Umicore

Beleggen in aandelen beurs Brussel, BEL 20, lokale fondsen, etc.
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Umi
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 08 Jan 2018 20:11

& a few more, (could only post 8 links in 1 post :lol: )
http://www.bacanoraminerals.com/pdfs/Be ... eb2016.pdf

you can also run some articles trough google translate ;)
http://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-en ... 20/9918747

on this page you can find a picture of bernstein's (older) research. (DCF valuation is based on 112M shares instead of 224M)
http://beursig.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... &start=990

& a 'very old' report from an independent researcher
http://www.valuescan.be/sites/default/f ... ueScan.pdf

& an even older report from Berenberg (they were wrong^2)
https://www.berenberg.de/fileadmin/user ... micals.pdf


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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 08 Jan 2018 21:40

Thank you for those links.

See following link, especially the comments, since Oct 2017, following the article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/385818 ... -dividends

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 08 Jan 2018 23:58

FF2170 schreef:Thank you for those links.

See following link, especially the comments, since Oct 2017, following the article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/385818 ... -dividends


I can't read that, you have to be a 'pro' member...

btw, what are you're expectations?
I expect an EBIT of € 800M to € 1B for E&ST (mostly RBM by then) alone in 2025 & + +- € 500M for the other activities.
So the share price can double again before 2025 from today's level.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 09 Jan 2018 01:36

You do not have to be a pro member. Just sign up at Seeking Alpha as a regular FREE member and you will be able to read that link.

I will be back with my estimates.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 09 Jan 2018 02:19

For me 2025 is too far out to guess in this rapidly changing environment. IMO we just have to keep in mind the total addressable market (TAM) pretty much has no limit given current penetrations (of electric cars and grid storage). The transition from ICE to EVs will take several decades.

For 2017, management guided for REBIT of 355m to 385m. I think they could report 400 to 410m on Feb 9.

With current 6x expansion we know batteries will be 50% of its revenues by the end of next year, just 24 months from now.

However, I think battery revenues will be higher than that because, based on recent interviews of CEO and Chairman, I expect them to make another capacity expansion announcement this spring (this time in Europe as well as in Korea and China).

E&ST for the past 2.5 years were: 298, 289, 288, 322, 398

I am looking for 460m with margins of 15%-16% for 2H 2017 when they report on Feb 9

If the share price only doubles from now to 2025 I would be greatly disappointed.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 09 Jan 2018 05:22

I just noticed this link at Umicore:
http://www.vara-services.de/app/csv?vie ... ent_id=888

a link provided on the bottom of this page:
http://www.umicore.com/en/investors/sha ... consensus/

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 10 Jan 2018 01:57

FF2170 schreef:You do not have to be a pro member. Just sign up at Seeking Alpha as a regular FREE member and you will be able to read that link.

I will be back with my estimates.


I'm signed up years ago... Maybe you need a pro overhere, cause it's a belgian stock? (discrimination!)

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 10 Jan 2018 01:58

FF2170 schreef:I just noticed this link at Umicore:
http://www.vara-services.de/app/csv?vie ... ent_id=888

a link provided on the bottom of this page:
http://www.umicore.com/en/investors/sha ... consensus/


Thx, thats very usefull, didnt notice that myself :oops:

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 10 Jan 2018 02:09

FF2170 schreef:For me 2025 is too far out to guess in this rapidly changing environment. IMO we just have to keep in mind the total addressable market (TAM) pretty much has no limit given current penetrations (of electric cars and grid storage). The transition from ICE to EVs will take several decades.

For 2017, management guided for REBIT of 355m to 385m. I think they could report 400 to 410m on Feb 9.

With current 6x expansion we know batteries will be 50% of its revenues by the end of next year, just 24 months from now.

However, I think battery revenues will be higher than that because, based on recent interviews of CEO and Chairman, I expect them to make another capacity expansion announcement this spring (this time in Europe as well as in Korea and China).

E&ST for the past 2.5 years were: 298, 289, 288, 322, 398

I am looking for 460m with margins of 15%-16% for 2H 2017 when they report on Feb 9

If the share price only doubles from now to 2025 I would be greatly disappointed.


It is indeed far out. But I try to estimate what is a possibility in the future(that was a conservative estimate btw)
Capacity expansion is indeed possible. CEO recently said in an interview that it's a possibility that they will raise capital for future expansions.

Deutsche bank estimates EBIT of 404M.

Deutsche Bank becijfert dat de afdeling 'Energy & Surface Technologies', jarenlang het kleine broertje bij Umicore, dankzij de batterijmaterialen de winstbijdrage over 2017 met 53 procent kon opkrikken tot 125 miljoen euro. Daarmee zou de bedrijfstak in de buurt komen van de klassieke grote twee: bij katalysatoren zou de winstbijdrage 4 procent stijgen tot 159 miljoen, bij recyclage voorspelt analist Tim Jones een groei van 10 procent tot 138 miljoen.
Globaal mikt de Deutsche Bank-analist op een 15 procent hogere bedrijfswinst van 404 miljoen euro of 1,80 euro per aandeel. Ook voor 2018 rekent Jones op een gelijkaardige groei. Toch blijft hij bij een 'houden'-advies en koersdoel van 39 euro. 'Na de scherpe koersstijging van het voorbije jaar is het aandeel tegen 28 keer de verwachte nettowinst voor 2018 geen koopje meer', klinkt het omfloerst.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 10 Jan 2018 02:56

I am very certain you can sign up at Seeking Alpha for FREE.

There are 3 tabs on top (PRO, Marketplace, SeekingAlpha). Click on the right one, Seeking Alpha. NOT the PRO tab.

Then at the top right corner, click on "Sign in / Join Now"

Then in the pop-up window, on the left side, click on Join as new member for FREE.

Give it a try again.

Click here: https://seekingalpha.com/