Umicore

Beleggen in aandelen beurs Brussel, BEL 20, lokale fondsen, etc.
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FF2170
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 08 Mar 2018 22:23

NMC patent activities

source: http://www.knowmade.com/e-mobility-new- ... batteries/

NMC patent activities.png
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 09 Mar 2018 13:21

CNBC interview: GM CEO Mary Barra: We See An All Electric Future

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scek4oBwZMI

No ICE CEO talked like this 18 months ago, but now: "we see an all electric future"

LG Chem's achievement with the Bolt at 238 miles (383 km) of range, in late 2016, was pretty remarkable. As a result, going forward, no EVs will be competitive unless they have more than 200 miles (320 km) of range.

GM Chevy Bolt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt

Elon Musk has explained the Bolt is still a "compliance" car (an EV sold to satisfy a company's overall emission compliance in certain states) because GM had no plans for high volume battery productions. Until they get serious about battery volume they are not serious.

But I think now all automakers understand the Chinese government is serious about electric cars so they will comply (China is the biggest car market, approaching 30M units annually). Look to automaker's battery production plans to see if they are serious about electric (i.e. through their suppliers such as LG Chem, SDI, Panasonic, etc)
Umi liked last!

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Mar 2018 02:15

"While the average cost of an anode is 30% of a battery [cell], graphite is 50% of the anode cost equating to 15% of the cost of a cell. Meanwhile, the average cost of the cathode is 40% [of the cell] with lithium being 50% of the cathode cost, equating to 20% of the cost of a cell"

http://benchmarkminerals.com/elon-musk- ... -graphite/

p.s. I have seen other data showing cathode is about 32%, anode about 16%, of the material cost of a cell.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Mar 2018 12:47

A possible future:

http://loupventures.com/teslas-multiple ... portunity/

But I doubt it's 2023 as imagined in the article, maybe 2028?

If self-driving (a.k.a. Level 5 autonomy) really becomes a reality, which I am not convinced, total annual auto sales will decline?

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Mar 2018 13:09

FT.com
by Henry Sanderson MARCH 8, 2018

Congo’s mining code will raise costs for cobalt consumers

https://www.ft.com/content/05a623e2-22b ... 8958b189ea

A new mining code in the resource-rich Democratic Republic of Congo is likely to lead to higher costs for consumers of battery metal cobalt just as carmakers are ramping up production of electric cars, analysts said.

President Joseph Kabila said late on Wednesday he would sign the code into law “shortly” after a meeting with the chief executives of the largest mining companies in the country, including Glencore, China Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines, who had lobbied against it.

The code will impose higher royalties on cobalt, a key material for electric car batteries, as well as copper and gold. Royalties on cobalt could rise to 10 per cent if it is determined as “strategic” by the Kabila government, up from 2 per cent currently.

“Given the tight nature of the cobalt market at present, we would expect miners to attempt to pass through higher royalty costs to consumers,” Colin Hamilton, an analyst at BMO, said.

Cobalt prices have more than doubled over the past year, due to rising demand for electric cars, which use the metal in their rechargeable batteries. Over 60 per cent of the world’s cobalt comes from the DRC.

Sales of electric cars rose by 57 per cent in 2017 to more than 1.2m, according to Frost & Sullivan. China accounted for over half of global EV sales.

Analysts at Numis said the new code could impact cobalt production in the DRC, which would lead to even higher prices of cobalt.

“The increase in royalties will ultimately see less investment in the country which could help the cobalt price in the long term as less projects are developed,” Matthew Hasson, an analyst at Numis, said.

Shares in Glencore, the largest producer of cobalt in the world, were off by 0.6 per cent in morning trading in London to 365p. The Switzerland-based company plans to more than triple cobalt production from its Katanga mine to 34,000 tonnes in 2019.

Shares in China Molybdenum, which bought the Tenke copper and cobalt mine in the DRC for $2.65bn in 2015, fell by 4 per cent on the Shanghai Stock Exchange to trade at RMB 8.38.

Randgold, which mines gold in the DRC, fell by 1.2 per cent to trade at 5,908p.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Mar 2018 13:25

FT.com
Henry Sanderson
henry.sanderson@ft.com
FEBRUARY 21, 2018

Today a visitor to the mineral rich Democratic Republic of Congo is more likely to bump into a procurement manager from BMW, Volkswagen or Tesla than an aid worker or travelling diplomat.

Such has been the rush of visitors from the big car companies and smartphone makers that one local governor is demanding information about every visitor to the region’s mines, the economic engine of the central African country.

The DRC is home to more than half of the world’s supplies of cobalt, a silvery-grey metal that is used in almost all lithium-ion batteries. The country produced about 80,790 tonnes of the metal last year, according to Darton Commodities, out of a total market of about 119,710 tonnes.

Prices for cobalt have tripled over the past two years due to growing demand for electric cars. That’s alarmed big users of the metal, who are now scrambling to lock-up long-term supplies.

VW alerted its rivals to the problem when it went to the market last September with a tender for five years’ supply of cobalt. Hot on its tailgate, BMW said this month it was about to sign a long-term supply deal for the metal. Now electronics group Apple is also reportedly looking for a deal, according to Bloomberg.

But why would a miner strike such deals in a rising market? Ivan Glasenberg, the deal-hungry boss of miner Glencore, which is the world’s biggest cobalt producer, said on Wednesday he had not signed any long-term deals and would never sign one at a fixed price.

Electric car demand for cobalt has to compete with existing demand for the metal for superalloys used in the aerospace industry. With everyone scrambling for supply, miners have the upper hand.

A more likely scenario is one of miners entering into shorter-term deals that are referenced to the Metal Bulletin cobalt price, with a price cap and a price floor. While miners won’t want to give away any upside, they will also be willing to meet halfway. Sky-high prices will only encourage car companies to engineer the metal out of their batteries or invest in recycling. Unlike oil, cobalt is not consumed when used in electric cars — making the long-term future an uncertain bet.

https://www.ft.com/content/47950630-172 ... 6390addb44

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Mar 2018 15:49

Umi schreef:
FF2170 schreef:2020 est. of cathode market share pie chart by Adam Collins of Liberum

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -top-table

Cathode market pie chart by Liberum.png

Since Sumitomo is producing NCA. Umicore will have a 43% (30/70) share on the NMC market in 2020 .

When one is too dominant, one becomes a target (of customers, of competitors, of governments). NEV is very strategic for the Chinese, they may not like or allow this in the long run. We will see.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 11 Mar 2018 03:02

Very good article by Laurentian Research at SA of the entire supply side of cobalt:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/411173 ... n-part-iii

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 11 Mar 2018 16:14

The city of Shenzhen, population 12 million, electric buses and taxis

https://evobsession.com/shenzhen-comple ... ric-buses/

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 11 Mar 2018 16:19

China shutout Korean and Japanese battery makers.

Electric buses use same amount of battery capacities as electric cars in China.

https://evobsession.com/chinese-2017-to ... ric-buses/