Bayer

[And its gone!]

BREAKINGVIEWS-Bayer has 29 bln reasons to say bye-bye to CEO
13:35 (29-03) - Bron: Reuters
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)
By Ed Cropley
LONDON, March 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Werner Baumann’s
days at the helm of Bayer are numbered. Under his
watch, the 61 billion euro pharmaceuticals-to-agrochemicals
group has handed shareholders a total return of minus 25%,
mainly due to the toxic side-effects of Baumann’s $62.5 billion
acquisition of Monsanto in 2018. It’s time for a strategic
rethink.
Investors, who will decide whether to keep Baumann in his
role at a shareholder meeting in April, could have lost patience
years ago. Having overpaid for Monsanto, Bayer lost more than 30
billion euros of market value in 2019 due to lawsuits from
thousands of Americans who said that the U.S. firm’s Roundup
weedkiller gave them cancer. A partial settlement in 2020 for a
relatively modest $10 billion should thus have been a source of
relief. Yet Bayer’s market value remains 32 billion euros below
its pre-cancer litigation levels.
That points to deeper problems. Bayer’s Crop Science
division, which makes seeds and pesticides, is likely to grow
its top line 9% over the next three years, according to
Refinitiv forecasts, helped by rising wheat prices due to the
war in Ukraine. But that’s weedier than U.S. rival Corteva
, which is looking at 15% growth. And the group’s
pharmaceutical division is facing the loss of up to 40% of its
sales from expiring drug patents in coming years. Revenue growth
is set to decline from 5% this year to less than 2% in 2025,
according to Refinitiv forecasts.
The poor performance – in the last four years, Bayer shares
have lagged Germany’s DAX benchmark by
45% – suggests minimal merit in keeping pharma and farming in
the same barn. And the financial logic of a breakup looks
compelling. The drug unit might be worth 62 billion euros on a
10 times 2022 EBITDA multiple, a discount to the sector due to
its weak pipeline. On an 11 times multiple – a slight discount
to Corteva – the crop sciences division could be valued at 63
billion euros. Add in 13 billion euros for its Reckitt-like
consumer healthcare unit, and Bayer’s enterprise
value would be 138 billion euros. Take off 39 billion euros of
net debt and pension liabilities, and 9 billion euros to settle
Roundup claims, and its equity could be worth 90 billion
euros, 29 billion euros more than its current value.
Baumann argues that keeping crop protection and drugs
together will ensure Bayer’s business remains vital. The
pandemic and war in Ukraine have arguably reinforced that point.
Yet a breakup would create value, and give Bayer’s individual
bits more focus. As the principal architect of the Monsanto
deal, Baumann is hardly the right person to lead it. Waiting
four years for a mega-merger to bear fruit is long enough. Bayer
needs to start ploughing separate furrows.
Follow @edwardcropley https://twitter.com/edwardcropley on
Twitter

CONTEXT NEWS
- Singapore state investor Temasek is pushing for the
removal of Bayer Chief Executive Werner Baumann, Bloomberg
reported on March 26.
- Citing unnamed sources, the news agency said that Temasek
had “long-standing concerns” about the operating performance of
the German pharmaceutical and agrochemicals group, in which it
held a 4% stake around the time the Monsanto deal closed in
2018.
- Temasek was also concerned about a lack of
succession-planning at the company, Bloomberg said. Temasek and
Bayer declined to comment. Bayer’s next annual general meeting
is on April 29.
- Bayer shares rose as much as 3.5% on March 28 before
falling back to be up 0.8% by 1400 GMT, against a 1.2% gain for
Germany’s benchmark DAX index.

[NewB76]

adviezen vandaag
UBS buy doel 90 euro
Barclays buy doel 85 euro

[NewB76]

JP Morgan buy en als doel 75 euro

[NewB76]

Verder gunstig nieuws voor zijn nieuwe molecule Finerenone ( Kerendia , reeds toegelaten in US , EU en Japan )op Amerikaans cardiologen-congres.
https://media.bayer.com/baynews/baynews ... 1649089358

[And its gone!]

een definitieve schikking nodig voor de resterende round-up rechtzaken, en dan kunnen we richting 100€.

[And its gone!]

Pijnlijke koersverloop vandaag Bayer (-9% momenteel)
Biden administration wil blijkbaar Bayer laten bloeden.

Baumann had al 15 miljard opzij gezet, de koersreactie is buitensporig.

