Deutsche Bank

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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door piddybull » 06 sep 2019 17:53

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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door And its gone! » 09 sep 2019 19:25

Deutsche's overhaul is hitting investment bank revenue less than expected - CFO
19:00 (09/09) - Bron: Reuters

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The negative impact of Deutsche Bank's <DBKGn.DE> overhaul on investment banking revenue has so far been less than the German lender had anticipated, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said on Monday.

Von Moltke said that he was "quite encouraged" because pressure on revenue was "less than we had modelled and expected", adding that revenue in the bank's more stable business areas has continued to grow in the third quarter.

(Reporting by Tom Sims; Editing by Douglas Busvine)
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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door And its gone! » 13 sep 2019 20:05

BUZZ-Deutsche Bank gets a lift from ECB's tiered deposit rate, touches 5-month high
19:54 (13/09) - Bron: Reuters
** U.S.-traded shares of Germany's Deutsche Bank AG DB.N
DBKGn.DE up 3.2% at $7.7, hitting a near 5-month high
** Deutsche Bank will benefit the most from the European
Central Bank's new tiered deposit rate, according to JP Morgan
analysts, a Bloomberg report said (https://bloom.bg/2kgryW2)
** The ECB on Thursday eased the terms of its long-term
loans to banks and introduced a tiered deposit rate to help
banks
** Euro zone banks will be exempted from paying the ECB a
penalty charge on idle cash worth six times their mandatory
reserves
** Germany's largest lender stands to save roughly 200
million euros ($222 million) in annual interest payments, the
report said
** The stock has nearly lost 55% of its value since the
beginning of 2018, reflecting ongoing struggles at the bank,
including losses in three of the past four years. The bank
expects to register a loss for 2019 as well
** In July, the bank announced a restructuring plan, which
includes cutting 18,000 jobs and scrapping its global equities
business
** The index of the euro zone's big banks has fallen
~36% since January 2018

(Reporting by Bharath Manjesh in Bengaluru)
((Bharath.ManjeshR@thomsonreuters.com; outside U.S. +91 80
6749 8400;))
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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door wolfe » 17 sep 2019 22:21

Goed SA artikel (even de tijd nemen en in Engels)

Persoonlijke 'key take away' hier: quote: "This means that downside seems limited right now and upside can be significant if the bank executes well its new strategy. However, this will take time, and Deutsche Bank can be a good deep value play for long-term investors" unquote


Summary
Deutsche Bank's new strategy seems to be credible and should lead to a more sustainable bank in the long term.

Significant restructuring charges will affect earnings in 2019 and 2020, thus a re-rating based on improving profitability is not expected during this period.

Nevertheless, its depressed valuation makes downside quite limited, and Deutsche Bank is a deep value play right now for long-term investors.

As I've discussed previously, Deutsche Bank (DB) has fixed many of its issues in the recent past, but its business strategy needed to change for the bank to be profitable in a sustainable way. The bank's management acknowledged this reality and has recently revealed a new strategy, aiming to change Deutsche Bank's business profile in the next few years.

If executed well, the bank can improve a lot its profitability, and its current depressed valuation makes downside limited, while upside can be significant if the bank reaches its financial targets in the coming years.

Strategy
Deutsche Bank has been one of the global banks most affected by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the overcapacity in the investment banking industry worldwide. Moreover, due to past misconduct, Deutsche Bank's earnings were negatively impacted for several years from high litigation costs, leading to negative earnings in some years or very low levels of profitability in others.

Deutsche Bank has resolved most of its litigation cases until 2017 and performed a capital increase to regain investor and customer confidence, but its financial performance continued to be quite poor compared to most of its peers.

Therefore, a couple of months ago, the bank announced a new group strategy focused on fixing the bank's woes in the next 3-5 years. The main goal is to improve the bank's profitability, measured by its return on equity ratio (ROE), a performance indicator that has been below its cost of capital since 2009, which means that Deutsche Bank has destroyed shareholder value nearly for a decade.

To improve its business profile, Deutsche Bank has decided to focus on businesses where it has some competitive advantage and exit operations that had losses or low profitability. This means that Deutsche Bank will increase its focus on the corporate bank, while, on the other hand, it will downsize its investment banking activities through the exit of equities sales & trading and resize fixed income operations.

