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Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 10 Feb 2018 20:35
door Umi
Warrant schreef:
Umi schreef: ... yptr=yahoo

Anyone can access this WSJ article and copy here?

Uw browser in 'private'/'incognito' zetten, google open & dan zoeken op beyond-tesla-how-else-to-buy-into-electric-cars-
Werkt bij de meeste betaalsites (helaas niet altijd), soms is het voldoende de link in private te openen.

edit; net nog eens geprobeerd & het lukt niet meer. Gisteren lukte het nochtans :?

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 10 Feb 2018 21:45
door Umi
FF2170 schreef:
I think this is IMPORTANT for those of you following Umicore closely.

I just noticed this page at Umicore's IR page, where it shows analyst's segment estimates for Catalyst, E&ST, and Recycle: ... d=888&id=1

There were 19 analysts, and for E&ST their revenue estimate for H2 were:

Highest: €475m
Consensus: €394m
Median: €393m
Lowest: €338m

Now, notice my estimate of €485m posted here before the print, and actual of €495m reported.

Further, if consensus and median were clustered around 393-394 with lowest at 338, it tells us the highest of 475 was an outlier. This means most of them were 25% off (€100m off).

Isn't that interesting!

What does this tell us about where the sell-side is at, where investors are at, and the likely future of this stock?

I've seen the same, but I think the EBIT is even more interesting...
if you look @ the 'recurrent' EBIT level in H2. 79M
consensus of 61,7M
max of 74,5M.

Results were 28% higher than the average! & the median was even lower... So all those analists with a sell on Umicore should quickly adapt their price targets...

Also if you read the frame of mind behind KBC's price target. They base the target on the lower limit of Umicore's 2020 outlook of 675M to 725M. Umicore is usually conservative in there estimates (not sure now because of the capital increase). In their previous estimates, KBC expected an EBIT of 570M in 2020 :lol:
So there's still an nice upside to their price target.
I expect price targets of 40(conservative/non believers) to 60euro's.
CS, BOFA, will have to to raise em that's for sure! & What about Morgan Stanley's PT of 22 euro's :lol:

ps remember that the CFO told a while ago that the real acceleration would be after 2025...

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 10 Feb 2018 21:48
door Umi
Nephus schreef:
Gaan ook op de nieuwe dividend uit keren. De staat knikt goedkeurend. :roll:

die 5M extra zal het niet maken denk ik...

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 00:58
door FF2170
No one can come up with a good EBIT number unless first a good RBM number is used.

The exact analogy is this: when one builds a house, he can't put on the roof until the foundation and the house is first framed.

If an analyst can't get RBM right (above, the majority of them) he is not going to get EBIT right. If somehow he did, it was pure luck.

The tail is about to wag the dog. Observe the tail. The body of the dog is no longer of interest to us (unless the body gets sick).

If you like math, here are the three equations

Body = Umicore - RBM

Dog = Body + Tail

Tail = RBM

It's a new dog now, and I suggest we name him Sprinter.

Sprinter is our new dog.

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 12:05
door Umi
FF2170 schreef:No one can come up with a good EBIT number unless first a good RBM number is used.

The body of the dog is no longer of interest to us (unless the body gets sick).

True, but the same accounts for RBM revenues off course.

I do think the body is still of great importance. The higher the cashflows from recycling & Catalysis the more they can invest in RBM. Now thanks to the capital increase that is somehow less of an issue. But still a company will be appreciated on its total cashflows...
Catalysis & recycling will both grow faster than last year. That's still 70% of the EBIT today, an next year still accounts for +60%
Catalysis has strong growth in front of it in India, China & rest of Asia as these regions are implementing higher value platforms (same for RoW off course, but less volume increases) which bring a lot more value to the company than most people think. But also this segment needs a fair share of CapEx!
Recycling will get a further ramp up of its 40% capacity expansion & a new boost when 'recycling of LiB's' becomes hot. (+-2025)
Apart from that Recycling is the future of mining...

about the capital increase;
EBITDA will be over 1B in 2020, I don't see them cross 2x Net Debt/Ebitda. So they can load up tot 2B of debt onto the balance sheet. Which will be very needed to keep expanding aggressively.
Apart from CapEx, working capital needs will rise a lot, so I think the capital increase was well thought out!!

The CapEx will keep on rising with every capacity expansion...
april 2016 => 180M
may 2017 => 300M
feb 2018 => 660M

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 13:04
door FF2170
All good points Umi. I agree with you.

I will work on my new model next week or two, to incorporate the update just provided.

For now, we note 2017 REBIT was 398m ex/ discontinued operations, up 24% y/y

The way things are going, it's entirely possible Umicore will be able to deliver REBIT growth rate of 30% for the next few years (or more?). Something like:

if we assume REBIT growing at 30%:
2017A 398m (REBIT ex/ discontinued)
2018E 517
2019E 672
2020E 874
2021E 1136

With this kind of numbers and story, growth investors will pay forward 30 PE. If this stock was listed in NY Americans will pay 40 PE.

This is just the start of the Tsunami (EV and grid storage). The TAM is pretty amazing to think about. But as for Umicore, we don't need to think out too far because who knows how chemistry, or some other storage technology, will evolve. Technology wise, for now we just keep a close eye on NMC and NCA related developments (the tail I referred to). Toyota making noises with their solid state batteries, but for now I don't believe any of it till we see real prototypes, so far we have seen none. Nonetheless, this is tech investing and with that change is a certainty.

BTW, don't know if you know this, to keep up with Tesla and battery news, Fred Lambert does the best job at Electrek. You can get on his e-mail list here (there is so much news he does daily updates):

P.S. It is really strange it's just you and me here. If this stock was listed in NY there would be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of retail investors chatting about it on SA. I have been talking to myself on SA since Oct.

P.P.S. I changed my mind about Sprinter. He is a horse, not a dog. You watch the body and let me know if it's sick. I will watch the tail. Together we will ride Sprinter as he begins to run. And when he is about to trip we jump off.

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 17:54
door FF2170
CEO Grynberg spoke with after Feb 9 2018 earnings release ... en/9981235

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 18:12
door Stephan
Blijkbaar is dit hier een forum in het Engels geworden ? :?

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 18:29
door FF2170
Stephan schreef:Blijkbaar is dit hier een forum in het Engels geworden ? :?

Hi, Sorry about that. I don't speak Dutch. Hope you don't mind. I use Google translate to read Dutch to keep up with Umicore.

Re: Umicore

Geplaatst: 11 Feb 2018 19:25
door Warrant
Stephan schreef:Blijkbaar is dit hier een forum in het Engels geworden ? :?

Meegaan met de tijd hé ;)

@FF: I don't mind. I spent most of my investment related time on Seeking Alpha anyways. Better some insightful posts in English here than meaningless posts in Dutch.