Umicore

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Umi
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 11 Feb 2018 19:39

Stephan schreef:Blijkbaar is dit hier een forum in het Engels geworden ? :?


Djeezes, ik word ziek van die Vlaamse mentaliteit. Altijd maar dat klagen en zagen...
Zonder FF was dit topic doods!! Denk je dat ik hier tegen mn eigen blijf praten? Nu wordt er hier inhoudelijk bijgedragen & is het nog niet goed.
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 11 Feb 2018 19:45

I apologize if anyone was inconvenienced or offended. I have only been here couple weeks and found this forum informative. Many people here posted useful articles, links, and analysts notes. I'm all for a good team effort.

As you all know, Umicore is a long established company with a very long history, but now we all understand this is an new Umicore going forward. The story, the numbers, and TAM are amazing, and I hope everyone will continue to contribute to this forum (in Dutch, in English, or any language. I am hoping a Chinese investor will show up here one day soon with on the ground reports since 100% of Umicore RBM is in China and Korea currently. It is 2018, thank goodness we have Google Translate!
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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Stephan » 11 Feb 2018 21:04

Umi schreef:
Stephan schreef:Blijkbaar is dit hier een forum in het Engels geworden ? :?


Djeezes, ik word ziek van die Vlaamse mentaliteit. Altijd maar dat klagen en zagen...
Zonder FF was dit topic doods!! Denk je dat ik hier tegen mn eigen blijf praten? Nu wordt er hier inhoudelijk bijgedragen & is het nog niet goed.

Oei, umi niet in "carnavalsfeer" blijkbaar ! Slechte dag :?:

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 12 Feb 2018 00:36

FF2170 schreef:
The way things are going, it's entirely possible Umicore will be able to deliver REBIT growth rate of 30% for the next few years (or more?). Something like:

if we assume REBIT growing at 30%:
2017A 398m (REBIT ex/ discontinued)
2018E 517
2019E 672
2020E 874
2021E 1136


I think you're getting to excited.
Umicore expects +-500M REBIT in 2018 & 675 à 725M in 2020.

So that's about 18% REBIT-growth a year till 2020...
But as we bear in mind that the capacity will rise from 100 k ton in 2019 till 175 k ton in 2021. & with that rise wille come a bigger portion of "higher nickel containing grades" which I presume will have higher margins cause of complexity & lower cobalt grades. I can see growth accelerate again after 2020.
So 75% volume growth in 2 years. In REBIT-levels expect even higher growth (see below)

Nickel 6 (5,91 $/lb x6 = 35,5)
Cobalt 2 (36,97 $/lb x2 = 73,94)
Manganese 2 (0,93 $/lb x 2 = 1,87)
--------------------------------------------
raw material price = 111

vs
8 => 47,28
1 => 36,97
1 => 0,93
---------------------
raw material price = 85,2

So basically the 622 is +- 30% more expensive as the 811.
I've read somewhere that the energy-density/g is +-15% higher in the 811.
Next to that Umicore will increase its 'high density LCO-material' for mobile applications which is a high margin product as well!




I've put some numbers & multiples in Excel. I've tried to be conservative.
Basically I start my projections from the 2020 outlook of 675 to 725M REBIT & try to be conservative with growth.
I'm not a growth investor so I never got into de DCF model. But I've pimped it my own way.
I use a 16x forward multiple on 2027 REBIT ( only used 15% growth for the last year) for my 2026 price target, from there I counted back @ 0,89x.
U kunt de afbeeldingen in deze bijlage niet bekijken, registreer hier en bekijk de bijlage.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 12 Feb 2018 03:16

Umi schreef:
Nickel 6 (5,91 $/lb x6 = 35,5)
Cobalt 2 (36,97 $/lb x2 = 73,94)
Manganese 2 (0,93 $/lb x 2 = 1,87)
--------------------------------------------
raw material price = 111

vs
8 => 47,28
1 => 36,97
1 => 0,93
---------------------
raw material price = 85,2

So basically the 622 is +- 30% more expensive as the 811.
I've read somewhere that the energy-density/g is +-15% higher in the 811.
Next to that Umicore will increase its 'high density LCO-material' for mobile applications which is a high margin product as well!

That's good information. I don't recall seeing this calculation presented in this manner with raw material prices for 10 pounds of this stuff.