The goal is to have a smaller bank, but with a more sustainable business model less dependent on capital markets in the long term.

To achieve this, Deutsche Bank has decided to create a new Capital Release Unit (CRU), to where it transferred some €74 billion ($81 billion) of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) and €288 billion ($316 billion) of leverage exposure. This will improve the bank's revenue profile of the core businesses, being less exposed to volatile activities as seen in the next graph.



Source: Deutsche Bank

Its goal is to eliminate these assets from the bank's balance sheet in a few years, which is expected to have restructuring costs of more than about €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in the next three years plus accounting charges (non-cash expenses) and liberate some €5 billion ($5.5 billion) of capital until 2022. As the bank will cut more than 20% of its RWAs and leverage exposure, it does not expect to increase capital during the next few years, something that seems to be achievable given the significant reduction in total assets.

Other key financial targets are for core revenue of €25 billion ($27.5 billion) in 2022, adjusted costs of €17 billion ($18.7 billion) and a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 8%. This means that Deutsche Bank expects to increase revenue at about 2% per year during 2019-2022, reduce costs by 7% per year and increase its profitability (RoTE) from only 0.5% to a level much closer to its cost of capital.

This strategy makes sense and targets seem to be conservative, but execution risk is high and the bank's track record on previous restructuring programs is very weak. This means that Deutsche Bank needs to rapidly show good execution of its plan to gain credibility from investors, with a rapid reduction of its CRU assets the major milestone to achieve in the short term.

Indeed, Deutsche Bank expects the majority of the CRU run-down to happen in the next 18 months, showing that it wants to rapidly change the group's balance sheet and revenue profile, something that is key for a change of investor sentiment towards the bank.



Source: Deutsche Bank

Regarding its capitalization, Deutsche Bank currently has sound capital metrics that enable it to absorb capital hits without the need to raise new capital. In the short term, the restructuring program is expected to reduce Deutsche Bank's fully loaded core tier 1 (FL CET1) ratio to a level of about 13%, which is still an adequate level.

Going forward, due to its less risky business profile, it targets a FL CET1 ratio of at least 12.5% compared to 13% previously. Given this capital target, the bank only expects to have an excess capital position in 2021 and, therefore, has suspended dividend payments in the coming years.



Source: Deutsche Bank.

It expects to return capital to shareholders again starting in 2022, but this depends on sound execution of its business plan. The market seems to be giving the bank the benefit of the doubt, given that current consensus expectations expect a small dividend payment in 2020, contrary to the bank's own dividend guidance.

Earnings
Beyond its new strategy, Deutsche Bank also has announced recently earnings related to Q2 2019, maintaining a relatively weak performance, especially at its investment banking unit. Its revenues during the first six months of 2019 declined significantly (-5% year-on-year), while revenues in the investment banking dropped by 12% year-on-year (yoy), being the major drag to Deutsche Bank's top-line in the most recent quarters.

Equities and fixed-income reported an 18% decline in revenues compared to the same period of last year, showing that the bank's strategy of reducing its exposure to investment banking is the right one, after several years trying to defend its position in this industry.



Source: Deutsche Bank

Other units performed better reporting slightly higher revenues compared to H1 2018, which bodes well for the future as the bank decreases its reliance on more market-sensitive activities. Nevertheless, despite strong capital markets in the past few months, Deutsche Bank's asset management unit increased revenues by only 1% yoy, which is not an impressive achievement compared to some of its peers.

Even though asset management is an area where the bank has better growth prospects over the long term, this relatively weak performance shows that Deutsche Bank needs to regain customer confidence to grow its business and achieve revenue growth in core activities.

Regarding costs, Deutsche Bank's cost-to-income ratio was above 100% in the first half of 2019 (including the CRU unit), a terrible level that means Deutsche Bank was not able to make an operating profit during this period. This happens because revenue erosion is faster than cost reductions, showing that stabilizing revenues is critical for the bank to improve its financial profile.