[NewB76]

Berlin, June 3, 2022, – Bayer will present new renal and cardiovascular data from the comprehensive Kerendia™ (finerenone) clinical trial program at the 2022 American Diabetes Association (ADA) 82nd Scientific Sessions. This new data will comprise of further insights from FIDELITY, including late-breaking data from a new post-hoc analysis, as well as retrospective findings from FIDELIO-DKD and FIGARO-DKD. The prespecified pooled analysis FIDELITY, including the Phase III studies FIDELIO-DKD and FIGARO-DKD, comprises the largest Phase III cardiorenal outcomes clinical trial program investigating cardiorenal outcomes in more than 13,000 patients with CKD and T2D.

Kerendia FIDELITY study data:

Data from a new post-hoc analysis from FIDELITY will investigate the effect of finerenone by baseline HbA1c categories, HbA1c variability, and diabetes duration in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Despite well-controlled blood glucose levels and blood pressure, many patients with CKD and diabetes still progress to loss of kidney function. New strategies are needed to prevent further end-organ damage and slow patient’s rate of decline in kidney function.

· Effects of Finerenone in Patients with CKD and T2D Are Independent of HbA1c at Baseline, HbA1c Variability, and Duration of Diabetes
o 16-LB – Late Breaking Poster Session
o June 5, 2022; 12:00 – 1:00pm (CT) / 7:00 – 8:00pm (CEST)
In addition, a new subgroup analysis of FIDELITY will be presented, evaluating the effects of finerenone on kidney and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes by use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) at baseline. This analysis encompasses a larger population including patients with earlier stages of CKD than was included in the previously presented subgroup analysis by GLP-1RA use from the FIDELIO-DKD trial.

· Finerenone in Patients across the Spectrum of CKD and T2D by GLP-1RA Use
o 22-OR – Oral Presentation
o June 3, 2022; 5:30 – 5:45pm (CT) / June 4, 2022; 12:30 – 12:45am (CEST)

[NewB76]

Uit Marketscreener
Bayer heeft vandaag een beslissing van een arbitragehof verwelkomd om een claim van BASF af te wijzen, dat het te veel heeft betaald voor activa die Bayer heeft verkocht om antitrustgoedkeuring te krijgen voor de overname van Monsanto.
"Bayer heeft adequate informatie verstrekt over de kostenstructuur van de door BASF in augustus 2018 overgenomen zaadactiviteiten en heeft geen contractuele verplichtingen geschonden. Dit is nu ook bevestigd door het scheidsgerecht," aldus Bayer.

BASF daagde Bayer in 2019 voor een arbitragehof, met als argument dat Bayer de personeelskosten niet volledig had bekendgemaakt toen het onderhandelde over de verkoop van twee activabundels.

[NewB76]

Meer omzet en resultaat in derde kwartaal.
(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Bayer heeft de in augustus van dit jaar verhoogde outlook gehandhaafd en boekte in het derde kwartaal meer omzet en resultaat. Dit bleek dinsdag uit cijfers van de Duitse farmareus.

De omzet over de verslagperiode steeg, gecorrigeerd voor wisselkoerseffecten, met 5,7 procent naar 11,3 miljard euro.

Het operationeel resultaat (EBITDA) voor bijzondere posten steeg met 17,3 procent tot 2,5 miljard euro. De bijbehorende marge lag op 21,7 procent.

De kernwinst per aandeel kwam 7,6 procent hoger uit op 1,13 euro bij een nettowinst van 546 miljoen euro, inclusief niet-voortgezette activiteiten. Een jaar eerder bedroeg de winst 85 miljoen euro.

De vrije kasstroom nam met 11,1 procent af tot 1,74 miljard euro.

Outlook

Het bedrijf uit Leverkusen verwacht voor 2022 nog altijd een omzet van 47 tot 48 miljard euro. In augustus werd de outlook verhoogd. Eerder werd namelijk nog gemikt op een omzet van circa 46 miljard euro.

De EBITDA-marge komt volgens de onderneming uit op 26 tot 27 procent bij een EBITDA van circa 12,5 miljard euro. Voorafgaand aan de outlookverhoging in augustus werd nog gemikt op een marge van circa 26 procent.

Voor de vrije kasstroom voorziet Bayer een "significante" stijging naar 2,5 miljard euro.

De kernwinst per aandeel komt naar verwachting uit op 7,30 euro.

[NewB76]

Adviezen
JP Morgan neutraal doel 60 euro
Barclays buy doel 80 euro
Verlaat Bayer vandaag tweede bodem ?