It's apple and oranges, pounds vs. kWh, but .... I do recall in a meeting, a few years ago, Elon explained the floor for cells was about $80 per kWh because of raw materials cost. Because of that I always understood cell price of $100 per kWh was pretty much the limit and a difficult goal to reach (which makes LG Chem's achievement amazing with the Chevy Bolt). To go lower than that in any material way something fundamental would have to be invented and proven, such as solid state. I do recall reading somewhere solid state has the potential to be materially cheaper, I don't recall by how much cheaper. If we see that actually happening on the horizon we will immediate get off Sprinter's back.

When it comes to battery chemistry evolution I will only believe it when they actually have it in cars and tested. They obviously can't do 811 today otherwise I would be driving one already. Nonetheless, we know the direction is to use more nickel.

As to your spreadsheet, at my age going to the supermarket picking up a green banana is long term planning. I don't like to look out too far, especially to 2025, I might be dead by then. This is tech investing for those young at heart, I am only interesting in what this business is going to do in the next 3-5 years, and the stock in the next one year. I will of course re-evaluate every six months, so the hope is we will ride Sprinter for a long time.

You tell us Grynberg is conservative and I believe you. It is very interesting here in Feb 2018 he gives the street a bracket of 675 to 725 three years ahead (FY2020). I will now simply assume he will deliver €1B.

I told you, €100/sh by 2025 would be very disappointing to me. I am too old to wait and if I thought that was the case I would have already said bye bye.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor FF2170 » 12 Feb 2018 03:51

Buses and big trucks (semi) will transition very quickly as soon as the TCO is cheaper, they are economic buys.

Passenger cars will transition slower, in the early years, because they are emotional buys.

http://www.businessinsider.com/almost-h ... 025-2018-2

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor 14-11-2014 » 12 Feb 2018 06:09

Zonder FF was dit topic doods!! Denk je dat ik hier tegen mn eigen blijf praten?

Had de afspraak op een Engelstalig forum gemaakt, en plaats hier desnoods soms een verwijzing wanneer dat echt nuttig is!?

Het tegen zichzelf praten gebeurt eigenlijk ook hier, maar dan in het Engels op een Nederlandstalig forum. Rare keuze. Nu wees u blijkbaar iemand op een meertalig (blijkbaar Chinees/Engels/Nederlands) forum, dat volgens uzelf doods is. Wat ik zie is de suggestieve "SA" meuk met een Amerikaanse service with a smile, wat u op de belangrijkste punten deftig nuanceert of moet corrigeren. Keurig! Dat had u op eigen kracht ook wel kunnen brengen. Geen verwijt, maar een constatering is dat "tips" van het niveau zijn van een artikel in De Tijd, tonen hoe je opeenvolgende getallen met 1,3 vermenigvuldigd, of, spectaculairder, dat u best een bod op Umicore kunt uitbrengen (delisting), gevolgd door een NYSE IPO. Risico 0, brutowinst 33,33% van de beurswaarde van de Umiocre

Ik ben "niet tegen" een internationaal subforum voor afspraakjes, wat de meesten (die niets bijdragen en dat in een andere taal ook niet zullen gaan doen) dan kunnen overslaan.

Het is bijna de Nederlandse mentatliteit. Anderen trots wijzen op de hoerenbuurt, en dan boos worden wanneer er klachten komen omdat het gebiedje overspoeld wordt door AirBNB'ende Engelsen. Is er iets uit amerika komen overwaaien, dan hoop ik meestal op een oostenwind. Of op een wind die in een ander, international subforumpje gaat liggen.

In English: I couldn't even be arsed to point out that we've already got a bleedin' Umicore Sprinter™, by ING.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 12 Feb 2018 08:54

FF2170 schreef:That's good information. I don't recall seeing this calculation presented in this manner with raw material prices for 10 pounds of this stuff.

It's apple and oranges, pounds vs. kWh, but .... I do recall in a meeting, a few years ago, Elon explained the floor for cells was about $80 per kWh because of raw materials cost. Because of that I always understood cell price of $100 per kWh was pretty much the limit and a difficult goal to reach (which makes LG Chem's achievement amazing with the Chevy Bolt). To go lower than that in any material way something fundamental would have to be invented and proven, such as solid state. I do recall reading somewhere solid state has the potential to be materially cheaper, I don't recall by how much cheaper. If we see that actually happening on the horizon we will immediate get off Sprinter's back.

