asked which internet platforms they use the most, only 1% of interns said Pinterest, even though they could choose three platforms. For comparison: 70% noted Instagram, 41% - Snapchat, and Facebook, unpopular among young people, scored 15%.

Obviously, the engagement rate on Pinterest is noticeably lower than on other social media platforms. This is a feature of the social network. Pinterest is not a place of leisure or a marketplace but a source of digital inspiration. This is the fundamental problem of the business.

ARPU Growth Is Limited
Among the authors on Seeking Alpha, you can often find the thesis that the potential for ARPU growth is huge since the Pinterest Average Revenue per User is lower than Snap or Facebook.

Company ARPU
Pinterest (PINS) $1.32
Snapchat (SNAP) $3.35
Twitter (TWTR) $5.78
Facebook (FB) $10.12
(Source: Created by the author)

In our opinion, this thesis is absolutely wrong. Obviously, users who use the platform once a month bring about 30 times less revenue than users who visit the platform daily. We are returning to the level of user engagement again. The greatest value for Pinterest comes from weekly active users. According to the company, the weekly users' share of monthly users was 57 and 56% at the end of 2019 and 2020, respectively. The number of WAU of the company at the end of the last reporting period should have been about 254 million. In comparison, Snap had 293 million daily active users in the last quarter (+ 22.6% YoY). All things being equal, the value of 1 daily active user is 7 times higher than the value of 1 weekly active user and 30 times higher than the value of 1 monthly active user. In our opinion, even considering that PINS advertising is very effective, the company will not be able to achieve an ARPU comparable to that of other industry players.

Conclusion
Despite the company's growth over the past years, Pinterest's business has always had a fundamental problem - relatively low user engagement. Management is trying to offset this fundamental factor with a variety of tools. However, Pinterest is not a marketplace or a standard leisure social network. Pinterest is a source of digital inspiration. This is the model of the company, and rebuilding the model is difficult.

Low engagement destroys an important bull thesis. It is unlikely that Pinterest will ever achieve Average Revenue per User comparable to SNAP or Facebook because the latter calculate ARPU based on the number of Daily users and PINS based on the number of Monthly Active Users, which value is a priori lower.

Whereas the company had previously compensated for its relatively low engagement with increased new users, PINS has now achieved a high degree of penetration into the US market. At the end of the second quarter, it became clear that the company had another fundamental problem - the dynamics of active users. Already before the pandemic, the rate of growth in the number of MAUs had been slowing down. Even if the company returns to user growth again, the growth rate is likely to be much lower than before the pandemic. We are neutral on Pinterest.

bron: https://seekingalpha.com/article/445037 ... challenges
Buy and Hold blijft mijn strategie, tenzij een aandeel 20 percent gestegen is in een periode van enkele weken/maanden na aankoop.

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panamapapers
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Re: Facebook

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Sjos, dit topic gaat over Facebook. Je berichten over Pinterest duiken overal op. Het staat je vrij een topic aan te maken over Pinterest. ;)

sjos
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Re: Facebook

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panamapapers schreef:
21 aug 2021 11:31
Sjos, dit topic gaat over Facebook. Je berichten over Pinterest duiken overal op. Het staat je vrij een topic aan te maken over Pinterest. ;)
Dat heb je goed opgemerkt. Het probleem is dat ik items post om commentaar van anderen op een aandeel te krijgen (peer review). En wat blijkt, als het niet in de main stream thuishoort, kijkt er niemand naar.
Heb je een gedacht hoeveel Amerikanen naar Pinterest kijken ?
Buy and Hold blijft mijn strategie, tenzij een aandeel 20 percent gestegen is in een periode van enkele weken/maanden na aankoop.

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micado
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Re: Facebook

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Het zal weer wat worden - https://www.tijd.be/dossiers/m-v-van-de ... 36389.html (zit ondertussen al achter het slotje)
Toch goed voor een -5% :twisted:
Iemand een idee wat voor invloed dit gaat hebben op FB ?

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micado
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Re: Facebook

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micado schreef:
04 okt 2021 17:36
Het zal weer wat worden - https://www.tijd.be/dossiers/m-v-van-de ... 36389.html (zit ondertussen al achter het slotje)
Toch goed voor een -5% :twisted:
Iemand een idee wat voor invloed dit gaat hebben op FB ?
https://www.hln.be/internet/dit-is-de-e ... ~ad3ae6aa/

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panamapapers
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Re: Facebook

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Heeft daar niet mee te maken denkik. FB en Whatsapp liggen plat door een storing, en alle tech gaat zowat onderuit vandaag (vanwege snel stijgende rente).
Doctor Copper liked last!

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Founder
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Re: Facebook

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Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

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Re: Facebook

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:think:

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered









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