Umicore

Beleggen in aandelen beurs Brussel, BEL 20, lokale fondsen, etc.
Plaats reactie
FF2170
Forum actieveling
Forum actieveling
Berichten: 362
Lid geworden op: 28 Nov 2017 19:52
waarderingen: 49
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 13 Mar 2018 13:15

Finally a major legacy automaker is getting serious about electric.

VW will produce many excellent electric cars with range of 200 miles (320 km) and longer at reasonable prices. For example, the e-Golf is a fantastic product currently at 125 miles (200 km). (But remember Bolt w/ LG Chem's battery is 238 miles or 383 km, at about the same price point)

Other major automakers too will have to line up their battery supply chains.

Look for Umicore to announce a cathode materials factory in North America later this year or in 2019.

The transition from ICE to electric will be very painful for all legacy automakers. This is because it will be extremely difficult for them to make money selling electric or servicing electric. Electric cars don't need service and they last much longer than ICE cars (e.g. electric motors can run for 1 million miles with no oil change).

On top of this, all automakers will have to sink a huge amount of R&D money into autonomy for years and years. Autonomy will also be a very painful transition for all of them.

And then there is China. The Chinese government is super aggressive in promoting, establishing, the new electric car industry (with battery makers). They see the transition as an opportunity to establish and to win new markets,

Competition is good for the consumer, but there is going to be a lot of disruptions in the next 10-15 years (in jobs, in business, in politics).


FF2170
Forum actieveling
Forum actieveling
Berichten: 362
Lid geworden op: 28 Nov 2017 19:52
waarderingen: 49
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 13 Mar 2018 17:49

WSJ, March 13, 2018

Volkswagen Vows to Overtake Tesla With World’s Largest Electric Car Fleet

https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen ... 1520955348

BERLIN— Volkswagen AG (VLKAY) has pulled into Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) rearview and vowed to overtake the electric car pioneer with a massive rollout of battery and hybrid models over the next five years and production facilities around the world.

The German car maker, which is the largest world-wide with sales of 10.7 million vehicles last year, said Tuesday that it would build at least 16 new electric vehicle plants by 2025, nine of which will be in operation by 2020, in Europe, China and the U.S.

One of the plants will be set up at Volkswagen’s factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., five are planned for China and the remainder will be added to the three sites it already operates in Europe.

Volkswagen aims to sell three million electric vehicles a year by 2025.

By comparison, Tesla sold 102,807 cars last year, mainly its high-end Model S sedan and Model X sport-utility vehicle. Production of the Model 3, the company’s first large-volume family sedan, began last year, but Tesla has struggled to meet production goals. It has taken about 500,000 orders for the Model 3 but is well below its target of building 250,000 cars a year.

On Tuesday, Volkswagen Chief Executive Matthias Müller said that his company, which owns a dozen brands including VW, Audi, Porsche, Skoda, Bentley and Lamborghini would launch a new electric vehicle “virtually every month” from 2019.

“This is how we intend to offer the largest fleet of electric vehicles in the world, across all brands and regions, in just a few years,” he said at Volkswagen’s annual media conference, according to a press release.

Global demand for electric cars is still only a tiny fraction of new car sales and it is far from certain that the huge investments Volkswagen and other car manufacturers are making is going to pay off.

“The absolute numbers are still small,” Mr. Müller told reporters Tuesday. “But that will change at the latest when the first models of the next e-generation come to market.”

The shift to electric comes after Volkswagen pleaded guilty in 2016 to rigging millions of diesel-powered cars to cheat emissions tests and was forced to pay around $25 billion in fines, penalties and compensation.

( wow, $25 billion could have bought two Umicores! )

Now, Volkswagen is back to churning out profits. Its net income more than doubled last year to €11.4 billion ($14.1 billion) and revenue rose 6% to €230.7 billion. Looking ahead to 2018, Volkswagen said it expected revenue to rise by as much as 5% and saw an operating return on sales of between 6.5% and 7.5%, compared with 7.4% last year.

The company has already invested nearly half the €50 billion it has earmarked for batteries as it ramps up electric vehicle production to three million cars a year by 2025.

It has secured battery supply from China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. and South Korea’s Samsung SDI Co. and LG Chem Ltd.

Traditional auto makers’ aggressive push into electric cars is putting pressure on Tesla. While the technology leader is having trouble ramping up production of its Model 3, Volkswagen already has a global network of more than 100 factories and years of experience.

The new electric car plants are expected to be built inside existing factories and will use standard underlying technology to create greater scale and cut costs. It is the same strategy Volkswagen used to create savings in production of its conventional cars.

It began rolling out a standardized technology for its midsize family cars in 2012 that is now used to produce 40% of the company’s vehicles. The technology is shared by the VW brand, Skoda, Seat and some Audi models.

Using this strategy, Volkswagen’s brands are planning to launch 50 new electric models and 30 new hybrids by 2025 and to create electric versions of its entire range of more than 300 models by 2030.

By William Boston at william.boston@wsj.com and
Max Bernhard at Max.Bernhard@dowjones.com

Gebruikersavatar
Umi
Forum veteraan
Forum veteraan
Berichten: 1501
Lid geworden op: 06 Mar 2013 19:06
waarderingen: 546
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 13 Mar 2018 19:54

FF2170 schreef:Look for Umicore to announce a cathode materials factory in North America later this year or in 2019.