When it comes to battery chemistry evolution I will only believe it when they actually have it in cars and tested. They obviously can't do 811 today otherwise I would be driving one already. Nonetheless, we know the direction is to use more nickel.

As to your spreadsheet, at my age going to the supermarket picking up a green banana is long term planning. I don't like to look out too far, especially to 2025, I might be dead by then. This is tech investing for those young at heart, I am only interesting in what this business is going to do in the next 3-5 years, and the stock in the next one year. I will of course re-evaluate every six months, so the hope is we will ride Sprinter for a long time.

You tell us Grynberg is conservative and I believe you. It is very interesting here in Feb 2018 he gives the street a bracket of 675 to 725 three years ahead (FY2020). I will now simply assume he will deliver €1B.

I told you, €100/sh by 2025 would be very disappointing to me. I am too old to wait and if I thought that was the case I would have already said bye bye.


That calculation is just a basic calculation from the average cost of raw material. Its not all that apples vs. oranges cause of the fact NMC 811 wins 2 times, lower raw material cost & higher energy density (Kwh/kg).
I don't believe too much of Musk's prediction though. I like him as a visionair, but sometimes he's a bit to media-
horny :lol:
LG Chem uses Umicore's NMC materials if I'm correct (can't find any source though).
https://pushevs.com/2017/09/08/lg-chem- ... next-year/
Here's a good link for the future of LiB. Off course this sector is fast moving & prone to disruption. But solid state will also require Cathode materials. It will be key for Umicore to do some fast research. They are spending millions for research for this matter since many years, so they built up quite some knowledge. Might be not the winner if disruption kicks in, but they will remain a key player in that market (or they will buy themselves in). But we gotta keep an eye on disruption cause the valuation of Umicore in the future will suggest strong growth, if that growth drops down, the multiple people want to pay will drop significantly & so will the share price.
Using more Nickel is an ending story cause of the safety/stability of the battery.
He's conservative, but not that conservative...
as for the spreadsheet, I used conservative growth rates for E&ST cause I suspect margins to come down a bit when the business matures.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor Umi » 12 Feb 2018 10:09

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ices-surge

zoals al eerder gezegd; browser openen in private -> google openen -> link plakken in google -> klikken & klaar.

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Re: Umicore

Berichtdoor charel01 » 12 Feb 2018 12:16

Een remonte na de dolle voorbije beursweek dus.
Een beursweek waar Umicore indruk maakte door donderdagavond in 2,5 uur 900 miljoen euro op te halen, uitgerekend op een ogenblik dat op Wall Street de Dow Jones meer dan 1.000 punten onderuit ging.

Umicore trok vlak na opening een spurtje van ruim 4 procent naar 46,38 euro. Daarmee ligt het vorige tussentijds record, 45,29 euro op 15 januari, aan diggelen. De materialengroep grossiert in binnen- en buitenland in koopadviezen na de forse investering die ze aankondigde in batterijmaterialen.

Een belangrijke factor achter de nieuwe recordkoers lijkt dit verhaal op Bloomberg te zijn. Daarin staat te lezen dat de Koreaanse batterijproducent Samsung SDI overweegt een belang te nemen in 'een recyclagbedrijf', om de aanlevering van kobalt te verzekeren.

Samsung zegt niet met wie er onderhandeld wordt, maar noemt zelf in een e-mail American Manganese en Umicore als belangrijkste specialisten in recyclage van kobalt uit afgedankte telefoons. Umicore recycleert in Hoboken als 'bovengrondse mijnbouwer' allerhande (edel)metalen uit elektronica.

Umicore vertaalt koopadviezen en het Koreaanse bericht in 3,2 procent winst naar 45,47 euro.

Zelfs de meest overtuigde scepticus rond het aandeel, Credit Suisse, draait een beetje bij. Het advies blijft verkopen, maar het koersdoel stijgt wel van 30 naar 34 euro. 'We verhogen in reactie op de jaarresultaten en de investeringen onze winstprognose tot 2020 met 20 procent', klinkt het. 'We blijven er ook van overtuigd dat Umicore best geplaatst is om munt te slaan uit de groei in batterijmaterialen. Alleen denken we dat de huidige beurskoers impliceert dat het bedrijf tot 2040 meer dan de helft van de markt zal blijven controleren. Dat is onwaarschijnlijk, gelet op op de strategische initiatieven van Europese en Aziatische concurrenten'.
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