Pandora A/S

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jens_dev
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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor jens_dev » 11 Jan 2018 11:24

Zo, heb alles even doorgenomen.

Zwakker dan verwachte resultaten voor 2017, maar het probleem ligt toch vooral bij de guidance voor de komende jaren, die een verdere groeivertraging impliceert. Ook de EBITDA-marge zou dalen naar zo'n 35% (tegenover 37% in 2017). Dat blijft wel zeer hoog.

Ik heb mijn prognose voor de vks in 2017 met zo'n 10% verlaagd naar 4900m DKK (door hoger dan verwachte capex en tax expense). Belastinghervorming in de VS zal in 2017 een negatieve impact hebben, met mogelijk een impairment op hun deferred tax assets. Dat zien we deze dagen bij wel meer bedrijven die actief zijn in de VS.

Enkele losse punten:
- Pandora wil tegen 2022 ongeveer 50% van de omzet halen uit de non-charms categorieën
- Ze willen evolueren van wholesale naar voornamelijk retail, waar de marges logischerwijs hoger liggen, met nog meer eigen stores i.p.v. franchises
- Er zal meer gefocust worden op online. Ambitie: 10-15% van omzet (komende van circa 5%)
- CFO wordt vervangen.

Guidance voor de komende jaren:
- Omzet excl. valutaschommelingen +7 tot +10% (met slechts low- to mid-single digit growth in eigen stores; forse vertraging hier)
- EBITDA-marge rond 35%; daling door hogere kosten (meer eigen winkels, verschuiving aanbod naar non-charms)
- Capex: 5% van omzet
- Tax expense: 21-22%

Heb die guidance even in Excel gezet voor 2018-2020:

Pand.png

Assumpties:
- Omzetgroei van 5% in DKK (voorzichtiger dan guidance Pandora)
- EBITDA-marge van 35%
- Capex: 5% van omzet
- Effective tax rate: 22%

Vks zal nu dus ongeveer met 5% per jaar stijgen. De nettoschuldpositie zou moeten dalen, ondanks een aanhoudende stijging van het dividend. Aantrekkelijk vks-rendement van 8% voor 2018, 8,5% voor 2019 en 9% voor 2020.

Guidance van Pandora ligt duidelijk lager dan die van de markt, vandaar de afstraffing. Vooral de lagere EBITDA-marge heeft impact. Vergelijk zelf:

guidance.png

Eén ding moet je wel beseffen: Pandora is geen growth stock dat aan een k/w van 20 noteert. Nee, het aandeel noteert aan een k/w van misschien 12, en verder dalend in de komende jaren. Er wordt, volgens mij, dus al amper groei verrekend in de huidige koers. Hou er ook rekening mee dat er shorters actief zijn in het aandeel, die dalingen en stijgingen versterken. Ik ga mijn positie lichtjes verhogen, via de turbo.
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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor jens_dev » 11 Jan 2018 12:57

Faire waarde volgens mij minimum 750 DKK.
Dividendrendement van 7% (op basis van stijging naar 40 DKK p/a) zou een bodem moeten vormen.
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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor jens_dev » 11 Jan 2018 13:29

Never waste a good crisis

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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor Warrant » 11 Jan 2018 20:34

Akkoord met jouw analyse Jens, ik maak me geen zorgen om deze daling. Gezien de huidige waardering zie ik weinig risico, zeker aangezien de waardering ieder jaar nog goedkoper wordt omdat ze toch een degelijke groei voorspellen.
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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor jens_dev » 16 Jan 2018 15:47

Capital Markets Day vandaag.
Grote presentatie:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... y_2018.pdf
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Re: Pandora A/S

Berichtdoor Nephus » 16 Jan 2018 22:51

Pandora Soars as CEO Reassures Owners the Worst Is Behind Them

By Christian Wienberg
January 15, 2018, 10:17 AM EST
Updated on January 16, 2018, 6:12 AM EST