Some caution to that, since they lost a court case with BASF & Argonne. It's settled, but we don't know the conditions.
http://www.umicore.com/en/media/press/itccase/

On the other hand, Umicore bought some 3M patents around that timeframe (including USA rights)
http://www.umicore.com/en/media/press/2 ... tents3m-en

FF2170
Forum actieveling
Forum actieveling
Berichten: 362
Lid geworden op: 28 Nov 2017 19:52
waarderingen: 49
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 13 Mar 2018 20:09

On the conference call Grynberg did say they expect to open a RBM factory in North America. I suspect they will announce it in 2019. I am still hoping they could find a way to supply to Tesla & Panasonic in their Gigafactory in Nevada.

So far management have not talked about grid storage too much. In time grid storage could be a bigger business than vehicles, but I don't have a feel for its timing or which battery chemistry/technology is best to use. However, we could simply keep an eye on what Tesla does in this area because they have the best engineers. They could very well go with some sort of NMC for grid storage in future years (as they did with SDI for the recent Australia project).

p.s. today, markets were worried about DT's chaotic behavior at the WH.
Laatst gewijzigd door FF2170 op 13 Mar 2018 20:17, 1 keer totaal gewijzigd.

Gebruikersavatar
Umi
Forum veteraan
Forum veteraan
Berichten: 1501
Lid geworden op: 06 Mar 2013 19:06
waarderingen: 546
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 13 Mar 2018 20:16

FF2170 schreef:Volkswagen aims to sell three million electric vehicles a year by 2025.


:o
That's almost 30% of total EV sales in Morgan Stanley's 'base case' :lol:
Volkswagen group has +-11% global market share...

FF2170
Forum actieveling
Forum actieveling
Berichten: 362
Lid geworden op: 28 Nov 2017 19:52
waarderingen: 49
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 13 Mar 2018 20:21

I generally I ignore all analyst projections when it comes to EVs. I don't even view or read them. IMO we can project better than they can. Just follow the facts, such as the chart of EV growth worldwide posted a few days ago. And listen to what management tells us (because they see what's going on on the ground in China and Korea).

Wait until cells reach $100-115 per kWh, then things will get really wild. I suspect in 3 to 4 years. Management have enough to do for now, to spend the €1120 announced.

I am not saying analysts are not smart. They generally are very smart people. But their projections are not any better than what we can do if we follow the facts.
Laatst gewijzigd door FF2170 op 13 Mar 2018 20:30, 1 keer totaal gewijzigd.

Gebruikersavatar
Umi
Forum veteraan
Forum veteraan
Berichten: 1501
Lid geworden op: 06 Mar 2013 19:06
waarderingen: 546
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 13 Mar 2018 20:27

FF2170 schreef:On the conference call Grynberg did say they expect to open a RBM factory in North America. I suspect they will announce it in 2019. I am still hoping they could find a way to supply to Tesla & Panasonic in their Gigafactory in Nevada.

So far management have not talked about grid storage too much. In time grid storage could be a bigger business than vehicles, but I don't have a feel for its timing or which battery chemistry/technology is best to use. However, we could simply keep an eye on what Tesla does in this area because they have the best engineers. They could very well go with some sort of NMC for grid storage in future years (as they did with SDI for the recent Australia project).

p.s. today, markets are worried about DT's chaotic behavior at the WH.


ah true, can't remember a thing of that conference call :lol:
Who knows Tesla might wanna offer more battery options on their cars in the future (NMC or NCA). Just like you can choose between gasoline or diesel...

For grid storage we probably gonna see some different technologies being used in the future. Vanadium redox will probably be interesting in that context. For grid storage weight & energy density is less important.
Before you say Tesla has te best engineers... Leclanché is interesting story in that business 2. At the moment they're still burning money (just like Tesla :D )

http://www.leclanche.com/investor-relat ... formation/

Gebruikersavatar
Umi
Forum veteraan
Forum veteraan
Berichten: 1501
Lid geworden op: 06 Mar 2013 19:06
waarderingen: 546
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 13 Mar 2018 20:34

FF2170 schreef:I generally I ignore all analyst projections when it comes to EVs. I don't even view or read them. IMO we can project better than they can. Just follow the facts, such as the chart of EV growth worldwide posted a few days ago. And listen to what management tells us (because they see what's going on on the ground in China and Korea).

Wait until cells reach $100-115 per kWh, then things will get really wild. I suspect in 3 to 4 years. Management have enough to do for now, to spend the €1120 announced.


I do read em, but I draw my own conclusion from them. But to me they are very important (to calculate my bear case for instance), latetely lithium stocks dropped because of Morgan Stanley's report. Since I have a 'big stake' in AMG (low cost lithium producer in a few months), that did hurt my port.
I rather believe larger Lithium corp's (SQM, Albemarle) & Umicore of course for projections. They stand closer to the end market than Analysts.

FF2170
Forum actieveling
Forum actieveling
Berichten: 362
Lid geworden op: 28 Nov 2017 19:52
waarderingen: 49
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 13 Mar 2018 20:34


Gebruikersavatar
Umi
Forum veteraan
Forum veteraan
Berichten: 1501
Lid geworden op: 06 Mar 2013 19:06
waarderingen: 546
Contact:

Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 13 Mar 2018 20:36

FF2170 schreef:Feb 9th CC transcript is here:

http://www.umicore.com/en/investors/fin ... fyr2017en/


I still have a tab opened to listen (or read) to it for a second time (always do that with my biggest stakes, keeps it fresh in the memory)