Umicore

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FF2170
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 02:04

Tesla claims Model 3 is about to become the best-selling midsize premium sedan in the US – electric or not

https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-mo ... -sedan-us/

Mid range ICE MB BMW Audi Lexus are getting killed, starting in California then moving out to all large metros across the world.

Meanwhile legacy automakers are holding back on electric volume because they can't make money selling electric, and they can't make money servicing electric. They all hate electric cars (because there is no money to be made and it's a job killer)

Model 3 kills MB BMW Audi.png
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 05:15

A remarkable paragraph regarding cell chemistry from today's Tesla earnings letter 2018 Q1, May 2 2018:

"The Model 3 battery has sophisticated power electronics, cooling systems and structure that enables high level of safety, sports-car like acceleration, Supercharging, a 120,000 mile warranty and low cost. Cells used in Model 3 are the highest energy density cells used in any electric vehicle. We have achieved this by significantly reducing cobalt content per battery pack while increasing nickel content and still maintaining superior thermal stability. The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1. As a result, even with its battery, the gross weight of Model 3 is on par with its gasoline-powered counterparts."

During the conference call, regarding future cell chemistry, Elon Musk said: "I think we can get cobalt to almost nothing".

That is very good news for the entire EV industry! We don't want limited cobalt supply to slow the transition to electric.

What I don't understand is this: Why is the rest of the world all NMC? Why don't at least a few high-end electric cars use NCA? I wonder if Umicore is selling much NCA cathode powders in volume for any EVs. I suspect the answer is no, because we would know which cars by now.

Letter and conference call are here:

http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=188711

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 07:28

So, EM said the cobalt content of their NCA is already lower than what NMC 811 hopes to achieve. Pretty impressive.

cobalt content in cells.png


Screenshot taken from here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018 ... batteries/
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 03 Mei 2018 08:23

I don't believe everything that Elon says...
Besides, I think it's not about getting to the lowest cobalt use, it's about getting the best price/quality!
The cobalt supply chain will grow more mature & Umicore has it's recycling capabilities that will be very important in this case!

btw, it's inappropriate for a CEO to respond in this way ... (get your google translate on :P )
https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto/elo ... 08200.html

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 16:23

News certainly travel fast in today's world.

https://www.ft.com/content/1c154770-4eb ... 318e776bab

So, we know everyone is using NMC (except Tesla with NCA) and no one is even on 811 yet.

We note:
1) NCA may now be cheaper than NMC (I have no evidence, just suspicion)
2) We always understood NCA can output more power so your EV can accelerate faster. That's probably why Tesla stuck with Panasonic all these years.

I wonder what are they all going to do? stay with NMC? or we will see some switch to NCA?

We of course wonder what's Umicore's role with NCA as well.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor charel01 » 03 Mei 2018 16:44

Credit Suisse ziet overwaardering van 20 procent in Umicore


Credit Suisse trekt het koersdoel op van 34 euro tot 39 euro. CS verwacht dat Umicore de winstmarge in de kathode- en kobaltafdelingen een boost kan geven. Desondanks is de bank pessimistisch over het aandeel. Umicore noteert nu aan 47 euro.

CS vindt het aandeel ferm overgewaardeerd. Volgens de huidige koers zou Umicore tot in de eeuwigheid een marktaandeel van 60 procent moeten hebben op de kathodemarkt. Te optimistisch, vindt de bank, zeker gezien de aantrekkende concurrentie.
Bron:"De Tijd"
Go with the flow.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 18:31

charel01 schreef:Credit Suisse ziet overwaardering van 20 procent in Umicore


Credit Suisse trekt het koersdoel op van 34 euro tot 39 euro. CS verwacht dat Umicore de winstmarge in de kathode- en kobaltafdelingen een boost kan geven. Desondanks is de bank pessimistisch over het aandeel. Umicore noteert nu aan 47 euro.

CS vindt het aandeel ferm overgewaardeerd. Volgens de huidige koers zou Umicore tot in de eeuwigheid een marktaandeel van 60 procent moeten hebben op de kathodemarkt. Te optimistisch, vindt de bank, zeker gezien de aantrekkende concurrentie.
Bron:"De Tijd"


I get the feeling Mathew Waugh is asleep at the wheel or perhaps this job does not fit a chemist well?

https://www.trivano.com/aandeel/advies- ... 531.advies

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mathew-hamp ... -78731215/

My estimate of Umicore's cathode powder in tons (t)

2012 9k t
2013 11k t
2014 13k t
2015 15k t
2016 20k t
2017 30k t
2018 55k t
2019 100k t (low end, as guided by management on Feb 9)
2020 135k t
2021 175k t (low end, as guided by management on Feb 9)

We are just getting started here ...

Are we witnessing the beginning of another S-curve? (%-share of electric doubles every 2 years)

Past 4 years: 0.5%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 1.7%

Possible future? 3.4%, 7%, 14%, 28%, 56%

EV % double each 2 years.png
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 03 Mei 2018 19:34

Panasonic reduces Tesla's cobalt consumption by 60% in 6 years, research by Benchmark

"But cobalt supply challenges remain."

"The end for cobalt? Quite simply, no."

http://benchmarkminerals.com/panasonic- ... n-6-years/

Hey, but it's great progress reducing cobalt. And who knows what the future will bring.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor charel01 » 04 Mei 2018 17:26

Zo eens iets anders maar als roker vind ik het wel positief wat ze daar doen:
https://www.hln.be/de-krant/elke-werkda ... ~ae1150d7/
Ik kan er beter ook eens een paar maanden gaan werken. :roll:
Go with the flow.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 06 Mei 2018 20:38

FF2170 schreef:
FF2170 schreef:Hi Everyone,

Umicore will report 2H 2017 financials tomorrow Feb 8. I am looking for them to beat these figures:

E&ST €485m
E&ST margin 15.5%

And status quo for its other businesses (catalyst and recycle).

Although management is not going to talk about it, I suspect RBM is probably about 22-25% of their business currently, and will reach 50% by the end of next year.


E&ST 2H 2017 actual:

E&ST €495m
E&ST margin 15.9% (79m/495m)

Further, they will double capacity again, this time in Europe as well as in China, for total of 12x from 2015 levels (to 175,000 metric tons by 2021).

Look for analysts to build that into their models by tomorrow's conference call.


I had a chance to work on my model this weekend with new guidance we received on April 26.

Umicore will report 1H 2018 financials on July 31, 2018. I am looking for these E&ST figures:

E&ST €670m
E&ST magin 16.5%

And status quo for its other businesses (catalyst and recycle).

Although management is not going to talk about it, I suspect RBM will exit Q4 2018 reaching 50% of total company revenues, just eight months from today.