Danish jeweler holds first capital markets day in 2 years
Investor meeting comes as hedge funds speculate against stock

Silver and white gold rings sit on display in the window of a Pandora A/S jewelry store in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Thursday, Sept. 12, 2013. The Danish jeweler, which has gone from stock market darling to disaster to darling again since its 2010 initial public offering, is taking a page from fast-fashion retailers like Zara, which introduces designs as often as twice a week. Photographer: Freya Ingrid Morales/Bloomberg
Shares in Pandora A/S recouped much of last week’s sudden loss as management spends the day reassuring investors that 2018 will mark a turning point for the troubled jewelry maker.

Chief Executive Officer Anders Colding Friis and the departing head of finance, Peter Vekslund, promised to address investor concerns and pledged handsome returns, during a presentation that won praise from analysts once critical of management’s communication strategy. Tuesday’s capital markets day is the Danish company’s first since 2016.

The CEO acknowledged 2017 had been marred by “hiccups” and said there are “things we can do better.” He also made clear Pandora will “expect to return quite a lot of cash to our shareholders” in 2018-2022. The stock gained as much as 6.4 percent, its biggest increase since November.


Friis is confronting shareholders who have lived through a 27 percent stock-price decline in 2017, and steep losses in early 2018. Management said on Thursday it didn’t quite live up to its targets for last year and signaled profit growth will be more modest through 2022. The only investors to make money on last week’s bad news were the hedge funds that bet against Pandora, after consistently ignoring its assurances.


Reversal of Fate

Pandora used to be a stock-market darling, consistently exceeding its guidance. Its shares jumped 17-fold in the five years through 2016 as management beat market expectations quarter after quarter and revenue and net income both tripled. But as the company has grown, Friis has tried to make the point that a bigger base means slower growth. That message is proving hard to get across.

“Pandora has been under siege the past year by foreign hedge funds who are skeptical about its economic future,” Per Hansen, an investment economist at Nordnet, said in a note on Tuesday before the investor day started. “It’s now a question of delivering as convincing a presentation as possible, so that the hedge funds find nothing to chase and move on.”

Hansen says criticism that Pandora has faced “for being somewhat closed and not humble enough” was justified. “It’s a question of managing expectations,” he said. “Pandora hasn’t been particularly good at that the past year.”

Some hedge funds have recently cashed in on profits. Lone Pine Capital and Coatue Management both reduced their short bets after Thursday’s selloff. But other funds have joined the speculation against Pandora. BlackRock Investment Management placed its first official short bet last week. Indus Capital Partners also created a short position, according to a regulatory filing late on Friday. (The regulator only discloses changes in positions for funds that short at least 0.5 percent of a company.)


Hansen says hedge funds shorting Pandora “will presumably remain a large uncertainty factor.”

Aside from a challenging U.S. retail market, Pandora said a lack of product innovation has been problematic, according to its investor presentation on Tuesday.

Data from IHS Markit shows that about 12 percent of Pandora’s stock is still being shorted. That’s down from a 12.8 percent peak in November, but considerably higher than the roughly 1 percent short interest a year ago. Short traders bet that a stock will decline in value.

Pandora analysts remained mostly positive on the stock throughout 2017. But after last week’s announcement, several banks cut their earnings estimates and targets. At least one, SEB, lowered its recommendation.

Pandora said on Tuesday it will provide guidance specifically for 2018 on Feb. 6. As in previous years, the company will add to shareholder returns by buying back its own stock. Lars Topholm, an equity analyst at Carnegie who once referred to Pandora as bordering on “uninvestable” because of a lack of transparency, prefaced a question to the CEO on Tuesday by praising the “good presentation” he’d just delivered.

According to analyst data compiled by Bloomberg, there are still 15 buys, 3 holds and just one sell recommendation on Pandora. The average price target indicates a return of about 40 percent in 2018.
Bron: Bloomberg