Considering only the 'core bank', Deutsche Bank's cost-to-income ratio was 90%, still a very high level and one of the worst in the European banking sector. The bank targets a cost-to-income ratio of 70% by 2022 by cutting some €6 billion ($6.6 billion) in annual expenses and some revenue growth, which should be the key to reach its profitability target in the medium term.

Due to one-off deferred tax assets (DTA) impairment of €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in the past quarter, Deutsche Bank's reported bottom-line in Q2 2019 was negative in more than €3.1 billion ($3.4 billion). This means that the bank will report again an annual loss this year due to restructuring costs, but even excluding extraordinary items the profit in the last quarter was quite low which is a bad signal for the bottom-line in the next year. Despite the significant reported loss, Deutsche Bank's capital hit was only 32 basis points and its FL CET1 ratio was 13.4% at the end of June, still a good capitalization level within the European banking system.



Source: Deutsche Bank.

Going forward, Deutsche Bank is expected to report significant restructuring charges in the next few quarters due to its rundown of assets in the CRU unit and, according to analysts' estimates, only return to report a meaningful profit in 2021.

However, there is a significant execution risk regarding its business plan and the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further in the past two months due to increasing expectations of lower rates for longer in Europe, which has prompted the bank to slightly change its guidance of revenue target in 2022 from about €25 billion, to €24-25 billion. Given that Deutsche Bank's strategy was presented only two months ago, this is not a good signal and doesn't help investors and customers regain confidence in the bank rapidly.

Conclusion
Deutsche Bank's new strategy seems to make sense and will change significantly the bank's financial profile, which should lead to a much more sustainable and stronger banks in a few years. Then, it may pursue a different strategy, namely grow through acquisitions in the asset/wealth management industry.

After several years of very weak share price performance, Deutsche Bank currently trades at a very low valuation of only 0.27x book value. This means that downside seems limited right now and upside can be significant if the bank executes well its new strategy. However, this will take time, and Deutsche Bank can be a good deep value play for long-term investors, but for more risk-averse investors, I suggest to remain on the sidelines for the time being.
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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door Freddy » 19 sep 2019 14:41


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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door jens_dev » 19 sep 2019 15:46

Toezichthouder: Jullie hebben meer dan 3 jaar lang in jullie eigen obligaties gehandeld zonder onze goedkeuring :evil:
Deutsche: Oeps, vergeten! :oops:

Haha.
Never waste a good crisis
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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door And its gone! » 19 sep 2019 20:17

Gelukkig is de rest van de bankwereld te vertrouwen!

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Re: Deutsche Bank

Bericht door Lotus » 25 sep 2019 22:26

De problemen blijven maar opstapelen:

Duitse autoriteiten doen inval bij Deutsche [autolink=https://beursig.com/brokers-vergelijken/]Bank[/autolink] om witwaszaak Danske Bank
Gepubliceerd: 25-09-19 18:47
Laatste update: 25-09-19 18:47

De Duitse autoriteiten hebben woensdag een inval gedaan bij het hoofdkwartier van Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, bevestigt het Duitse ministerie van Justitie woensdag. Ze zijn op zoek naar informatie met betrekking tot de witwaszaak bij de Deense branchegenoot Danske Bank.
Het Duitse ministerie van Justitie onderzoekt of de grootste Duitse bank het witwassen van de Estse tak van Danske Bank faciliteerde door als een soort tussenpersoon te fungeren. Ook wordt gekeken of Deutsche Bank verdachte transacties niet te laat bij de autoriteiten meldde.

Danske Bank wordt inmiddels in meerdere landen onderzocht vanwege de witwaszaak, waaronder in de Verenigde Staten, Denemarken, het Verenigd Koninkrijk en Estland. De kleine Estse tak van Dankse Bank zou bij in totaal 200 miljard euro aan verdachte transacties betrokken zijn.

Het onderzoek van Justitie begon dinsdag en is ook woensdag nog bezig. Hierbij zijn drie aanklagers en negen agenten van de federale politie betrokken. Justitie kon niet zeggen hoelang het onderzoek in Frankfurt zal duren.

In een verklaring laat Deutsche Bank weten mee te werken. "Deutsche Bank heeft de feiten onderzocht en heeft de opgevraagde documenten voor zover mogelijk was geleverd", schrijft de bank.

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